Input Stories

Manufacturing activity continued to decline in the Tenth District in June, with the month-over-month composite index up one point to -2. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity improved four points to 9. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month decrease in activity was due primarily to declines in metal and transportation equipment manufacturing, while nonmetallic mineral and petroleum product manufacturing increased. While production, shipments and supplier delivery times increased in June, new orders, employment and backlog of orders declined.

Production jumped 15 points to 5, while new orders inched up from -9 to -2. New export orders increased from -21 to -10 over the month. Employment slumped in June, falling from 3 to -8, while the average employee workweek became less negative, increasing from -9 to -5. The backlog of orders remained negative but recovered 12 points to -11. Both prices received and prices for raw materials increased month-over-month, with raw material prices jumping 17 points to 51 and prices received rising 4 points to 21. Over the year, prices received slipped 1 point to 62, while prices for raw materials rose from 67 to 75.

In June, survey respondents were asked about uncertainty and international trade. Nearly a third of respondents (32%) said they have paused capital investments due to uncertainty. In terms of employment, a quarter have reduced job postings and 21% have reduced headcounts. Furthermore, 11% have canceled ongoing capital investment, and 13% reported taking other measures. On the other hand, 54% of respondents have not made any changes in response to uncertainty, but that may be due to 52% of the firms surveyed reporting that they engage in international trade, either through importing inputs or exporting goods.