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Optimism Grows, But Tariffs and Strong Dollar Raise Concerns

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 49.4 in December to 50.1 in January, signaling nominal growth in manufacturing after six months of contraction. Both factory production and new orders increased for the first time in six months. Employment also rose for the third month in a row, and the rate of job creation is the highest since July. Supplier delivery times lengthened, indicating busier supply chains, but this was offset by the greatest drop in inventories in 17 months.

The improvement in sentiment was notable in the manufacturing sector, soaring to the highest reading since May 2022, adding to suggestions that activity may improve further in the coming months. Respondents cited a more business-friendly new administration in terms of looser regulation and lower taxes as beneficial to the outlook. On the other hand, others cited concern over tariffs, a strong dollar and higher prices.

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