Input Stories

Manufacturing activity in New York state ticked up slightly in July. The headline general business activity index strengthened from June, rising 21.5 points to 5.5, the first positive reading since February. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes also increased and turned positive, to 2.0 from -14.2 and 11.5 from -7.2, respectively. Unfilled orders improved slightly but remained negative, rising from -8.3 to -6.4, while delivery times lengthened from 1.8 to 8.3. Inventories grew notably, jumping from 0.9 to 15.6, but supply availability continued to worsen, dipping from -8.3 to -11.0.

The index for the number of employees improved from 4.7 to 9.2, while the average employee workweek moved into positive territory, rising from -1.5 to 4.2. Input prices again climbed upward, from 46.8 to 56.0. Meanwhile, selling prices moderated slightly, edging down 0.9 to 25.7 points, a reflection of a slower pace of increase for prices received while the pace of prices paid quickened.

Looking forward, firms’ expectations remained elevated after last month’s jump in optimism. The index for future business activity improved 2.9 points to 24.1. In the next six months, new orders and shipments are still expected to increase, but at a slightly slower pace than anticipated last month, clocking in at 25.3 and 19.3, respectively. Additionally, capital spending plans returned to positive territory, rising 16.5 points to 9.2. Employment expectations also remained positive and little changed, inching up from 10.4 to 11.0, while the average employee workweek outlook strengthened but remained negative, rising from
-1.8 to -0.9. Input prices are expected to remain high but retracted slightly from 59.6 to 58.7. On the other hand, selling price expectations ticked up 0.9 points to 42.2. Meanwhile, supply availability is still forecasted to contract in the next six months but at a slower pace than predicted in June.