Economic Data and Growth

Manufacturing activity stayed the same in the Tenth District in January, with the month-over-month composite index remaining unchanged at 0 from December. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity stayed positive but declined 3 points to 7. The month-over-month activity remaining constant was due to an increase in durable manufacturing offsetting a decline in nondurable manufacturing. At the same time, the new orders index inched up, while shipments turned negative in January. New orders for exports decreased at a slightly faster pace than the prior month. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico.

The production index remained negative but inched up from -3 to -2, while the new orders index moved up from -2 to 0, indicating new orders were constant over the month after declining for two consecutive months. The employment index rose in January from -4 to 0, while the average employee workweek index ticked up from 3 to 4. The backlog of orders fell further into negative territory, dropping from -5 to -11. The pace of growth for prices received weakened, while growth for prices paid accelerated over the month, with raw materials prices increasing 3 points to 44, and prices received falling from 24 to 19. Over the year, the indexes for prices received and paid both decreased, moving down from 54 and 67, respectively.

In January, survey respondents were asked special questions about changes in labor demand and factors negatively affecting business. Over half of the firms (57%) reported little to no changes in labor demand over the past year, while 14% saw reduced labor demand and 17% experienced increased demand. When asked about business concerns, more than one-third (39%) noted concerns about domestic demand for goods and services, 24% were concerned about geopolitical uncertainty and 21% cited worries about worker availability.