Input Stories

Manufacturing activity in New York state continued to decline in June. The headline general business activity index worsened from May, falling from -9.2 to -16.0. Meanwhile, the new orders and shipments indexes contracted after growing the previous month, with new orders decreasing from 7.0 to -14.2 and shipments declining from 3.5 to -7.2. Unfilled orders also declined 13.1 points to -8.3, while delivery times inched up from 1.0 to 1.8. Inventories fell from 4.8 to 0.9, but supply availability improved from -11.4 to -8.3.

The index for the number of employees rose into positive territory, improving from -5.1 to 4.7, while the average employee workweek improved but remained negative, rising from -3.4 to -1.5. Input prices ticked down 12.2 points to 46.8 after reaching the highest level in two years last month. Meanwhile, selling prices rose from 22.9 to 26.6 points, a reflection that prices paid increased at a slower pace while the pace of prices received quickened.

Looking forward, firms’ expectations vastly improved after a gloomy outlook in May and April. The index for future business activity turned positive, rising 23.2 points to 21.2. New orders are similarly expected to increase, with the forward-looking indicator rising from -2.7 to 26.1. Nevertheless, capital spending plans fell further into negative territory, dropping 0.6 points to -7.3. Employment expectations also ticked down from 11.6 to 10.4, while the average employee workweek outlook strengthened but remained negative, rising from -4.8 to -1.8. Input prices are expected to remain high but retracted slightly from 66.7 to 59.6. On the other hand, selling price expectations rose 6.1 points to 41.3. Meanwhile, supply availability is still forecasted to contract in the next six months but at a slower pace than predicted in May.