Policy and Legal

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Manufacturers released its Q1 2025 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, revealing growing concerns over trade uncertainties and increased raw material costs. Trade uncertainties surged to the top of manufacturers’ challenges, cited by 76.2% of respondents, jumping 20 percentage points from Q4 2024 and 40 percentage points from Q3 of last year. Increased raw material costs came in second, cited by 62.3% of respondents.

Trade-related challenges resulted in a small drop in manufacturers’ optimism: in the Q1 survey, 69.7% of survey respondents felt positive about their company’s outlook, down slightly from 70.9% in Q4 2024.

The survey underscores the immediate need for President Trump and Congress to implement a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that includes making President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms permanent and more competitive. If Congress fails to act now on extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, 69.35% of survey respondents said they would delay purchasing capital equipment, while 45.23% would hold off on hiring, 44.72% would stall expansion of operations, 41.71% would limit R&D investments and 40.20% would curb increases in employee wages or benefits.

“The pressure of increased costs, trade instability and sluggish demand is dampening the sector’s momentum, making it more difficult for manufacturers to plan, invest and hire,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “We need greater predictability with a phase-in period for manufacturers to adjust to new trade realities, while also establishing clear exemptions for critical inputs—enabling reciprocity in manufacturing trade.

“Congress and the Trump administration must take decisive action to support manufacturers by providing increased certainty and clarity while implementing measures to ease the burden of rising costs. Our industry is counting on President Trump to make manufacturing in the United States greater than ever before, which is why we are calling for a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that includes a commonsense trade policy in addition to making President Trump’s 2017 tax reforms permanent and more competitive, securing regulatory certainty, expediting permitting reform to unleash American energy dominance and key manufacturing projects and increasing the talent pool.”

Key survey findings:

• Manufacturers expect raw material prices and other input costs to rise 5.5% over the next year. This marks the highest anticipated rate of increase since Q2 2022, when inflation hovered between 8% and 9%.
• Manufacturers expect prices on their company’s product line to increase 3.6% over the next 12 months, up from 2.3% in Q4 and the highest level since Q3 2022 when inflation was still more than 8%.
• Manufacturers expect export sales to increase just 0.1% over the next 12 months, the lowest level since Q2 2020—the height of the COVID-19 pandemic—highlighting challenges in global trade and demand.

The NAM releases these results to the public each quarter. Further information on the survey is available here.

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.93 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.