News & Insights

In December, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.3% annual gain, down from the 1.4% gain in November and the weakest full year gain since 2011. The 10-City Composite increased 1.9%, down from 2.0% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 1.4% year-over-year, consistent with November’s gain. Among the 20 cities, Chicago again posted the highest annual gain at 5.3%, followed by New York at 5.1% and Cleveland at 4.0%. Meanwhile, Tampa again posted the lowest annual return, with prices falling 2.9%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index declined 0.3% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite both edged down 0.1%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index rose 0.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both grew 0.5%. The Northeast and Midwest continued to outperform other regions as the second half of the year exhibited weaker price growth. Meanwhile, in addition to Tampa, the Sun Belt market kept declining, including Denver (down 2.1%), Phoenix (down 1.5%), Dallas (down 1.5%) and Miami (down 1.5%).

The combination of high financing costs and prices continued to cap growth. Before seasonal adjustment, 15 of the 20 major metro areas saw price declines in December. Over the year, home prices trailed inflation. In comparison, home prices outpaced inflation by 3.7 percentage points over the prior decade, a trend that reversed starting in June 2025.

Consumer confidence increased 2.2 points in February to 91.2. Among its components, the Present Situation Index declined while the Expectations Index rose as consumers’ concerns regarding the present situation worsened, and concerns about the future eased.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, declined 1.8 points to 120.0. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, rose 4.8 points to 72.0, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation improved slightly, with 28.0% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” up from January (25.8%), while 20.6% said jobs were “hard to get,” up from January (19.0%). Looking to the future, 15.7% said they expect more jobs to be available, up from 14.8% the prior month, while 26.1% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 28.7% the previous month.

Mentions of high prices, inflation, trade and politics continued to top the list of topics influencing consumers’ views of the economy. At the same time, mentions of the labor market eased somewhat in February, while comments about immigration increased. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations remained elevated but were little changed from January, and the proportion of consumers expecting interest rates to remain high persisted. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe a recession “very likely” over the next year fell, and the small share thinking the economy is already in a recession dipped.

Buying plans for new cars stayed the same in February, while purchasing plans for homes were little changed, although they remained above levels seen a year ago. Consumers’ plans for buying big-ticket items overall improved in February, with used cars, furniture, TVs and smartphones remaining the most popular items among consumers. On the other hand, consumers’ intentions to purchase more services declined overall; however, restaurants, bars and take-out remained the top planned service spending category and edged up in February. Overall, consumers’ views of their current financial situation worsened after surging in January, and views of their future financial situation remained weak.

The Producer Price Index for final demand (also known as wholesale prices) rose 0.5% over the month in January, after prices moved up 0.4% in December. Over the year, producer prices increased 2.9% in January, down from 3.0% in December. Meanwhile, prices for final demand excluding foods, energy and trade services ticked up 0.3% over the month in January after rising the same amount in December. Prices for these goods advanced 3.4% from January 2025.

Within final demand, prices for services jumped 0.8% in January, the largest gain since July, after advancing 0.7% in December. Meanwhile, prices for goods decreased 0.3% in January, after edging down 0.1% in December. Within the final demand services index, margins for professional and commercial equipment wholesaling surged 14.4%, accounting for more than 20% of the January increase. Within the final demand goods index, prices for gasoline fell 5.5%, accounting for nearly 80% of the January decline.

Prices for processed goods for intermediate demand stayed the same in January, consistent with the lack of movement in December. Within the index, prices for nonferrous metals soared 4.8% and 32.9% over the year, while the index for gasoline fell 5.5% and 15.7% year-over-year. Meanwhile, prices for industrial electric power dropped 2.9% from December but increased 3.0% from January 2025. Over the year, the index rose 2.6% after a 3.5% increase in December.

Meanwhile, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand decreased 0.5% in January, after moving up 1.9% in December. The monthly decline was led by a 9.8% drop in raw milk, which plummeted 29.2% over the year. In contrast, prices for nonferrous scrap soared 8.5% in January and 42.3% from January 2025. Over the year, prices for unprocessed goods for intermediate demand decreased 6.1%, the largest 12-month drop since September 2024, after ticking down 0.5% in December.

Manufacturing activity increased in the Tenth District in February, with the month-over-month composite index rising to 5 in February from 0 in January. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity jumped 8 points to 15. The month-over-month activity gain was due to an increase in durable manufacturing, which offset a decline in nondurable manufacturing. At the same time, the new orders index improved in February. The employment index was the only index to be negative this month. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico.

The production and shipments indexes turned positive, rising from -2 to 10 and from -2 to 11, respectively. Meanwhile, new orders jumped to 7, expanding for the first time since September. The employment index fell from 0 to -6, while the average employee workweek index ticked up from 4 to 6. The backlog of orders index turned positive for the first time in over a year, climbing from -11 to 8. At the same time, the pace of growth for prices paid and prices received both weakened slightly, with raw materials prices decreasing 2 points to 42 and prices received edging down 1 point to 18. On the other hand, over the year, the indexes for prices received and paid both increased, moving up to 58 and 81, respectively.

In February, survey respondents were asked special questions about their ability to pass through prices and the frequency of prices changes. Nearly one-third of the firms (30%) reported they are able to pass through only up to 20% of higher costs from inputs and labor. Additionally, 10% can pass through 20% to 40%, 15% are able to pass through 40% to 60%, 13% can pass through 60% to 80% and 28% said they can pass through 80% to 100% of the increased cost from inputs and labor. When asked about price changes, 12% of firms reported they are changing prices much more often than last year, 36% somewhat more often, 4% somewhat less often and 2% much less often. At the same time, 46% of firms reported no change in the frequency of price changes compared to last year.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District contracted in February and at a faster pace than the previous month, with the composite manufacturing index decreasing from -6 to -10. At the same time, the local business conditions index declined from -8 in January to -15 in February. Despite current weakness, manufacturers are more optimistic about the future, with the outlook for future local business conditions rising from 19 in January to 22 in February. The Fifth District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments and new orders remained negative and contracted at a faster pace, falling from -5 to -13 and from -6 to -9, respectively. The indexes for employment and vendor lead times ticked down, moving from -6 to -7 and from 0 to -1, respectively. Meanwhile, the share of firms reporting backlogs worsened, edging down from -13 to -14. On the other hand, the average growth rate of prices paid and prices received slowed in February.

Looking ahead, firms expect both price indexes to increase in the next 12 months but at a slower pace than forecasted in January. Expectations for future shipments and new orders remained positive but ticked down from 34 to 29 and from 36 to 35, respectively. Expectations for backlogs grew from 4 to 6. Meanwhile, firms’ expectations about equipment and software spending turned positive, increasing from -3 to -2. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District remained optimistic about future business conditions and investment plans.

In February, Texas factory activity improved after expanding the prior month. The production index increased from 11.2 to 12.5, remaining above the series average of 9.6. The new orders index ticked down 0.7 points to 11.1, while the capacity utilization index stepped up 4.7 points to 11.8. Meanwhile, the shipments index decreased 2.1 points to 9.9. The Eleventh District consists of all of Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico.

Perceptions of manufacturing business conditions strengthened in February, with the general business activity index rising 1.4 points to 0.2. At the same time, the company outlook index inched up 0.2 points to 3.1. On the other hand, the uncertainty index increased 1.7 points to 6.5 but remained below the series average of 16.8.

Labor market indicators suggested weaker growth in headcounts and a longer workweek in February, with the employment index edging down 0.7 points to 7.5 and the hours worked index rising 5.4 points to 6.1. Nearly 18.0% of firms reported net hiring, while a smaller percentage (10.5%) noted net layoffs.

Price pressures weakened slightly, while wage pressures accelerated in February. The prices paid for raw materials index declined 5.4 points to 31.7. Meanwhile, the prices received for finished goods index ticked down 0.6 points to 17.9 but remained far higher than the series average. The wages and benefits index jumped 14.5 points to 31.9, rising above the series average of 21.0.

The outlook for future manufacturing activity weakened in February, despite the future production index improving 5.1 points to 34.3. Moreover, the future company outlook index moved up 2.5 points to 25.7, while the future general business activity declined 3.9 points to 12.7, remaining above the series average.

New orders for manufactured goods decreased 0.7% in December following a 2.7% increase in November. Meanwhile, new orders for manufactured goods grew 3.7% over the year. When excluding transportation, new orders inched up 0.4% over the month and 0.9% year-over-year in December. Orders for durable goods declined 1.4% following a 5.4% rise in November. Year to date, durable goods orders jumped 7.8%. Nondurable goods orders stayed the same in December after ticking down 0.1% in November. Nondurable goods orders decreased 0.3% over the year.

New orders for nondefense aircraft and parts led the decrease in durable goods orders, falling 24.8% following November’s 98.2% surge. In December, the largest monthly increase occurred in defense search and navigation equipment, which climbed 26.9% after declining 8.7% in November. The largest over-the-year changes occurred in nondefense aircraft and parts (up 106.2%) and photographic equipment (down 5.4%).

Factory shipments rose 0.5% in December after edging down 0.2% in November. Shipments over the year grew 1.7%. Shipments excluding transportation increased 0.4% in December following a 0.1% gain the previous month. Shipments for durable goods moved up 1.0% following a 0.3% decline in November and are up 3.7% year to date. Meanwhile, nondurable goods shipments stayed the same after ticking down 0.1% the prior month, and have declined 0.3% year to date.

Unfilled orders for all manufacturing industries increased 0.9% in December after rising 1.4% in November. Unfilled orders over the year jumped 10.3%. Inventories stepped up 0.9% year-over-year. The inventories-to-shipments ratio edged down from 1.57 to 1.56 in December. Meanwhile, the unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio for durable goods moved down to 7.01 from 7.04 in November.

PHOENIX – Following the announcement of the United States military operations in Iran, National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement:

“Manufacturers in the United States have always stood ready when our nation calls. From serving as the Arsenal of Democracy to equipping those who defend freedom today, our industry has the capacity to support U.S. objectives across multiple theaters and sustained operations. Today, manufacturers honor the courage and commitment of the men and women in uniform who stand watch and carry out this mission.

“Since November 4, 1979, the United States has endured hostility and terrorism from a rogue government in Tehran. Time and again, the Iranian regime has sponsored international terrorism, destabilized its region, violated the rights of its own people and disrupted legitimate commerce and maritime security.

“Through Operation Epic Fury, President Trump has initiated major combat operations with these stated objectives:

• Eliminating imminent threats posed by the regime,
• Preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons,
• Neutralizing military infrastructure that threatens regional and global security,
• Countering destabilizing regional aggression, and
• Supporting the Iranian people’s right to determine their own future.

“At moments of consequence, national unity matters. Congress should fully engage to ensure clarity of mission, alignment of authority and the sustained support of the American people.

“We also call upon allied governments and partner business associations around the globe to stand together to protect regional stability, safeguard global commerce and reinforce the collective resolve that keeps peace through credible strength.

“When security, commerce and liberty are threatened, the United States must lead with strength, resolve and the support of its people.”

-NAM- 

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.95 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org. 

2026 NAM State of Manufacturing Tour Makes Final Stop in Phoenix, Arizona 

PHOENIX – The National Association of Manufacturers, official partner of America250, concluded its 2026 NAM State of Manufacturing Tour in Phoenix under the theme “Building for the Future.”  

After 10 days on a cross-country tour, manufacturing leaders delivered a final, urgent message: the time is now for Congress to pass robust infrastructure investments and commonsense, comprehensive permitting reform. 

“Arizona shows what happens when competitiveness leads,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “It didn’t happen by chance—it happened because this state has chosen to lead on taxes, workforce and a business climate. But even here, federal permitting delays threaten progress. If we’re serious about semiconductors, critical minerals and energy infrastructure, it’s time to build the next generation of robust infrastructure we need, and 2026 must be the year of permitting reform.” 

In Phoenix, the NAM partnered with the Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry for a full day of events highlighting the state’s leadership in industrial growth. The visit began with a roundtable discussion on permitting reform with business and community leaders, followed by tours of EMD Electronics—a trusted partner to the semiconductor industry—and Four Peaks Brewery, the largest and oldest craft brewery in Arizona. Together, the stops showcased the diverse reach of manufacturing in the state— from critical minerals and semiconductors to food and beverage production.  

“Arizona has proven that smart policy and regulatory clarity drive investment and growth. But at the federal level, permitting delays are slowing projects that matter to our economy and national security,” said Arizona Chamber of Commerce & Industry President and CEO Danny Seiden. “If America wants to lead in advanced manufacturing, we need a system that is predictable, efficient, and built for today’s demands. We’re proud to partner with the NAM to advance practical reforms that strengthen U.S. competitiveness.” 

 “Arizona has become a premier destination for semiconductor manufacturing, and we’re proud to be part of that dynamic and growing ecosystem,” said Katherine Dei Cas, Executive Vice President, EMD Electronics, the Electronics business of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany. “We continue to invest in our capabilities and our people while ensuring continued proximity to customers to enable the operational excellence required in advanced manufacturing. Strong collaboration among industry, community, and government partners is essential to sustaining this momentum and ensuring semiconductor innovation.” 

Spanning seven states—New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Texas and Arizona—, the tour brought together manufacturing leaders, workers, educators, students and elected officials to highlight the policies and conditions needed for the United States to compete and win in a global economy, —focusing on innovation, tax policy, permitting reform, energy dominance, workforce and trade policy.  

-NAM- 

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.953 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org. 

2026 NAM State of Manufacturing Tour Stops in Houston, Texas

HOUSTON – The National Association of Manufacturers, official partner of America250, continued its 2026 NAM State of Manufacturing Tour today in Houston, Texas, under the theme, “Powering the Future.” Throughout the day, leaders underscored how abundant, affordable energy and modern infrastructure is essential to a competitive manufacturing sector.

In Houston, the NAM partnered with the Greater Houston Partnership to highlight the region’s manufacturing strength, where nearly 1 million workers power a sector representing 7% of the Texas workforce. NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons, Executive Vice President Erin Streeter and other NAM leaders began the day at global energy technology leader Schneider Electric—an official tour sponsor alongside NTT DATA—for a visit to its newly opened 10,500 square foot Innovation Center, one of the world’s largest energy innovation hubs. The day concluded with a tour of Port Houston’s Bayport Container Terminal, demonstrating how modern trade infrastructure underpins domestic production and global leadership and the importance of the Port’s role as a global logistics hub to connect port infrastructure, manufacturing exports and supply chain resilience to national growth.

At Port Houston’s Bayport Container Terminal, leaders saw firsthand how world-class trade infrastructure fuels domestic production and reinforces America’s global competitiveness. As one of the nation’s most vital logistics gateways, the Port plays a critical role in connecting port infrastructure to manufacturing exports, strengthening supply chain resilience and driving national economic growth.

“Today’s tour stop was about powering the future—and there is no better place to have that conversation than Houston, the Energy Capital of the World,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “Schneider Electric is a pioneer and a powerhouse for innovation and for the manufacturing sector. You cannot talk about the state of manufacturing in the United States without talking about the innovation and leadership right here at Schneider. And at the Port Houston’s Bayport Terminal, we saw why modern infrastructure is critical to moving American-made goods quickly and efficiently. If we want to lead the world in manufacturing, AI and advanced technologies, we need an all-of-the-above energy strategy that keeps prices affordable, strengthens our grid and accelerates permitting reform and we must invest in 21^st century infrastructure—from roads and bridges to ports, rail and waterways—so that manufacturers can make things right here and move them everywhere. When Washington delivers smart energy policy and modern infrastructure, we unlock the greatest manufacturing era in our nation’s history.”

“Hosting the NAM and supporting its U.S. tour reflects our shared commitment to advancing energy technology innovations in this country,” said Andre Marino, Schneider Electric Senior Vice President, Industrial Automation North America. “Houston is home to the global energy conversation, and our Innovation Center here reflects our commitment to bring together electrification, automation, and industrial intelligence to enable smarter, more secure systems for our partners in Texas, across the U.S., and throughout the world.”

“We are honored to join the National Association of Manufacturers and our regional partners in highlighting Houston’s pivotal role in America’s supply chain,” said Port Houston CEO Charlie Jenkins, “Our commitment to investing in resilient infrastructure ensures the Houston Ship Channel remains a gateway for innovation, job creation, and global trade. By working together, we not only strengthen the economic vitality of our nation, our great state of Texas, and our region, but also reinforce Houston’s place at the forefront of U.S. manufacturing and logistics.”

From Houston, the 2026 NAM State of Manufacturing Tour heads west for its final stop— Phoenix, Arizona—on Friday, February 27, where leaders will focus on the urgent need to pass commonsense, comprehensive permitting reform. The tour made stops in New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Dallas, Texas prior to today’s events in Houston. Throughout the tour, the NAM has been meeting with policymakers, manufacturers of all sizes, students and business leaders, advocating for the people and policies that will ensure the United States is the best place in the world to do business. To learn more about the tour and the NAM’s mission, visit https://nam.org/stateofmfg/.

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.95 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.