News & Insights

Existing home sales increased 2.2% in December and jumped 9.3% from December 2023, the largest annual gain since June 2021. Housing inventory declined to 1.15 million units, reflecting a 13.5% decrease from November but up 16.2% from last year. The median existing home price was $404,400, up 6.0% from last year, with all four U.S. regions reporting price increases.

Single-family home sales rose 1.9% in December, with the median price increasing 6.1% from December 2023 to $409,300. Condo and co-op sales grew 5.1% in December and 2.5% from the previous year, with the median price up 4.5% from the prior year to $359,000.

Homes were typically on the market for 35 days in December, up from 32 days in November and 29 days in December 2023. First-time buyers made up 31% of sales in December, up slightly from 30% in November and 29% in the same month last year. All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions in December, up from 25% in November but down from 29% in December 2023. Meanwhile, investors or second-home buyers represented 16% of homes purchased in December, up from 13% in November and the same as December 2023. Distressed sales, including foreclosures and short sales, represented 2% of purchases in December, unchanged from the past two months and from the previous year.

The S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 49.4 in December to 50.1 in January, signaling nominal growth in manufacturing after six months of contraction. Both factory production and new orders increased for the first time in six months. Employment also rose for the third month in a row, and the rate of job creation is the highest since July. Supplier delivery times lengthened, indicating busier supply chains, but this was offset by the greatest drop in inventories in 17 months.

The improvement in sentiment was notable in the manufacturing sector, soaring to the highest reading since May 2022, adding to suggestions that activity may improve further in the coming months. Respondents cited a more business-friendly new administration in terms of looser regulation and lower taxes as beneficial to the outlook. On the other hand, others cited concern over tariffs, a strong dollar and higher prices.

Manufacturing activity contracted modestly in the Tenth District in January, while expectations for future activity remained positive but slipped from 17 to 15 from December. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month decrease in activity was due to modest declines in both durable and nondurable manufacturing. Most month-over-month indexes were negative, apart from employment, prices and finished goods inventories.

Production fell three points to -9, while new orders improved from -16 to -6. Employment remained roughly the same in January. The backlog of orders remained negative but ticked up to -19 from -22. The year-over-year composite index for factory activity increased from -16 to -9 but stayed negative. Like in December, capital expenditures, prices received and prices for raw materials all increased year-over-year in January while other indexes declined.

This month, survey respondents were asked about their firms’ exports and imports. More than half of firms (55%) sell 1% to 25% of their products or services outside of the U.S., while more than two-thirds (67%) source 1% to 25% of their inputs from outside of the U.S. On the other hand, more than one-third (36%) of firms do not sell their products or services internationally, and only 16% of firms source none of their imports from outside of the U.S. Additionally, a majority of firms do not expect their sourcing decisions to change in the next year (57%) or next three years (53%). Almost a quarter of firms (23%) anticipate slight reductions in internationally sourced inputs in the next three years. Over the next year, 16% of firms forecast increases in sourcing outside of the U.S., while 18% expect increases in the next three years.

Weeks ahead of the inauguration, manufacturers provided the Trump administration with a list of several dozen regulations that should be reconsidered or rescinded to protect manufacturers’ competitiveness. This list covered everything from power plant regulations to employment rules, and some of its recommendations have already been enacted—such as the revocation of the ban on liquefied natural gas exports, which President Trump ordered on Monday.

But signing executive orders is not enough to right-size the regulatory state and remove restrictions on manufacturers’ growth—in general, final agency rules can only be amended through notice-and-comment rulemaking. What does the administration need to do to make this rollback stick?

NAM Chief Legal Officer Linda Kelly spoke to us about the policy and legal landscape that the new administration will have to navigate.

The long term: “Manufacturers need these regulatory changes to withstand the test of time—and legal scrutiny,” said Kelly. Any changes to regulatory policy will be met with legal challenges, which will delay their benefits for manufacturers.

• The new administration needs to do everything by the book and carefully follow recent pronouncements in administrative law, or its policies will not survive, Kelly warned.
• Conducting robust cost-benefit analysis, soliciting public input and tying its actions to congressional mandates will all help the administration make its policies stick, she advised.

The legal hurdles: The big developments overshadowing this round of regulatory reform include the Supreme Court’s Loper Bright decision, which freed courts from deferring to agencies’ interpretations of statutes. Instead, the courts themselves must decide on the “best reading of a statute.”

• When the Trump administration faces judges skeptical of regulatory rollbacks and no longer obligated to defer to agency interpretation, they must come armed with well-reasoned justifications supported by data and informed by the expertise of the regulated public.
• In many cases, the NAM can provide this expertise and crucial data through the rulemaking process, and the NAM Legal Center can help defend pro-manufacturing policies by intervening in litigation and filing amicus briefs.

Agencies in need: Another new requirement for the administration emerged from Ohio v. EPA, which strengthened the requirement that agencies meaningfully respond to objections to proposed rules raised during public comment periods.

• Here again, manufacturers will play a crucial role, said Kelly, offering agencies the evidence they need to support their policymaking.

The last word: “The Trump administration has to do its homework on the front end,” said Kelly, to survive the inevitable legal challenge that will follow its regulatory changes. “Manufacturers and the NAM Legal Center stand ready to help create a court-durable regulatory environment that enables innovation and prosperity.”

Washington, D.C. – National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement on the passing of Jerry Jasinowski, former NAM president and CEO (1990–2004) and former president of the Manufacturing Institute, the NAM’s 501(c)3 workforce development and education affiliate:

“For decades, Jerry Jasinowski was a force for good in our nation’s capital, a champion for policies that created economic opportunity, a standard-bearer for the industry and an advocate for the manufacturing workforce of America.

“Jerry guided the NAM through some of the most consequential policy debates and economic shifts of the era, shaping the post-Cold War economy. As lawmakers debated history-making agreements like NAFTA and the Trade Promotion Authority Act, they turned to Jerry for expertise and insight. When recession hit in the early 1990s and early 2000s, his steady advocacy helped guide the nation and the industry toward recovery, and his political and media savvy shaped public perceptions of manufacturing. He was a persistent and persuasive voice, not only in the halls of power, but on the air and on America’s editorial pages.

“As Jerry led the industry through a time of transformation, he also transformed the NAM for the better. He elevated the voices of America’s small and medium-sized manufacturers, allowing them to tell their stories directly to members of Congress and giving them a larger role in shaping the direction of the association. Many of America’s small and family-owned manufacturers are the leading voices in today’s most consequential debates on taxes, regulations and more. That, too, is a result of Jerry’s foresight.

“Jerry had the vision to recognize the need to build the manufacturing workforce of tomorrow, and under his leadership, the Manufacturing Institute was created. It became one of his proudest accomplishments and is undoubtedly a cornerstone of his legacy. Today, the MI is the authority on talent in manufacturing, providing recruitment and retention strategies to companies nationwide.

“Through numerous innovative programs, the MI is engaging students as early as middle and high school, recruiting women into manufacturing careers, leading apprenticeship and job training programs, helping veterans transition into the industry and creating opportunities through second-chance programs for individuals reentering the workforce. Its rapid and continued growth and the lives it has changed are a testament to the wisdom of Jerry’s vision.

“From his earlier days as a senior economic adviser to former President Jimmy Carter to his later years as an author and columnist, Jerry spent a career in the spotlight, working alongside and counseling presidents, chief executives and media personalities. But his focus remained steadfast—empowering the people who make things in America and improving livelihoods for all.

“The NAM today mourns the loss of a beloved former leader, whose vision and example we still revere today. We extend our deepest condolences to his wife, Isabel, and to his entire family and all his loved ones, and we make a commitment to celebrate and advance his legacy. After all, his legacy is a stronger, more engaged, more respected manufacturing industry in America.”

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.93 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

In his first few hours in office, President Trump outlined the broad contours of his “America First Trade Policy.” Among the primary objectives: to “reduce dependence on foreign nations for critical supply chains,” “promote investment and productivity” and “enhance our [n]ation’s industrial and technological advantages.”

Key takeaways: The president did not announce new tariffs. His executive order instructs key agencies to begin looking at underlying concerns about unfair or unbalanced trade, specific concerns regarding trade with China and matters related to economic security. The findings could form the basis for the administration’s choice of remedy, potentially leading to more tariffs and other policy measures.

• President Trump “is wasting no time in taking action to strengthen America’s hand on trade, and manufacturers appreciate his focus on combatting unfair practices that hurt American workers,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons wrote on Tuesday. 

What comes next:  Three comprehensive reports are due by agencies to the President by April 1. Issues to be investigated include:

• Persistent trade deficits;
• Unfair trade practices;
• Currency manipulation;
• Importation of counterfeit products and contraband;
• China’s compliance with the “Phase One” deal; and
• Review of the U.S. export control system.

Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China: The EO tasks the Commerce Department with assessing unlawful migration and fentanyl flows from Canada, Mexico and China. The findings are also due April 1.

• Prior to that date, President Trump could issue a separate EO using international emergency powers. This would enable him to impose tariffs sooner.

Building on past success: The president cited the China Phase One deal, the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement and Section 232 tariffs as successful elements of his first-term agenda.

Expect USMCA review to kick into gear: The EO also instructs the United States Trade Representative to begin its public consultation processes in preparation for the six-year review of the USMCA and to assess the impacts of U.S. participation in the agreement.

The NAM’s view: Speaking to CTV from the Canadian Embassy on Inauguration Day, NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said:

• “We are in a global economy, and we want to be able to produce as much as we can. We need the entire continent of North America to be able to do exactly that.”
• “The United States, Canada and Mexico—because of the USMCA that was negotiated and implemented a few years ago—has the opportunity to take on together some actions to thwart problematic, market-distorting practices that are coming out of other countries, specifically China.”

Related news: In another EO, the president pulled the U.S. out of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development global tax deal on the grounds that the agreement “allows extraterritorial jurisdiction over American income but also limits our nation’s ability to enact tax policies that serve the interests of American businesses and workers.”

President Trump has frequently emphasized his intention to remove burdensome regulations that weigh on manufacturers and other businesses. In his first day on the job, he took steps to set this rollback in motion. Here’s what manufacturers need to know.

Regulatory freeze: As most presidents do when they take office, President Trump imposed a freeze on new and in-process regulations.

• The freeze pauses any rules from the outgoing Biden administration that have been proposed but not finalized, finalized but not sent to the Federal Register or sent to the Federal Register but not published.
• The executive order also recommends that agencies delay the effective dates of any published-but-not-yet-effective Biden rules by at least 60 days, giving the administration time to decide whether to rescind or revise the rules.

Reinstating policies: President Trump also rescinded several of President Biden’s executive orders, reinstating policies that had been in place during Trump’s first term.

• Most prominently, President Trump undid President Biden’s rescission of his “one-in-two-out” policy, setting the stage for more reworked and repealed regulations than new rules in his second term.
• He also rescinded a Biden order that had reduced agencies’ obligations to seek public input on guidance documents, which agencies use to interpret regulations and give direction to regulated parties.

Establishing DOGE: President Trump also established the Department of Government Efficiency, which will “be dedicated to advancing the president’s 18-month DOGE agenda,” including modernizing technology and software, increasing efficiency and reducing the size of government.

• DOGE will play a role in implementing the president’s new hiring freeze: the new organization will have 90 days to work with the Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Personnel Management on a plan to reduce the size of the federal government’s workforce while the hiring freeze is ongoing.

The NAM says: “The regulatory burden facing manufacturers is sapping growth, costing the U.S. economy more than $3 trillion annually, with manufacturers shouldering $350 billion in annual regulatory costs. Small manufacturers—the backbone of our supply chain—are especially hard hit, with costs exceeding $50,000 per employee per year, or about $1 million for a 20-person shop,” said NAM Managing Vice President of Policy Chris Netram.

• “The NAM has already provided the new administration with more than three dozen regulatory actions to ease the regulatory burden on our industry.”
• “The NAM looks forward to working with the Administration to right-size the regulatory burden, providing smart, tailored rules that ensure the United States remains the best place in the world to build and create, fueling economic growth and strengthening our global competitiveness.”

President Trump’s flurry of executive orders also included major changes to immigration policy.

National emergency: President Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border, aiming to bolster border security and deter illegal entry into the country. Specific actions include:

• Building physical barriers, both temporary and permanent;
• Directing the Department of Homeland Security to deter illegal immigration and detain illegal immigrants until they can be removed swiftly from the country;
• Reinstating the “Remain in Mexico” policy; and
• Terminating the CBP One app, which is used to schedule border appointments and facilitate entry into the U.S.

Forceful intervention: Another EO directs the military to protect the sovereignty, territorial integrity and security of the U.S. and its borders.

• President Trump also defined the situation at the southern border as an “invasion,” effectively suspending the ability of individuals to apply for asylum.

Other actions: President Trump reinstated his 2017 border security EO that withholds federal funds from sanctuary cities while encouraging collaboration between federal and state agencies, steps up deportations and directs U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to hire 10,000 immigration officers. He also restored a 2017 EO providing for “enhanced vetting” of refugees.

• President Trump also issued an EO on birthright citizenship, setting up legal challenges over his administration’s interpretation of the 14th Amendment.

The NAM says: “President Trump is right to make the border a first priority,” said NAM Managing Vice President of Policy Chris Netram. “Control of our borders is a national security imperative that provides certainty about the individuals in our country and ensures the rule of law is upheld.”

• “Even as we secure our borders, we must ensure that America remains a beacon of opportunity and innovation. Manufacturers welcome the opportunity to work with the Trump administration and Congress to fix our broken immigration system. America deserves a modern, well-functioning system for welcoming new people to the United States that helps drive our economy forward, meets our nation’s workforce needs and ensures that the United States remains the most innovative and prosperous country on the planet.”

Among President Trump’s Day One executive orders were several manufacturing-crucial energy policies. We break them down here.
 
Domestic energy resources: The president focused on unlocking the vast wealth of energy resources in the United States with the “Unleashing American Energy” executive order, which:

• Orders a 30-day review by all federal departments and agencies of regulations and other barriers to the identification and development of domestic energy resources (particularly oil, coal, natural gas, biofuels, critical minerals, nuclear and hydropower);
• Directs the Department of Energy to resume liquefied natural gas export permits, ending the previous administration’s moratorium, and resumes review of LNG export applications;
• Rescinds the “NEPA Phase 2” rulemaking, the Council on Environmental Quality’s revisions to the National Environmental Policy Act;
• Directs the reconsideration of the legality of regulating greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act;
• Revokes an executive order by President Carter that gives the CEQ authority to issue binding regulations to other agencies;
• Terminates state emissions waivers that limit the sale of gas-powered vehicles and begins the process of unwinding a suite of vehicle tailpipe regulations from the previous administration;
• Directs all agencies to provide the opportunity for public comment and rigorous, peer-reviewed scientific analysis for regulations; and
• Disbands the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases.  

A “National Energy Emergency”: The president’s declaration of a “national energy emergency”:

• Authorizes the heads of every federal agency and department to use emergency powers to facilitate domestic energy development and production;
• Requires the Environmental Protection Agency and DOE to consider issuing emergency fuel waivers to allow for year-round sale of E15 fuel with a blend of 15% ethanol;
• Requires a report from the Army Corps of Engineers and other agencies on potential and planned permitting provisions to speed up energy infrastructure permitting under various legislative measures; and
• Requires agencies to use emergency authority under the Endangered Species Act to expedite energy project permitting consultations.   

Alaskan energy: The president’s “ Unleashing Alaska’s Extraordinary Resource Potential” order provides for the opening of Alaskan lands to energy exploration and development and promotes Alaskan LNG production.
 
The Paris Agreement: “Putting America First in International Environmental Agreements” withdraws the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, a 2015 climate change accord.
 
Rescissions: “Initial Rescissions of Harmful Executive Orders and Actions” includes revisions of multiple executive orders put in place by the previous administration, including “Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad,” “Establishment of the Climate Change Support Office,” “Climate-Related Financial Risk” and “Strengthening American Leadership in Clean Cars and Trucks.”  
 
Offshore wind: The “Temporary Withdrawal of All Areas on the Outer Continental Shelf from Offshore Wind Leasing and Review of the Federal Government’s Leasing and Permitting Practices for Wind Projects” blocks lease sales for offshore wind projects and pauses new approvals for leases, permits or loans for on- and offshore wind projects.   
 
Our view: “Expanding domestic energy production drives innovation, creates jobs and powers the growth that keeps America at the forefront of the global economy,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons wrote in a social post Monday.

• “Energy is the lifeblood of our industry, and we look forward to working with President Trump to build our manufacturing nation.”   

Building permits fell 0.7% in December and 3.1% over the year. Permits for single-family homes rose 1.6% in December but declined 2.5% over the year. Permits for buildings with five or more units fell 5.8% from November and 5.4% over the year.

In December, housing starts jumped 15.8% from November but slipped 4.4% from December 2023. Additionally, starts for single-family homes rose 3.3% from November but fell 2.6% from December 2023. Meanwhile, starts for buildings with five or more units soared 58.9% from November but declined 11.3% over the year.

Housing completions decreased 4.8% over the month and 0.8% over the year. Single-family home completions fell 7.4% from November and dropped by the same percentage over the year. Completions for buildings with five or more units decreased 1.7% over the month but grew 9.4% from December 2023.