Input Stories

Manufacturing activity in New York state continued to decline in May. The headline general business activity index worsened slightly from April, slipping from -8.1 to -9.2. On the other hand, the new orders and shipments indexes grew after contracting the previous month, with new orders increasing from -8.8 to 7.0 and shipments rising from -2.9 to 3.5. Unfilled orders and delivery times both inched up from 4.1 to 4.8 and from 0.0 to 1.0, respectively. Meanwhile, inventories fell from 7.4 to 4.8, and supply availability dropped from -5.7 to -11.4.

The index for the number of employees fell further into negative territory, declining from -2.6 to -5.1, while the average employee workweek improved but remained negative, rising from -9.1 to -3.4. Input prices ticked up for the fifth consecutive month to 59.0, the highest level in two years. Meanwhile, selling prices fell 5.8 points to 22.9, a reflection that prices received increased at a slower pace while the pace of rising input prices continued to quicken.

Looking forward, firms continue to expect conditions will remain gloomy six months ahead. The index for future business activity remained negative but rose 5.4 points to -2.0. New orders are anticipated to decrease, but by a smaller degree, with the indicator rising from -6.6 to -2.7. Meanwhile, capital spending plans turned negative, decreasing 8.3 points to -6.7. On the other hand, employment expectations rose 8.2 points to 11.6, but the average employee workweek outlook weakened, continuing a trend from the prior four months. Input prices are expected to remain high, but selling price expectations retracted 10.7 points to 35.2. Meanwhile, supply availability is forecasted to continue to contract in the next six months and at a faster pace than predicted in April.