Policy and Legal

Manufacturers have one last opportunity to express their opinions to the new administration and Congress before they take office: the NAM’s Q4 2024 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, which is open until Dec. 4.

“The Outlook Survey is the NAM’s principal means of finding out what manufacturers are experiencing and thinking, and one of the industry’s most potent advocacy tools,” the NAM’s new chief economist, Victoria Bloom, said. Bloom walked us through the survey’s impressive history of influencing policy debates and its particular importance today. 

What it is: The NAM has run its Outlook Survey every quarter for more than 25 years, capturing manufacturers’ opinions on enormous policy shifts and seismic changes in the economy, including the 2017 tax reform and the COVID-19 shutdowns, Bloom said.

• All manufacturers in the NAM’s membership are eligible to take it, making it an unparalleled sampling of industry opinion. Respondents include companies of all sizes and sectors, located across the entire United States.
• The survey is in the field for about two and a half weeks and takes only minutes to complete—you can even do it on your phone. 

Why it matters: Not only will the current survey be the last word from manufacturers before the White House and Congress change hands, but it will help provide clarity on where manufacturers stand in this period of economic uncertainty. It’s crucial for manufacturers to speak up about what they are seeing, Bloom emphasized.

• “We’ve had a lot of muddied economic data lately due to worker strikes and hurricanes, as reflected in the monthly jobs report and industrial production report,” she said. “This has made it more difficult to determine how the industry is actually doing, which is why we need manufacturers to tell us directly.”

Who’s the audience: The NAM’s survey is read—and publicized—by the highest levels of the administration and Congress. To take one example, it had a profound impact during the years following tax reform:

• President Trump cited the Outlook Survey in a 2019 address at the Lima Army Tank Plant, noting manufacturers’ record levels of optimism following the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
• John Thune (R-SD), the incoming Senate majority leader, cited the survey in a 2018 press release, also on the benefits of tax reform.
• Then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) cited the survey on the Senate floor in 2018.

What’s in it: The survey asks a few standard questions, including the big one: are manufacturers feeling positive or negative about their company’s outlook?

• The survey also asks manufacturers about the biggest challenges they’re facing. In the Q3 2024 survey, the top concerns included a weaker domestic economy, followed by rising health care costs.
• These standard questions are often followed by questions that pertain to specific policy developments, like the looming expiration of critical tax provisions in 2025, or manufacturers’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The data: The survey’s questions often reveal facts about manufacturers that appear nowhere else.

• For example, Bloom told us, in Q3 2024, respondents as a whole felt most concerned by the weakening state of the economy. However, small and medium-sized manufacturers, when separated out, cited rising health care costs as their top concern.
• “The survey told us rising health care costs have been a more significant challenge for SMMs, which is an important data point for the NAM’s advocacy work,” Bloom said.
• During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, the survey was a particularly valuable tool, she added. Amid the chaos of the lockdowns, the NAM was able to survey its members to determine what share of manufacturers were continuing operations in whole, in part or not at all.

The bottom line: “As we will soon have a new administration and a new Congress, manufacturers must speak up—and keep speaking up—about their challenges and concerns,” Bloom concluded.

• “Future Outlook Surveys will cover new developments as they arise, and of course manufacturers will be faced with new challenges and policy threats. If they haven’t already, NAM members should make survey-taking a habit, for the health of our industry.”