News & Insights

In August, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.5% annual gain, the weakest annual gain in over two years. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 2.1% in August, down from 2.3% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 1.6% year-over-year, down from 1.8%. Among the 20 cities, New York again posted the highest annual gain at 6.1%, followed by Chicago at 5.9% and Cleveland at 4.7%. Tampa again recorded the lowest annual return, with prices falling 3.3%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index ticked down 0.3% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City and 20-City Composites both decreased 0.6%. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index and the 10-City and 20-City Composites all edged up 0.2%.

The combination of high financing costs and prices remaining near record highs has limited activity. Before seasonal adjustment, all cities except Chicago saw prices drop in August. The Midwest and Northeast markets continued to outperform other regions. Meanwhile, the Sun Belt and Western markets continued declining, including Tampa (down 3.3%), Phoenix (down 1.7%), Miami (down 1.7%), San Francisco (down 1.5%) and Denver (down 0.7%).

Despite high mortgage rates continuing to weigh on buyer demand, it appears the housing market is finding a new equilibrium. Several major markets in decline signal recent appreciation has ended. These adjustments may lead to a more sustainable market in the long run.

Consumer confidence decreased 1.0 point in October to 94.6. Among its components, the Present Situation Index improved while the Expectations Index declined, with consumers’ pessimism about future job availability and future business conditions being partially mitigated by consumers’ views of current job availability improving for the first time since December 2024.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, increased 1.8 points to 129.3. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell 2.9 points to 71.5, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation improved, with 27.8% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” up from September (26.9%), while 18.4% said jobs were “hard to get,” slightly higher than September (18.2%) and up from 14.5% in January. Looking to the future, 27.8% anticipate fewer available jobs in the next six months, up from 25.7% the prior month.

Mentions of high prices and inflation continued to top the list of topics influencing consumers’ views of the economy. Meanwhile, mentions of tariffs continued to decline in October but remained elevated. Comments on U.S. politics increased, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned as a key concern. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations inched up from 5.8% to 5.9% in October. Meanwhile, 52.8% of consumers, compared to 51.1% in September, expect interest rates to rise, and a smaller share of consumers (26.2% vs. 26.9% in September) expect rates to fall.

Buying plans for cars increased in October, while buying plans for homes decreased. Consumers’ plans for buying big-ticket items were little changed in October but have started to pick up after weakening earlier this year. Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services rose after September’s pullback, and vacation intentions seem poised for a recovery. Preliminary data suggest consumers’ holiday spending will be down this year. Overall, consumers’ views of their current and future financial situation strengthened from September.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District declined in October, but at a slower pace than the previous month, with the composite manufacturing index moving up from -17 to -4. Meanwhile, the local business conditions index increased from -12 in September to -1 in October. Despite improvements in most indicators in October, manufacturers are more pessimistic about the future, with the outlook for future local business conditions falling from -1 in September to -5 in October. The Fifth Federal Reserve District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments moved into positive territory, rising from -20 to 4. New orders and employment remained negative but contracted at a slower pace, stepping up to -6 and -10, respectively. The vendor lead time index declined from 10 to 6 in October. Meanwhile, the share of firms reporting backlogs eased, moving from -21 to -16. The average growth rate of prices paid and prices received both fell in October.

Looking ahead, firms still expect both price indexes to increase in the next 12 months, but with both rising at a slower rate than forecasted in September. Expectations for future shipments jumped from 0 to 13, while new orders increased from 8 to 12. Expectations for backlogs worsened, falling from -8 to -12. Meanwhile, firms’ expectations about equipment and software spending remained negative but improved from -9 to -6. Expectations for capital expenditures moved into positive territory, increasing from -11 to 1. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District are somewhat more optimistic about new investment plans while remaining cautious about future business conditions.

In October, Texas factory activity continued to expand and at the same pace as the prior month. The production index was unchanged from September at 5.2, remaining below the average of 9.6. Meanwhile, other measures posted mixed results for the month. The new orders index inched up 0.9 points to -1.7. Capacity utilization fell 5.0 points to -1.1, while shipments declined 0.9 points to 5.8.

Perceptions of manufacturing business conditions remained negative in October, with the general business conditions index stepping up 3.7 points to -5.0. Meanwhile, the outlook also improved but remained negative, with the company outlook index ticking up 0.7 points to -0.3. The uncertainty index jumped 8.3 points to 22.2, well above the series average of 17.2.

Labor market indicators suggest an increase in headcounts but a decline in the workweek in October, with the employment index rising 5.4 points to 2.0 and the hours worked index falling 8.9 points to -5.5. Nearly 18% of firms reported net hiring while a smaller percentage (15.7%) noted net layoffs.

Price and wage pressures eased somewhat in October. The prices paid for raw materials index fell 10.0 points to 33.4. Meanwhile, the prices received for finished goods index declined 4.0 points to 7.7. The wages and benefits index decreased 1.7 points to 14.2, staying below the series average of 21.

The outlook for future manufacturing activity weakened in October, with the future production index falling 10.6 points to 21.0. Meanwhile, the future general business activity index and future company outlook index both stepped down, declining to 7.0 and 7.1, respectively.

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered its interest rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% at its October meeting. The FOMC also concluded its multiyear reduction of its Treasury holdings but will continue to shrink its holdings of mortgage-backed securities. In a change to its previous statement, the FOMC noted that inflation has moved up some since earlier this year, but available indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace. Nonetheless, the committee judged that downside risks to employment warranted an additional cut to its interest rate target. Two FOMC members—Stephen Miran and Jeffrey Schmid— Miran preferred to lower the target range by 50 basis points, while Schmid preferred to keep the rate steady.

In the press conference following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the data that have remained available suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since their previous meeting, with conditions in the labor market cooling while inflation remains elevated. Chairman Powell also noted that a further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a forgone conclusion—“far from it.”

The FOMC’s summary of economic projections, which maps out the Federal Reserve’s expectations for where interest rates may be headed in the future, generally is released in conjunction with every other FOMC meeting. Since the September meeting included a release of economic projections, there was not a release in conjunction with the October FOMC meeting. The September summary signaled a more dovish stance than the June summary. Although nine Federal Reserve officials projected an additional 50 basis points worth of cuts in that projection, implying the likelihood of a December cut, Chairman Powell expressed that policymakers now bring “strongly different views about how to proceed.”

Thermo Fisher Scientific’s brand-new facility in Mebane, North Carolina, represents a big step forward for medical supply chains in the U.S.—and it’s all thanks to cutting-edge automation, overseen by workers drawn from one of the country’s hotspots for medical manufacturing talent.

The big numbers: The facility, whose grand opening was attended by North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein in August, is capable of producing an impressive 40 million precision pipette tips per week—crucial components that enable precise liquid handling in everything from clinical diagnostics to pharmaceutical research.

• The facility will create more than 100 jobs in total, including many highly skilled (and paid) automation engineer positions.
• The opening follows Thermo Fisher’s announcement earlier this year that it would commit $2 billion in investments in its U.S. manufacturing capabilities over the next four years.

The post-COVID-19 landscape: The company started working on the Mebane project after the COVID-19 pandemic, during which there was a shortage of tips, said Thermo Fisher President of Laboratory Chemicals and Laboratory Plastic Essentials Erica Hirsch.

• Thermo Fisher worked with the Department of Health and Human Services and other agencies to understand the problem with the domestic supply chain, she said.
• The answer? The company would need to invest in high-quality automation tip manufacturing, which could be scaled up as needed—especially important in the case of another pandemic.

The automation: As Thermo Fisher had learned from its operations at other facilities, the best plan for tip manufacturing is to focus on automation.

• Automation is essential to ensure consistent quality and reproducibility, not to mention a high volume of production, said Hirsch.
• The Mebane facility was a “dream opportunity,” she said, to create a highly automated facility from the ground up, instead of adding automation to an existing facility.
• The standards were high: the production lines have little direct human involvement, again to ensure every tip is as precisely engineered as possible. Each line is managed by a highly skilled technician.

The big picture: The COVID-19 pandemic also taught the company the importance of shoring up domestic supply chains and building in redundancy. In fact, said Hirsch, having redundant facilities in every region in the world has become a priority, both due to the lessons of the pandemic and to rising geopolitical tensions.

• The company has more than 7,800 workers in North Carolina, one of its major bases of operations in the U.S. Its North Carolina facilities do everything from conducting clinical research and producing pharmaceuticals to manufacturing laboratory products.

Workforce: Hirsch emphasized the close relationship that Thermo Fisher has with local trade schools and colleges, ensuring it can staff advanced manufacturing facilities like the one in Mebane.

• The company works to recruit locally and has many apprenticeship programs, including for the automation engineers at the Mebane plant.
• Mold and machine makers are also high on its list of skilled workers to train, through apprenticeships, internships and more.
• “We need to make sure we have a skilled workforce, and a workforce that spans all stages of careers,” said Hirsch.

AI: With AI on the industry’s mind, Thermo Fisher is leading the pack in integrating AI tools into all its processes, including at Mebane.

• Earlier this month, Thermo Fisher announced a partnership with OpenAI that focuses on accelerating scientific innovation, enhancing productivity and reducing complexity. As part of the collaboration, Thermo Fisher is embedding OpenAI Application Programming Interfaces into critical areas of its business—ranging from product development, service delivery, customer engagement and operational efficiency.
• AI will be critical for Mebane as it is a highly automated, data-driven facility, said Hirsch.

Looking ahead: Thermo Fisher continues to be committed to offering products that combine high-quality scientific expertise with industry-leading technologies, helping its customers to accelerate life-sciences research and develop new therapies for patients who are waiting, said Hirsch.

• “The company’s mission—to enable its customers to make the world healthier, cleaner and safer—fuels the passion of its colleagues and drives the many contributions they make each day,” she added.

Photo credit: Office of Governor Josh Stein

WASHINGTON, D.C.— The National Association of Manufacturers today released Manufacturing’s Roadmap to AI and Energy Dominance, a blueprint outlining the steps policymakers must take to strengthen America’s energy and artificial intelligence dominance—including comprehensive permitting reform.

Manufacturers are leading the way—integrating AI into every part of their operations, from product design, to shop floor operations, to supply chain management. More than half of manufacturers (51%) already use AI, and 80% say it will be essential to grow or even maintain their business by 2030, according to the Manufacturing Leadership Council, the digital transformation division of the NAM.

The roadmap lays out principles that will advance U.S. energy production and, in turn, unlock the full potential of AI. AI is transforming manufacturing—but without abundant, affordable energy and a resilient and reliable power grid, America risks falling behind. AI-powered modern manufacturing depends on an ambitious energy and innovation policy framework—which can be achieved in part by reforms to America’s broken permitting system.

“Manufacturing sits at the crossroads of America’s energy dominance, AI leadership and the strength of our power grid,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “If America wants to win the global race for AI, we must first win on energy. That means advancing the administration’s goals for energy dominance—through bipartisan, comprehensive permitting reform, modernized infrastructure and an all-of-the-above energy strategy that allows manufacturers to innovate, build and grow right here at home.”

AI-powered manufacturing depends on forward-looking energy and innovation policies. Policymakers must do the following:

• Reform America’s broken permitting process to get shovels in the ground faster—with fewer delays and less uncertainty. Eighty percent of manufacturers say that the length and complexity of the permitting process is harmful to increasing investment.
• Bolster American energy dominance. America’s energy demand is surging—and the pace isn’t slowing. Manufacturers need to be able to produce and use every energy source available to meet this critical moment. Ninety-four percent of manufacturers support permitting reforms around the buildout of energy generation, infrastructure and products.
• Ensure a reliable, resilient and affordable grid that can power manufacturing growth and data center operations. Eighty percent of manufacturers want the Trump administration to work with Congress to deliver comprehensive permitting reform legislation to increase energy generation and grid modernization to supply the energy needed to power both AI growth and traditional manufacturing.
• Strengthen American AI leadership by fostering innovation and preventing regulatory overreach. Eighty-seven percent of manufacturers say it is important for lawmakers to understand how manufacturers use AI.

Read the full roadmap here.

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.90 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

In an ever-changing world, collaboration is more necessary than ever for solving the challenges facing our manufacturing workforce. Last week, in Charlotte, North Carolina, the Manufacturing Institute’s annual Workforce Summit united more than 300 industry leaders to do just that, tackling workforce challenges while redefining what manufacturing represents for tomorrow.

The backdrop: MI Chief Program Officer Gardner Carrick opened the summit by highlighting a shift in public perception. Americans view manufacturing more positively now, and attitudes toward education and career pathways are evolving. As confidence in the value of a traditional four-year degree declines, new opportunities are emerging for skills-based careers in modern manufacturing.

• But, Carrick noted, the industry must stay on the offensive. “The next generation of workers doesn’t need convincing that technology is exciting; they live it,” he said.
• “The story isn’t that we’ve changed; it’s that we’re leading,” Carrick concluded. “And that’s what will inspire the next generation.”

Quick insight: Participants at the summit, who came from dozens of manufacturing sectors and many nonprofit and partner organizations, discussed practical, transformative solutions in every session. Here are some of the big takeaways:

• Rethink education: ABB’s Jason Green emphasized the need to get technology into the hands of students early and to reimagine career and technical education, including real-world learning and applications. Apprenticeships built on company needs can help create talent pipelines that are both practical and custom-fit.
• Invest in culture: Lisa Winton of Winton Machine explained why she views culture as a competitive advantage, especially for small manufacturers. Her team leverages local training resources and encourages multigenerational learning, where mentorship flows both ways.
• Design for flexibility: Amatrol’s Paul Perkins urged companies to mold jobs around people, not the other way around. By creating fluid career paths and removing unnecessary barriers, manufacturers can use mobility itself as an attraction strategy.
• Focus on skills: Walmart.org’s Sean Murphy and the MI’s Sytease Geib highlighted skills-based strategies that strengthen pipelines, accelerate and validate learning, enhance retention and unlock meaningful career growth.
• Empowering the frontline: Jerry Dolinsky, CEO of Dozuki, and Dr. Rebecca Powers Teeters of 3M highlighted how AI-driven digital tools can help frontline workers. Connected workers can bridge skills gaps, boost engagement and drive productivity, while practical AI applications create smarter workflows, enhance safety and foster continuous learning and innovation.

Parting words: “The momentum, the environment, the atmosphere surrounding what we do will continue to evolve, and we know that we can solve our problems if the industry is tackling them together,” said MI President and Executive Director Carolyn Lee. “The MI will continue to be here to support you.”

Couldn’t make it this time? The MI, the NAM’s 501(c)3 workforce development and education affiliate, works year-round to help companies strengthen their workforce and deliver innovative solutions to workforce challenges. Here are some ways to get involved:

• Sign up for updates to the MI’s Solutions Center for resources, best practices and opportunities to learn from peers through the Solutions Series. Explore our regularly scheduled virtual convenings as part of the Solutions Series to see how manufacturers across the country are addressing workforce challenges.
• Get updates directly from the MI on the latest workforce insights and be among the first to receive information about upcoming events and to register for next year’s Workforce Summit, taking place in Indianapolis, Indiana.
• Want more labor data and insights? Sign up for the MI’s comprehensive Workforce in Focus newsletter to stay up to date on the latest workforce trends.

Existing home sales increased 1.5% in September and 4.1% over the year. Housing inventory stepped up to 1.55 million units, reflecting a 1.3% rise from August and 14.0% jump from last year. The median existing home price was $415,200, up 2.1% from last year. The Northeast, South and West posted monthly increases in existing home sales, while the Midwest registered a decline in September.

Single-family home sales rose 1.7% from August and 4.5% from September 2024, with the median price increasing 2.3% from last year to $420,700. Condo and co-op sales stayed the same over the month and over the year at 370,000 units in September. Meanwhile, the median price for condos and co-ops edged down 0.6% from the prior year to $360,300.

Homes were typically on the market for 33 days in September, up from 31 days in August and 28 days in September 2024. First-time buyers made up 30% of sales in September, up from 28% in July and 26% in September 2024.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.0 to 52.2 in October, a two-month high. This continues the trend in business conditions with nine of the past 10 months signaling growth. Factory production grew for the fifth consecutive month, while new orders increased at the steepest pace in one-and-a-half years, driven by the domestic market. On the other hand, export orders for manufactured goods fell at the fastest rate since February, with sales to China and Europe falling.

Inventories continued to grow, but only marginally, as declining backlogs caused manufacturers to reduce input buying in October. Meanwhile, supplier delivery times shortened compared to September. Manufacturers’ input cost inflation increased at the slowest pace since February but remained incredibly high and continued to be attributed to tariffs. Selling prices for goods accelerated in October but stayed below rates seen in the preceding six months. Firms continued to report difficulties passing higher costs on to customers due to suppressed demand and increased competition.

Overall business activity advanced to a three-month high, increasing from 53.9 in September to 54.8 in October. This reading is accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen in 2025, with both the service sector and manufacturing experiencing growth in business activity in October. Overall, new order growth rose at the steepest level so far this year despite service exports falling. Despite price increases in manufacturing, service sector inflation eased in October.

Meanwhile, optimism about future business conditions fell in October, amid continued uncertainty around trade policy and the ongoing federal government shutdown. Manufacturing optimism declined to the second lowest level since June 2024 despite continued hope that tariffs could stimulate domestic production in the coming year.