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Washington, D.C. – Failing to preserve pro-manufacturing tax policies from the 2017 tax reform will cost the U.S. economy nearly 6 million jobs, according to a landmark EY study released by the National Association of Manufacturers. Inaction would cost the U.S. economy more than $1 trillion. The study also shows that the manufacturing industry will bear the brunt of this economic damage if Congress does not act swiftly in 2025.

“The time to act is now. Millions of American workers are depending on the manufacturing sector to continue driving America forward,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “Pro-growth tax policies from President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms were rocket fuel for manufacturers and made the U.S. economy more competitive on a global scale. Manufacturers kept our promises to create jobs, raise wages and benefits and invest in our community. By acting now, policymakers can choose economic growth over economic disaster and protect American livelihoods.

“This data—6 million American jobs at stake—makes crystal clear that preserving tax reform should be one of the first acts of the new Congress and the new administration. If Congress delays, manufacturers will be forced to delay investment and job creation decisions due to the uncertain outlook. In 2017, Congress passed the landmark Tax Cuts and Jobs Act late in the year, meaning that manufacturers’ investment decisions based on the law could not bear fruit until 2018 at the earliest. For example, manufacturing capital spending grew 4.5% and 5.7% in 2018 and 2019, respectively, compared to the meager 1.4% growth in 2017. In addition, manufacturers added 267,000 new jobs in 2018, the best year for job creation in manufacturing in 21 years.

“This time around, we can’t afford to wait: with crucial TCJA provisions having expired in recent years, the economy is already backsliding. Following the expiration of immediate R&D expensing in 2022, R&D growth in the EU surpassed the U.S. for the first time in nearly a decade—and China’s R&D growth tripled our own. Congress and President Trump should work expeditiously to stimulate activity this year by acting urgently to give manufacturers the tax certainty they need to plan for long-term, job-creating projects.”

“As the backbone of the American economy, manufacturers—both large and small—drive innovation, create opportunity and strengthen communities across the country,” said Johnson & Johnson Executive Vice President, Chief Technical Operations & Risk Officer and NAM Board Chair Kathy Wengel. “Maintaining competitive tax policy is essential to sustaining this momentum, enabling manufacturers to invest in cutting-edge technologies, expand operations and provide good-paying jobs. By preserving tax reform and its pro-growth policies that empower our industry, we can ensure a stronger, more resilient economy that benefits all Americans.”

“Failing to extend the Trump tax cuts could result in an estimated 6 million lost jobs and the devastation of America’s manufacturing sector,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). “It is the responsibility of Congress to act quickly so we can protect Americans’ livelihoods, prevent wage decreases and avoid the largest tax hike in history. We all know the importance of making things here in America, so House Republicans are working hard to preserve and build on President Trump’s historic tax reform and support America’s manufacturers.”

“This study confirms the need to immediately extend the Trump Tax cuts this year by showing the real-world devastation to America’s small businesses and manufacturers if we fail to act,” said House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO). “With nearly 6 million jobs on the line, Congress must act swiftly to give American small businesses, families and communities across the country the green light to hire more workers and expand their businesses to restore the greatest economy in our lifetime as soon as possible. The last thing they need is the largest tax increase in American history. Ways and Means Republicans have prepared for this moment for nearly two years and are ready to deliver an economic package that Makes American Manufacturing great again.”

“Trump’s tax reform allowed Americans to keep more of their hard-earned money, and enabled businesses to invest in their ideas, products and people,” said Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID). “Making these tax cuts permanent is the best way to ensure the greatest economic growth, provide certainty and stability for American businesses, and avoid the economic losses described in this study.”

“President Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act not only strengthened American manufacturing, but promoted job growth, drove innovation, increased hardworking Americans’ take home pay, and increased U.S. competitiveness. With President Trump returning to the White House and Republican majorities in the House and Senate, we must act quickly to ensure we maintain global competitiveness, support investment and innovation, and safeguard small businesses and workers,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA). “Hardworking Americans deserve a strong economy that works for them, not against them. House Republicans stand ready to prevent the largest tax hike in history and make our economy great again.”

“Small manufacturers are disproportionately impacted by tax increases,” said Ketchie President and Owner Courtney Silver, outgoing chair of the NAM’s Small and Medium Manufacturers Group. “We’re already struggling thanks to the expiration of immediate R&D expensing, full expensing for capital equipment purchases and interest deductibility for job-creating projects. Congress should reverse these expirations and prevent even more devastating changes to the pass-through deduction, the estate tax and more from taking effect next year.” Silver recently testified before Congress to talk about the impact of tax reform to small manufacturers across the country.

Key Study Results:

Nationwide economic damage:

• 5.9 million lost jobs
• $540 billion reduction in employee compensation
• $1.1 trillion shortfall in U.S. GDP

Manufacturing impact:

• 1.137 million manufacturing jobs
• $126 billion in manufacturing worker compensation
• $284 billion manufacturing GDP reduction

To view the study, including state and district impacts, click here.

Background:

Manufacturers need Congress to prevent harmful tax increases, according to the NAM’s Q3 2024 Outlook Survey. Nearly 9 out of 10 respondents agree that Congress should act before the end of 2025 to prevent scheduled tax increases on manufacturers. The 20% pass-through deduction, individual tax rates and the estate tax exemption threshold are scheduled to expire or become less competitive at the end of 2025, as are important aspects of tax reform’s international tax system. These tax increases will build on damaging tax changes impacting R&D, capital investments and business loans that took effect in 2022 and 2023.

In 2018, the first year after tax reform’s enactment, manufacturing experienced the best year for job creation in 21 years and the best year for wage growth in 15 years; similarly, manufacturing capital spending grew 4.5% and 5.7% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Manufacturers have used the savings from tax reform to grow their businesses, create jobs, raise wages, add new benefits for employees, fund R&D, purchase new equipment, expand their facilities and invest in their communities. When manufacturing grows, the economy grows. Correspondingly, when manufacturers experience devasting tax increases, the economy suffers.

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The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.91 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

Allowing crucial pro-manufacturing tax provisions to expire will be devastating for the U.S. economy, according to a landmark EY study released today by the NAM.
 
What’s going on: “Pro-growth tax policies from President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms were rocket fuel for manufacturers and made the U.S. economy more competitive on a global scale,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said.

But in 2022, key provisions began to expire—and additional tax reform measures are scheduled to sunset at the end of this year. If Congress doesn’t preserve these pro-growth policies, the U.S. economy will face dire consequences:

• Nearly 6 million jobs will be put at risk.
• Approximately $540 billion in employee compensation will be lost.
• U.S. GDP will be reduced by $1.1 trillion.

Manufacturing impact: The manufacturing industry will bear the brunt of this economic damage, according to the study.

• More than 1.1 million manufacturing jobs and $126 billion in manufacturing worker wages are on the line if Congress does not preserve critical pro-manufacturing policies from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.  

The onus is on Congress: “It is the responsibility of Congress to act quickly so we can protect Americans’ livelihoods, prevent wage decreases and avoid the largest tax hike in history,” said House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).
 
Critical players: The U.S. economy relies heavily on manufacturers, which in turn rely on competitive tax policy—and that makes these provisions’ renewal crucial, said Johnson & Johnson Executive Vice President and Chief Technical Operations & Risk Officer and NAM Board Chair Kathy Wengel.

• “[M]anufacturers—both large and small—drive innovation, create opportunity and strengthen communities across the country. … Maintaining competitive tax policy is essential to sustaining this momentum.”   

What we’re doing: The NAM continues its advocacy blitz following the study’s release.

• This morning, Courtney Silver, president and owner of North Carolina–based precision machining company Ketchie and immediate past chair of the NAM’s Small and Medium Manufacturers Group, is testifying at a House Ways and Means Committee hearing on the need to make pro-manufacturing TCJA reforms permanent.
• At 4:30 p.m. EST today, the NAM will hold a press conference on Capitol Hill announcing the study’s launch. Speakers will include Timmons, Speaker Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID). Watch live here.

New orders for manufactured goods fell 0.4% in November, after falling for three of the past four months. When excluding transportation, new orders edged up 0.2%. Orders for durable goods dropped -1.2% after rising 0.7% in October. Year to date, durable goods orders are down 1.3%. Nondurable goods ticked up 0.4% in November after increasing 0.2% in October. Nondurable goods orders are up 1.4% year to date.

New orders for photographic equipment experienced the greatest increase of any industry at 19.0%, while ship and boat transportation had the largest over-the-month decrease of 13.6%. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts (down 34.3%) and computers (up 19.7%).

Factory shipments increased 0.1% in November, after falling 0.2% in October. Shipments excluding transportation edged up 0.4%, above the 0.2% increase the previous month. Shipments for durable goods declined 0.2% in November, falling for the three previous months, but are up 1.6% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments inched up 0.4% in November and are up 1.4% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing and durable goods industries rose 0.3% in November, following a 0.5% increase in October. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods increased to 7.07 from 7.04 in October. Inventories rose 0.3%, while the inventories-to-shipments ratio edged up to 1.47 from 1.46 in October.

In November, job openings for manufacturing dropped by 56,000 to 412,000, with the decrease entirely concentrated in durable goods. The manufacturing job openings rate fell 0.4% to 3.1% in November and declined from 4.1% the previous year. The rate for durable goods manufacturing decreased from 3.8% to 3.1%, while it stayed the same at 3.0% for nondurable goods.

In the larger economy, the number of job openings rose to 8.1 million, an increase of 259,000 from the previous month but a decrease of 833,000 from the previous year. The job openings rate increased to 4.8%, up from 4.7% in October, but declined from 5.4% last year. While this data reflects an overall labor market that remains solid despite cooling over the past year, it also exhibits continued weakness for the manufacturing industry.

The number of hires in the overall economy fell to 5.3 million from 5.4 million in October and dropped 300,000 from the previous year. The hires rate decreased 0.1% to 3.3%. Meanwhile, the hires rate for manufacturing declined 0.3% to 2.2%. The hires rate for durable goods fell to 1.8%, while it fell to 2.9% for nondurable goods.

Total separations, which includes quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, fell 180,000 from October to 5.1 million and dropped 287,000 from the previous year. The total separations rate slipped 0.1% to 3.2% and declined to 2.4% from 2.7% for manufacturing. Within that rate, layoffs and discharges edged down by 2,000 in November for manufacturing, while quits decreased by 24,000. The quit and layoff rates continue to remain lower for manufacturing than the total nonfarm sector.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, blowing past the expectation of 155,000. October’s job gain was revised upward by 7,000 jobs to 43,000, while November’s job gain was revised downward by 15,000 to 212,000. The 12-month average stands at 186,000 job gains per month. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.1%, while the labor force participation rate stayed the same at 62.5%.

Manufacturing employment fell by 13,000, after the November gain of 25,000 jobs didn’t fully recoup the 52,000 jobs lost in October. For a second consecutive month, the most significant losses in manufacturing in December occurred in computer and electronic products, which shed 6,200 jobs over the month.

The employment-population ratio rose 0.2% to 60.0% but is down a slight 0.1 percentage point from a year ago. Employed persons who are part-time workers for economic reasons decreased by 111,000 to 4.36 million but are up from 4.22 million in December 2023. Native-born employment is down 68,000 over the month and 198,000 over the year. Meanwhile, foreign-born employment is also down over the month but up 342,000 over the year.

Average hourly earnings for all private nonfarm payroll employees rose 0.3%, or 10 cents, reaching $35.69. Over the past year, earnings have grown 3.9%. The average workweek for all employees stayed the same at 34.3 hours in December.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Manufacturers announced new 2025 leadership for its Council of Manufacturing Associations at the CMA 2025 Winter Leadership Conference. Alison Bodor, president and CEO of the American Frozen Food Institute, will serve as chair, and Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute, will serve as vice chair.

“The CMA’s work demonstrates how manufacturing associations are stronger together. I am proud to have the opportunity to serve as chair, and I look forward to working with my peer association CEOs and our respective organizations from across the nation to advance a competitiveness agenda that strengthens America’s manufacturing community,” said Bodor.

Made up of more than 200 industry-specific manufacturing associations representing 130,000 companies worldwide, the CMA creates powerful partnerships across the industry, working with the NAM to unite the manufacturing association community, and ultimately the broader business community, around strategies for increased manufacturing job creation, investment and innovation in America.

“Alison and Corey have been essential to the CMA’s mission of creating a united association community and amplifying the voices of manufacturers across the country,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “After years of pushing back against a federal regulatory onslaught, their leadership will be vital as we work with a new Congress and administration to enact pro-growth tax and regulatory reforms that will allow manufacturers in America to thrive.”

Prior to leading the American Frozen Food Institute, Bodor served as executive vice president of the National Confectioners Association. She previously served as CMA vice chair.

Newly appointed 2025 CMA board members include the following:

• Bill Allmond, president, Adhesive and Sealant Council
• Ned Monroe, president and CEO, Vinyl Institute
• Debra Phillips, president and CEO, National Electrical Manufacturers Association
• Cindy Squires, president and CEO, American Composite Manufacturers Association

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The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.91 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

The outgoing Biden administration is undermining a U.S. manufacturer in its high-stakes dispute with the Mexican government by “seeking to erode investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) protections under U.S. trade agreements with Colombia, Mexico and Canada,” a recent Wall Street Journal (subscription) editorial revealed.

The problem: ISDS protections safeguard U.S. investments from foreign governments seeking to interfere with or appropriate them, as the predicament of Vulcan Materials Company shows.

• Vulcan has been embroiled in a dispute with the Mexican government since 2018, when the government shut down some of its quarrying operations, according to Chairman and CEO J. Thomas Hill.
• The unwarranted shutdown forced the company to pursue arbitration under NAFTA, but the situation only got worse—former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador ordered all of Vulcan’s operations to cease in May 2022, including at a deepwater port the company built in the early 1990s.
• Now, the company is expecting its second round of arbitration to be decided by mid-2025—unless the Biden administration guts the investor protections in the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, handing a victory (and a key port) to the Mexican government.

Congressional fury: Both Congress and Vulcan itself learned of the administration’s efforts via The Wall Street Journal editorial, instead of directly from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. This is particularly egregious because the USTR is required to consult with Congress on investment obligations in trade deals.

• Bipartisan members of Congress have expressed their outrage, with Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL) writing in The Wall Street Journal (subscription) that “the Biden administration is negotiating away the due process of Americans, including my constituents, in the waning days of this lame-duck administration.”
• On Dec. 20, three bipartisan senators joined Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) in condemning the USTR’s efforts on the Senate floor. “If Mexico is allowed to target, without repercussion, a company like Vulcan, one that employs thousands of Americans, and has operated responsibly in Mexico for decades, that means no American business is safe in Mexico,” Sen. Hagerty said.
• Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) joined both Sens. Britt and Hagerty in calling on Congress to pass the Defending American Property Abroad Act, which would impose penalties on Western Hemisphere countries that unlawfully seize the assets of American firms.

The NAM says: The NAM is calling on the USTR to halt this effort immediately, said NAM Vice President of International Policy Andrea Durkin.

• “ISDS has a legitimate role in U.S. trade policy to ensure our manufacturers receive fair and equitable treatment by foreign governments and to protect against egregious expropriation or nationalization of U.S. investments without adequate and effective compensation.”
• “U.S. manufacturers are entitled—at a minimum—to be consulted about any proposed changes that would impact their right to due process in ongoing cases.”

The Biden administration’s ban on new offshore oil and gas drilling in most American coastal waters “sets a bad precedent for the country,” the NAM said Monday.

What’s going on: The decision, which comes just two weeks before President Trump takes office, applies to “new drilling off the entire East Coast, as well as California, Oregon and Washington state” and “some drilling off Alaska’s coast in portions of the Northern Bering Sea and in the eastern Gulf of Mexico” (The Hill).

• Though there is currently no active drilling in the Atlantic and most U.S. offshore oil and gas production comes from the central and western Gulf of Mexico, the area placed under the ban is the largest ever “formally taken off the table for drilling by a president.”
• In response, President Trump on Monday said he would “unban it immediately” (Associated Press).

Why it’s a problem: The moratorium could prove harder for Trump to undo than other 11th-hour moves by Biden. That’s in large part because of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act, which gives U.S. presidents the right to block drilling in certain areas but not the right to reinstate it.

• However, Congress could work with the new president to undo the move—and it should, Timmons said. “Manufacturers are committed to working with Congress and [President Trump] to scale back this harmful decision that undermines American energy dominance.”

Several last-minute regulatory actions by the outgoing Biden Treasury Department are “clear example[s] of regulatory overreach” that should be withdrawn immediately, the NAM told the Biden administration recently.

What’s going on: The Treasury Department has proposed new guidance and regulations that, if finalized, would change the IRS’s treatment of related-party transactions, particularly as they relate to partnerships.

• The proposed standards would impose significant reporting obligations on manufacturers while also drastically changing the tax treatment of these commonplace payments.
• Additionally, Treasury has proposed new rules governing “dual consolidated losses” that would make it more difficult for manufacturers operating in multiple jurisdictions around the world to utilize their tax losses appropriately.

Why it’s problematic: The proposed standards are outside Treasury’s statutory authority and are “unlikely to withstand inevitable judicial scrutiny,” the NAM told the agency at the end of 2024.

• In December, the NAM laid out the legal issues endemic to Treasury’s proposals, identifying both substantive and process-related issues that undermine each action.
• The submission builds on manufacturers’ comments to the agency on the proposals themselves: The NAM said in July that the related-party guidance was “wholly unauthorized, unsupported and unsupportable” and in August told the agency that the related-party rules “would impose an undue burden on taxpayers that outweighs any potential compliance benefit.”
• It added in October that the dual consolidated loss proposal was “internally inconsistent” and “fail[ed] to reflect reasoned decision-making.”

Regulatory onslaught: The NAM has been at the forefront of pushing back on the Biden administration’s regulatory onslaught, which costs manufacturers upward of $350 billion every year.

• Shortly after the 2024 presidential election, the NAM led a group of more than 100 manufacturing associations in urging the incoming Trump administration to “address burdensome regulations that are stifling investment, making us less competitive in the world, limiting innovation and threatening the very jobs we are all working to create right here in America.”

What’s next: The NAM is calling on the Biden Treasury Department not to finalize these proposals in the administration’s final days, but rather to pause or withdraw the rules in question until the Trump administration takes office.
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Washington, D.C. – Following the publication of new final guidance by the U.S. Department of Treasury for the hydrogen production tax credit, National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement:

“America leads when we unleash all our energy potential, including hydrogen, American natural gas, nuclear and more. With a strong build-out of hydrogen production facilities, we will be able to add more sources of reliable energy for manufacturers, power plants and communities while cementing our energy dominance.

“The NAM has advocated consistently for flexibility in the credit using project-specific emissions data rather than national or regional averages. The Biden administration’s guidance provides manufacturers with an important step forward. But for hydrogen to truly become a game-changing energy source, we need to address restrictions that make it harder to cost-compete on a global scale. A robust and flexible hydrogen industry will also be a major boon to the production and utilization of American natural gas as well as American nuclear power.

“Under President Donald Trump’s leadership, we have an opportunity to cut taxes, slash red tape and unleash permitting reform—turning this credit into a powerful tool for American energy leadership and fuel security. It’s time to build on this momentum and ensure these incentives deliver on their full promise for America’s manufacturers, workers and economy.”

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The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.91 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.