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Philadelphia Manufacturing Growth Slows as Optimism Fades

In March, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity continued to expand but was less widespread than in February. The index for current general business activity fell from 18.1 to 12.5, the second consecutive monthly decline. Nearly 31% of firms reported increased activity this month, while 18.1% saw decreases in March compared to 22.5% reporting declines in February. Meanwhile, 46.7% experienced no change. The indexes for new orders and shipments both plummeted from 21.9 and 26.3 to 8.7 and 2.0, respectively. On the other hand, employment expectations rose to a multiyear high, increasing from 5.3 to 19.7. The average employee workweek index grew from 2.9 to 8.7.

The prices paid index increased nearly eight points to 48.3, the highest reading since July 2022, while the prices received index slipped three points to 29.8. As has been the case for many months, the prices received index remains lower than the prices paid index, indicating manufacturers have been absorbing a sizable portion of those higher costs paid.

Looking ahead, nearly all future indicators decreased. The index for future general business activity fell again, from 27.8 in February to 5.6 in March. A higher proportion of firms (25.8%) expect decreases in activity, compared to last month’s reading of 18.5%, while 31.4% expect activity to improve. Additionally, the future new orders and shipments indexes plunged from 33.1 and 36.5to 2.3 and 11.3, respectively. The index for future employment dropped from 23.7 to 17.3, a smaller reduction than in the prior month. The capital expenditures index slipped from 14.0 to 13.4. The future prices paid index fell 14 points to 44.6, while the future prices received index fell six points to 39.7, indicating manufacturers remain concerned about future costs rising but not as much as before.

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