Economic Data and Growth

In February, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity expanded for the second consecutive month to its highest level since September, with the index for general business activity advancing from 12.6 to 16.3. This month, 31.0% of firms reported increases in activity, while 14.7% of firms noted decreases. The indexes for new orders and shipments fell, moving from 14.4 to 11.7 and from 9.5 to 0.3, respectively. Meanwhile, the employment index turned negative for the first time since June, falling 11.0 points, as the average employee workweek plunged 20.7 points to -11.6.

The prices paid index declined from 46.9 to 38.9, its lowest reading since January 2025, while the prices received index fell from 27.8 to 16.7, its lowest reading since December 2024. As has been the case for many months, the prices received index remained lower than the prices paid index, indicating that manufacturers have been absorbing a portion of higher costs paid.

Looking ahead, indicators showing expectations for future growth grew after two months of declines. After falling 12.6 points in January, expectations for future business activity soared 17.3 points to 42.8 in February. The rise came from an increase in the proportion of firms expecting an increase in activity (52.0%). At the same time, the number of firms anticipating a decrease in activity (9.2%) was virtually unchanged in February. The future new orders index rose from 32.9 to 54.1, its highest reading since November 2024, and the future shipments index moved up from 40.8 to 47.4. On the other hand, the capital expenditures index fell from 30.3 to 14.4, its lowest reading since September. The future prices paid and prices received indexes declined from 66.6 to 54.1 and from 61.8 to 50.1, respectively. Additionally, the index for future employment stepped down from 28.8 to 14.9.

In February, firms were asked about changes in core customer price sensitivity and anticipated cost changes. Of those responses, 30.8% of firms view core customers as more price sensitive since last quarter. Meanwhile, 39.1% of firms expect price changes in their industry’s costs, while 60.9% do not. When asked how they anticipate competitors to respond, 77.8% expect them to raise prices in the near term, while none believe they will lower prices. When asked, 58.3% of firms said they have experienced a net negative impact from tariffs over the past year, but 16.7% have seen a net positive impact. Looking forward, 46.2% expect a net negative impact over the next year from tariffs, while 15.4% predict a net positive impact.