NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey: Manufacturers’ Sentiment Mixed in Q4
The NAM’s latest Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey finds manufacturers balancing optimism with continued business concerns.
What’s going on: Optimism among manufacturers increased in the fourth quarter of 2025, with 69.9% of respondents giving a favorable forecast for their companies.
- That’s up nearly 5 percentage points from the third quarter and nearly 15 percentage points from the second quarter.
- However, optimism remains under the historical average of 74%.
Top challenge: For the fourth consecutive quarter, trade uncertainties remained the top business worry among survey respondents, coming in at 73.1%.
Other key findings: Other salient takeaways from this quarter’s survey include the following:
- More than 80.0% of manufacturers have paid tariffs on imported inputs since the start of 2025.
- Some 58.6% of respondents have paid Section 232 tariffs, 52.1% have paid reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and 50.0% have paid Section 301 tariffs on China.
- More than 72.0% of respondents said they need skilled production workers (such as technicians, welders and machinists).
- The majority of respondents (82.3%) indicated it is important to their companies for Congress to pass legislation maintaining robust, multiyear infrastructure investment to support manufacturing.
Additional top concerns: Health care costs became manufacturers’ second-biggest business concern in the Q4 survey, with 70.2% citing it and 94.4% saying they expect higher health insurance premiums in 2026, with those costs anticipated to increase on average by 11%.
- In third place was a weaker domestic economy and sales to U.S. customers, with 60.1% citing those issues.
The NAM’s take: “In line with the improvement in the outlook, companies expect most indices to improve marginally over the next 12 months,” said NAM Chief Economist Victoria Bloom, adding that respondents predict a rise in sales and capital investments.