News & Insights

Existing home sales increased 1.5% in September and 4.1% over the year. Housing inventory stepped up to 1.55 million units, reflecting a 1.3% rise from August and 14.0% jump from last year. The median existing home price was $415,200, up 2.1% from last year. The Northeast, South and West posted monthly increases in existing home sales, while the Midwest registered a decline in September.

Single-family home sales rose 1.7% from August and 4.5% from September 2024, with the median price increasing 2.3% from last year to $420,700. Condo and co-op sales stayed the same over the month and over the year at 370,000 units in September. Meanwhile, the median price for condos and co-ops edged down 0.6% from the prior year to $360,300.

Homes were typically on the market for 33 days in September, up from 31 days in August and 28 days in September 2024. First-time buyers made up 30% of sales in September, up from 28% in July and 26% in September 2024.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose from 52.0 to 52.2 in October, a two-month high. This continues the trend in business conditions with nine of the past 10 months signaling growth. Factory production grew for the fifth consecutive month, while new orders increased at the steepest pace in one-and-a-half years, driven by the domestic market. On the other hand, export orders for manufactured goods fell at the fastest rate since February, with sales to China and Europe falling.

Inventories continued to grow, but only marginally, as declining backlogs caused manufacturers to reduce input buying in October. Meanwhile, supplier delivery times shortened compared to September. Manufacturers’ input cost inflation increased at the slowest pace since February but remained incredibly high and continued to be attributed to tariffs. Selling prices for goods accelerated in October but stayed below rates seen in the preceding six months. Firms continued to report difficulties passing higher costs on to customers due to suppressed demand and increased competition.

Overall business activity advanced to a three-month high, increasing from 53.9 in September to 54.8 in October. This reading is accompanied by the largest rise in new business seen in 2025, with both the service sector and manufacturing experiencing growth in business activity in October. Overall, new order growth rose at the steepest level so far this year despite service exports falling. Despite price increases in manufacturing, service sector inflation eased in October.

Meanwhile, optimism about future business conditions fell in October, amid continued uncertainty around trade policy and the ongoing federal government shutdown. Manufacturing optimism declined to the second lowest level since June 2024 despite continued hope that tariffs could stimulate domestic production in the coming year.

Manufacturing activity increased in the Tenth District in October, with the month-over-month composite index rising 2 points to 6 from September. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity jumped 7 points to 14. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month rise in activity was due to increases in both durable and nondurable manufacturing. New order growth slowed, while production jumped. Shipments rose, while new orders for exports decreased, but at a slower pace than the prior month.

The production index rose from 4 to 15, while the new orders index decreased from 2 to 1, but remained positive. The new orders for exports index remained negative but stepped up from -9 to -4 over the month. The employment index fell in October but remained positive, dropping from 7 to 1, while the average employee workweek index declined from 3 to -3. The backlog of orders improved from -13 to 1. Both the pace of growth for prices received and paid grew month-over-month, with raw material prices ticking up from 40 to 41 and prices received increasing 6 points to 19. On the other hand, over the year, both prices received and paid rose at a slower pace, decreasing 3 points each to 52 and 71, respectively.

In October, survey respondents were asked about changes in profit margins and artificial intelligence usage. Approximately 55% of firms reported a decrease in profit margin this year, while 17% cited no change and 28% noted increases. In 2026, 38% of firms expect a decrease in profit margins, 22% anticipate no change and 40% predict an increase. Additionally, 67% of firms reported that AI has not affected their business plans. Meanwhile, 12% of firms expanded their use of AI this year, 13% started using AI and 8% have not incorporated AI but plan to in the future.

In September, consumer prices increased 0.3% over the month and 3.0% over the year, up from the 2.9% annual rise in August but lower than the 3.1% advance anticipated. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the year, slightly lower than the 3.1% 12-month increase in the month prior.

Energy costs advanced 1.5% over the month in September, after ticking up 0.7% in August, and grew 2.8% over the year. Within the energy index, gasoline prices jumped 4.1% from August, the largest factor in the monthly headline increase, but declined 0.5% from September 2024. Meanwhile, utility (piped) gas prices dropped 1.2% over the month, but surged 11.7% over the year.

In September, food prices edged up 0.2% over the month, after increasing 0.5% in August, with prices for food away from home rising 0.1%. Over the year, food prices advanced 3.1%, with food away from home jumping 3.7%. Meanwhile, prices for food at home climbed 0.3% from August and 2.7% from September 2024. Four of the six indexes for major grocery store food groups increased in September.

The shelter index grew 0.2% over the month and 3.6% over the year, continuing its downward 12-month trend since peaking at an 8.2% annual gain in March 2023. Meanwhile, prices for used cars and trucks decreased 0.4% over the month but soared 5.1% over the year. Relatedly, motor vehicle maintenance and repair rose 0.2% from August and 7.7% from September 2024.

The headline inflation rate has ticked up in recent months amid an increase in core goods prices, but likely not enough to deter Federal Reserve officials from cutting their interest rate target this week, particularly since inflation rose by less than anticipated in September. Therefore, markets anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its interest rate target by another 25 basis points at its meeting this week.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 2 points to 98.8 in September, remaining slightly above the 52-year average of 98. September’s decrease was due primarily to a decline in the share of small business owners expecting better business conditions and an increase in reports of excess inventory. Of the 10 components included in the index, two increased, five decreased and three stayed the same. Meanwhile, the Uncertainty Index rose 7 points to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years and well above the 51-year average (68) and the average since 2016 (80).

Labor quality and taxes tied as the top concern for small business owners, with 18% reporting each as the most important problem. Business owners continue to struggle to fill positions despite openings trending down, with 32% of small business owners reporting jobs they could not fill in September, unchanged from August. The share of small business owners in September reporting taxes as a top problem increased 1% from August, with some noting high property taxes in particular. Meanwhile, inflation ranked third in the list of concerns, with 14% reporting it as a top problem, up 3 points from August. Looking forward, a net 31% plan to increase prices in anticipation of rising tariff costs, up 5 points from August.

A net 31% of small business owners reported raising compensation, up 2 points in September after increasing 2 points in August. Meanwhile, 19% of business owners plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down 1 point from August. Pressure on profitability continued to ease, improving 3 points from August to a net negative 16%. Among owners reporting lower profits, 33% blamed weaker sales, 17% cited increased material costs, 10% noted price changes for their product(s) or services(s) and 9% said labor costs. Meanwhile, 7% reported their last loan was harder to get than previous attempts, up 4 points from August, and a net 7% of owners cited paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, up 1 point from the prior month.

The outlook for general business conditions fell 11 points to 23%, still a positive read by historical standards. Additionally, 11% reported that it is a good time to expand their business, down 3 points from August, a rather weak read compared to times of economic expansion. Overall, small business owners remain relatively optimistic, but uncertainty remains very high.

Manufacturing activity in New York state increased in October, with the headline general business conditions index rising 19.4 points to 10.7. The new orders index jumped 23.3 points to 3.7, while the shipments index surged 31.7 points to 14.4. Unfilled orders stepped up from -6.9 to -3.9, while inventories advanced 3.9 points to -1.0, indicating that business inventories continue to shrink but at a slower pace. Delivery times improved, but supply availability decreased 1.9 points to -10.7.

Employment increased in October, with the index for the number of employees rising 7.4 points to 6.2. Meanwhile, the average employee workweek moved up slightly to -4.1 from -5.1 in September, signaling a modest drop in hours worked. The prices paid index rose 6.3 points to 52.4 while the prices received index moved up 5.6 points to 27.2, a reflection of a faster pace of increase for prices received and prices paid.

In October, firms’ optimism regarding the future rose to its highest level since January. The future business activity index climbed 15.5 points to 30.3. In the next six months, new orders are still expected to increase, and at an accelerated pace compared to last month at 34.9. The future employment index stepped up to 7.5, suggesting an anticipated faster pace of employment growth over the next six months. On the other hand, input prices are expected to rise at a faster pace, increasing from 57.8 to 65.0, while selling price expectations are forecasted to stay relatively consistent, inching up 0.6 points to 43.7. Meanwhile, capital spending plans improved but remained weak, moving up from -3.9 to -2.9.

In October, Philadelphia’s regional manufacturing activity declined following growth in September. Falling from 23.2 to -12.8, the index for current general business activity recorded its largest decline since April. This month, 25.2% of firms reported decreases in activity, while just 12.4% of firms noted increases. The index for new orders improved, rising from 12.4 to 18.2, while the index for shipments fell from 26.1 to 6.0. Meanwhile, the employment index ticked down 1 point to 4.6 as the average employee workweek decreased 2.1 points to 12.8.

The indexes for prices paid and prices received both increased, rising from 46.8 to 49.2 and from 18.8 to 26.8, respectively, suggesting prices rose at a faster pace in October. As has been the case for many months, the prices received index remained lower than the prices paid index, indicating that manufacturers have been absorbing a portion of higher costs paid.

Looking ahead, indicators showing expectations for future growth have continued to improve from previous months. After moving up 6.5 points in September, expectations for future business activity rose 4.7 to 36.2 in October. The growth came from a drop in the proportion of firms expecting a decrease in activity (11.2%). On the other hand, a smaller share of firms (47.4%) also expect increases in activity compared to last month’s reading of 52.2%. The future new orders index stepped up from 42.4 to 49.8, and the future shipments index jumped from 31.0 to 48.4. The capital expenditures index rose from 12.5 to 25.2. When asked about 2026, 35.5% of firms expect higher capital expenditures, a notable boost, but that increase was concentrated in noncomputer equipment expenditures. The future prices paid and prices received indexes dropped from 69.8 to 59.8 and from 64.8 to 45.7, respectively. Additionally, the index for future employment stepped down from 23.7 to 21.4.

WASHINGTON, D.C.—Today, National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement celebrating plans to reopen the former Mead paper mill in Chillicothe, Ohio, under new ownership by U.S. Medical Glove Company.

“Never bet against the people of Chillicothe and Ross County. And never bet against the vibrancy of manufacturing in the United States.

“As a proud son of Chillicothe, Ohio, and the proud grandson of someone who supported and sustained his family through a manufacturing career that spanned four decades on the shop floor of the paper mill, I am thrilled to see that Mead has found new life.

“But I am not surprised.

“Manufacturing in the United States is anchored in the qualities that make this country exceptional. Those qualities that define us—those qualities that define our industry—include the values of innovation, resilience and reinvention. This is the story not only of Chillicothe’s comeback but the ever-larger leadership of our nation’s indispensable sector: U.S. manufacturing.

“And the success of our industry depends on leaders who invest in the workers, the facilities, the communities and the policy that our sector needs to propel our nation as the best place on Earth to build, grow, invest and hire. Because when we invest in manufacturing, we not only strengthen the hand of the United States on the world stage. We invest in the American people.

“Manufacturing opens doors—to strong, secure and prosperous families, to greater investments in our parks, roads, bridges and schools, and to the optimism at the heart of the dignity of work. And under the ownership of U.S. Medical Glove Company, those doors in Chillicothe swing wide open again.

“I congratulate the great people of Chillicothe and Ross County—and give my thanks to all of the leaders who made this possible, including Ross County Commissioners, Chillicothe Mayor Luke Feeney, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, Attorney General Dave Yost, Sens. Bernie Moreno and Jon Husted, as well as Congressman Dave Taylor.

“To Sen. Moreno—who wrote letters, held rallies and shaped negotiations to find a new owner to keep the mill open—you in particular have reminded us that our nation’s prosperity does not guarantee itself. Leaders do. And you have led, like all of the manufacturing champions in our nation have led, to make sure that manufacturing in this country, in Chillicothe and so many communities like it, beats on as a powerhouse of prosperity.”

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.90 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

The NAM’s mission of supporting the people who make things in America would not be possible without the organization’s board of directors.

Say hello: The NAM is pleased to announce its newest board members—committed and exemplary professionals dedicated to the success of manufacturing in the United States. The newest members will begin their two-year terms in January 2026. The additions, who come from across industries and leadership roles in manufacturing, include the following:

• Orlando Alvarez, chairman and president, bp America; senior vice president, Gas & Power Trading Americas; president and CEO, bp Energy Company
• Neil Barua, president and CEO, PTC Inc.
• Bruce Bodine, CEO, The Mosaic Company
• Rogerio Branco, executive vice president, chief supply chain officer, Eaton
• Rodney Bull, CEO, Komatsu America Corp.
• Eleanor Cabreré, senior vice president, general counsel and corporate secretary, International Motors, LLC
• Josh Chou, chief global supply chain officer, McCormick & Company, Inc.
• Keira Driansky, executive vice president, president North America, Ipsen Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.
• Henrietta Fuchs, partner, Manufacturing & Distribution Practice, CohnReznick LLP
• Alex Housten, chief operating officer, Rheem Manufacturing Company
• Frederick Humphries Jr., corporate vice president, U.S. Government Affairs, Microsoft Corporation
• Christina Keller, CEO and chair, Cascade Engineering, Inc.
• Erik Lampe, president and CEO, The Vollrath Company
• Rebecca Liebert, president and CEO, The Lubrizol Corporation
• Laura Matz, chief science and technology officer, Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany
• Timothy Mulhere, CEO, Fortrex Solutions
• Sam Paul, senior managing director, Accenture
• Thomas Peddicord, managing director and senior partner, North America Industrial Goods Practice, Boston Consulting Group
• Heather Remley, president and CEO, BASF Corporation
• Toby Rice, president and CEO, EQT Corporation
• Ronald Richardson, chief revenue officer, FourKites, Inc.
• Scott Richardson, president and CEO, Celanese Corporation
• Brandon Spencer, president, Motion Business Area, ABB Group
• Dave Valkanoff, executive vice president, chief operating officer, Benchmark Electronics, Inc.
• Tom Williams, executive vice president and chief marketing officer, BNSF Railway Company
• Bryan Wright, partner, manufacturing national sector leader, Forvis Mazars, LLP

The NAM’s take: “The next few years will shape the manufacturing industry’s trajectory for decades. At a pivotal moment, the NAM will be stronger thanks to the service of our new board members,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons.

“They will help lead the charge as we drive a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that empowers every manufacturer across the United States to build, invest, grow, thrive and lead. On behalf of the entire NAM team, I am grateful for their partnership as we advance the values that have made America exceptional and our industry strong—free enterprise, competitiveness, individual liberty and equal opportunity.”

In July, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.7% annual gain, one of the weakest annual price increases in the past decade. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 2.3% in July, down from 2.7% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 1.8% year-over-year, down from 2.2%. Among the 20 cities, New York again posted the highest annual gain at 6.4%, followed by Chicago at 6.2% and Cleveland at 4.5%. Tampa again recorded the lowest annual return, with prices falling 2.8%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index ticked down 0.2% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City and 20-City Composites both decreased 0.3%. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index and the 10-City and 20-City Composites all fell 0.1%.

Short-term price movements in July underscore the housing market’s fragility. Geographic divergence continues to characterize changes as Northeastern and Midwestern markets, after seeing modest price growth, are now top performers. Sun Belt and Western markets are now faring worse, including Tampa (down 2.8%), Phoenix (down 0.9%), Miami (down 1.3%), San Diego (down 0.7%) and San Francisco (down 1.9%).

This housing cycle is showing signs of normalization with the ongoing rotation in regional performance. Stability is emerging as markets with strong local economies are thriving in a market more aligned with overall inflation. Furthermore, this new equilibrium points to a healthier trajectory for housing in the long run.