News & Insights

In July, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.7% annual gain, one of the weakest annual price increases in the past decade. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 2.3% in July, down from 2.7% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 1.8% year-over-year, down from 2.2%. Among the 20 cities, New York again posted the highest annual gain at 6.4%, followed by Chicago at 6.2% and Cleveland at 4.5%. Tampa again recorded the lowest annual return, with prices falling 2.8%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index ticked down 0.2% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City and 20-City Composites both decreased 0.3%. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index and the 10-City and 20-City Composites all fell 0.1%.

Short-term price movements in July underscore the housing market’s fragility. Geographic divergence continues to characterize changes as Northeastern and Midwestern markets, after seeing modest price growth, are now top performers. Sun Belt and Western markets are now faring worse, including Tampa (down 2.8%), Phoenix (down 0.9%), Miami (down 1.3%), San Diego (down 0.7%) and San Francisco (down 1.9%).

This housing cycle is showing signs of normalization with the ongoing rotation in regional performance. Stability is emerging as markets with strong local economies are thriving in a market more aligned with overall inflation. Furthermore, this new equilibrium points to a healthier trajectory for housing in the long run.

Consumer confidence decreased 3.6 points in September to 94.2, the lowest level since April. Among its components, the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index both declined, with consumers’ pessimism about future job availability and future business conditions being partially mitigated by stronger expectations about future income.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, fell 7 points to 125.4. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, declined 1.3 points to 73.4, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation are still poor, with 26.9% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down slightly from August (30.2%), while 19.1% said jobs were “hard to get,” unchanged from August and up from 14.5% in January. Looking to the future, 25.6% anticipate fewer available jobs in the next six months, down slightly from 25.9% the prior month.

Mentions of high prices and inflation rose in September, regaining the top position influencing consumers’ views of the economy. Meanwhile, mentions of tariffs declined in September but continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations stepped down from 6.1% to 5.8% in September. Meanwhile, 51.9% of consumers, compared to 52.1% in August, expect interest rates to rise, and a larger share of consumers (25.6% vs. 23.6% in August) expect rates to fall.

Buying plans for cars decreased in September, while buying plans for homes increased to a four-month high. Consumers’ plans for buying big-ticket items changed little overall in September but exhibited variation across items. For example, intentions to purchase TVs and dryers rose the most, while refrigerators saw the largest declines. Vacation intentions fell again to the lowest level since April, with lower intentions to travel abroad driving the decline. Overall, consumers’ views of their current and future financial situation declined slightly from August.

In September, Texas factory activity continued to expand but at a slower pace than the prior month. The production index declined from 15.3 to 5.2, falling below the average of 9.6. Other measures also moved down in September, pointing to slower growth. The new orders index fell 8.4 points into negative territory in September, decreasing to -2.6. Capacity utilization slipped 9.8 points to 3.9, while shipments dropped 7.5 points to 6.7.

Perceptions of manufacturing business conditions worsened in September, with the general business conditions index falling 6.9 points to -8.7, while the outlook also declined, with the company outlook index decreasing 4.3 points to -1. Meanwhile the uncertainty index dropped 4.4 points to 13.9, below the series average of 17.2.

Labor market indicators suggest a decline in headcounts and a slightly longer workweek in September, with the employment index dropping 12.2 points to -3.4, while the hours worked index fell 11.6 points but remained positive at 3.4. Nearly 13% of firms reported net hiring while a larger percentage (16.1%) noted net layoffs.

Price and wage pressures were largely unchanged in September. The prices paid for raw materials index edged down 0.3 points to 43.4. Meanwhile, the prices received for finished goods index declined 3.4 points to 11.7. The wages and benefits index inched up 0.5 points to 15.9 but stayed below the series average of 21.

The outlook for future manufacturing activity weakened from August, with the future production index falling 8.8 points to 31.6. Meanwhile, the future general business activity index and future company outlook index both declined, dropping to 8.4 and 11.7, respectively.

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.0 in September, down slightly from the August reading of 53.0. New orders increased for the ninth consecutive month, although at a slower rate and below the survey average. Tariffs continued to hit exports, particularly to Canada and Mexico, and lead to increased input and output costs in September. Nonetheless, output price inflation slowed to its weakest pace since January.

Despite a slowdown in demand growth leading to weaker output gains, production rose sufficiently to allow stocks of finished goods to rise for the second consecutive month amid worries over tariffs and supply-side uncertainty. Meanwhile, delivery times lengthened in September due to difficulties importing goods and stock shortages.

Although tariffs continued to weigh on business confidence, overall business expectations improved slightly compared to August. Many manufacturers anticipate an increase in sales over the next year, and some see tariffs as driving expansions in domestic production. Furthermore, despite ongoing uncertainty related to trade and government policies, many manufacturers increased employment levels in September.

In September, global manufacturing activity was relatively unchanged from August, inching down from 50.9 to 50.8. Output and new orders both rose for the second consecutive month in September. However, these increases failed to stimulate other gains, with staffing levels remaining stable for the second consecutive month and new export business falling for the sixth consecutive month. Meanwhile, supply chains remained stretched as lead times lengthened for the 16th consecutive month.

India, Thailand, Netherlands and Myanmar had the highest PMI readings in September. On the other hand, the U.K., Brazil and Canada were some of the larger nations to register declines in activity. The upturn in manufacturing output occurred across consumer, intermediate and investment goods categories for the second consecutive month, with the pace of growth being greatest for consumer goods.

Meanwhile, price pressures eased slightly in September, with the rate of increase in input and output costs both slowing. Forward-looking indicators were more positive, with future output and export orders advancing from the prior month, but the surge in finished goods inventory suggests that production growth could be due largely to stockpiling rather than an improvement in demand.

In September, the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the seventh consecutive month but at a slower pace than the prior month, with the ISM Manufacturing^® PMI increasing to 49.1% from 48.7% in August. One of the four demand indicators improved in September, with the Backlog of Orders Index rising 1.5 percentage points to 46.2%. Meanwhile, the New Orders, New Export Orders and Customers’ Inventories Indexes contracted at faster rates. On the other hand, the Employment Index (45.3%) declined at a slower pace, while the Production Index returned to growth after contracting in August, increasing from 47.8% to 51%.

The New Orders Index contracted after one month of expansion, falling 2.5 percentage points from August. The index hasn’t shown consistent growth since a 24-month streak of expansion ended in May 2022. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, none reported an increase in new orders. Respondents continued to note concern about near-term demand, primarily driven by tariff costs and uncertainty.

The New Export Orders Index contracted for the seventh consecutive month at a faster pace, 4.6 percentage points lower than August. The continued contraction is likely indicative of dampened demand amid ongoing trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Imports Index contracted for the sixth consecutive month and at a faster rate, down 1.3 percentage points to 44.7% in September. Imports continued to contract as tariff pricing results in lower demand compared to prior months.

The Employment Index contracted for the eighth consecutive month but at a slower pace than the prior month, up 1.5 percentage points from August to 45.3%. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, none reported increased employment. Companies continued to focus on layoffs and attrition to restrict headcounts due to uncertainty around near- to mid-term demand. For every comment on hiring, three respondents noted reduced headcounts.

The Prices Index decreased 1.8 percentage points to 61.9%, indicating raw materials prices grew for the 12th straight month in September, but at a slower pace. Of the six-largest manufacturing sectors, all reported increased prices, led by machinery. The increase continues to be driven by steel and aluminum price increases impacting the entire supply chain, as well as the tariffs applied to most imported goods. Roughly 32.5% of companies reported paying higher prices, slightly down from 33.5% in August but still up dramatically from 21% in January.

Job openings for manufacturing decreased by 29,000 to 409,000 in Nondurable goods job openings in August declined by 26,000 to 150,000, while durable goods job openings edged down by 3,000 to 259,000. The manufacturing job openings rate fell to 3.1% from 3.3% in July and from 3.5% the previous year. The rate for nondurable goods manufacturing dropped from 3.5% to 3.0%, while it stayed the same at 3.2% for durable goods.

In the larger economy, the number of job openings ticked up to 7.2 million, an increase of 19,000 from July but a decrease of 422,000 from the previous year. The job openings rate stayed the same at 4.3%, down from 4.6% last year. This data reflects an overall labor market that has eased back to pre-pandemic levels, but remains relatively tight from a historical perspective.

The number of hires in the overall economy decreased 114,000 to 5.1 million in August and 104,000 from the previous year. The hires rate for the overall economy edged down 0.1% in August to 3.2%. Meanwhile, the hires rate for manufacturing stayed the same at 2.4%. The hires rate for durable goods similarly stayed the same at 2.2%, while the hires rate for nondurable goods inched up 0.1% to 2.8%.

In the larger economy, total separations, which include quits, layoffs, discharges and other separations, declined 110,000 from July to 5.1 million and 59,000 from the previous year. The total separations rate edged down 0.1% to 3.2% for the overall economy but inched up 0.1% to 2.5% for manufacturing. Within that rate, layoffs and discharges increased by 5,000 in August for manufacturing, while quits fell by 3,000. The quit and layoff rates continue to remain lower for manufacturing than the total nonfarm sector.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Manufacturers announced that Keira Driansky, EVP and President of North America of Ipsen, has been named to the NAM Board of Directors. Driansky will join the NAM Board to bolster the association’s leadership in policy advocacy, legal action, workforce solutions and operational excellence. She will help the industry advance a manufacturing competitiveness agenda that promotes opportunity and prosperity for all Americans.

Founded in 1895, the NAM, guided by its Board of Directors, is the largest industrial trade association in the United States. The NAM is the nation’s most influential manufacturing advocate, and its membership includes some of the world’s most iconic brands and many of the small manufacturers that power the U.S. economy. Approximately 85% of the NAM’s members are small and medium-sized businesses. Executives on the NAM Board, which comprises leaders representing companies of all sizes in every industrial sector, are the driving force behind the NAM’s efforts.

The NAM is a one-stop shop for manufacturers, telling the story of our industry and equipping manufacturers with invaluable resources through news and insights, thought leadership and partnerships with our digital transformation division, the Manufacturing Leadership Council; our 501(c)3 workforce development and education affiliate, the Manufacturing Institute; and our innovation management division, the Innovation Research Interchange.

The NAM and its members are at the forefront of every important policy debate, focusing on solutions to help the industry compete in the global economy and to help the country address manufacturing policy priorities ranging from advancing pro-growth tax policies and restoring regulatory certainty to strengthening energy security and building a workforce of the future.

“It’s an honor to join the NAM Board and collaborate with fellow leaders who are passionate about strengthening American manufacturing,” said Driansky. “I’m excited to contribute to the industry’s continued growth and innovation.”

“The next few years will shape the manufacturing industry’s trajectory for decades. At a pivotal moment, the NAM will be stronger thanks to Keira’s service on our Board of Directors,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “Keira will help lead the charge as we drive a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that empowers every manufacturer across the United States to build, invest, grow, thrive and lead. On behalf of the entire NAM team, I am grateful for Keira’s partnership as we advance the values that have made America exceptional and our industry strong—free enterprise, competitiveness, individual liberty and equal opportunity.”

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.90 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

Washington, D.C. – With a potential government shutdown looming, National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement:

“A functioning government is essential for a strong manufacturing economy. Manufacturers need certainty, not disruption. Our leaders in Washington must come together and keep the government open, so it continues working for the American people. From supply chains and permitting to regulatory certainty, product approvals and facility inspections, manufacturers rely on the government to do its job and provide the stability that drives growth.”

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.90 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

Existing home sales edged down 0.2% in August but increased 1.8% over the year. Housing inventory stepped down to 1.53 million units, reflecting a 1.3% decline from July but an 11.7% jump from last year. The median existing home price was $422,600, up 2.0% from last year. The Midwest and West posted monthly increases in existing home sales, while the Northeast and South registered declines in August.

Single-family home sales inched down 0.3% in August, but rose 2.5% over the year, with the median price increasing 1.9% from August 2024 to $427,800. Condo and co-op sales stayed the same over the month at 370,000 units in August but declined 5.1% from last year. Meanwhile, the median price for condos and co-ops stepped up 0.6% from the prior year to $366,800.

Homes were typically on the market for 31 days in August, up from 28 days in July and 26 days in August 2024. First-time buyers made up 28% of sales in August, the same as July but up from 26% in August 2024.