Trade

President Trump imposed a Section 232 tariff of 50% on semifinished copper and certain derivatives by presidential proclamation yesterday.

The reasoning: The proclamation cites Commerce Department findings that foreign competitors have used “state subsidies and overproduction” to outcompete domestic U.S. suppliers and that dependence on foreign sources has created “strategic vulnerabilities and jeopardizes the U.S. defense industrial base.”

What’s in scope: This proclamation does not list specific products, but a White House fact sheet describes the scope broadly as:

• Semifinished copper products like copper pipes, wires and sheets; and
• Copper-intensive derivative products like pipe fittings, cables and electrical components.

What’s not in scope: According to the White House fact sheet, copper input materials such as copper ores, concentrates, mattes, cathodes and anodes and copper scrap are not subject to 232 “or reciprocal tariffs.” Customs and Border Protection guidance will be critical to understanding this aspect of the proclamation.

Timing: The tariff goes into effect on Friday, Aug. 1.

Going forward: The proclamation directs the Commerce Secretary to establish a process within 90 days to consider adding derivative copper products to the scope of the tariff, similar to the process established for aluminum and steel.

• The Department of Commerce will also monitor imports of copper and derivatives going forward and will “from time to time” inform the president of further necessary action.

Domestic use: This proclamation invokes the Domestic Production Act to authorize the Commerce Secretary to require a certain percentage of U.S.-produced inputs be sold in the U.S. According to the fact sheet, this includes requirements that:

• 25% of high-quality copper scrap produced in the U.S. be sold in the U.S. to “improve access to this important feedstock for domestic fabricators and secondary refiners”; and
• 25% of copper input materials produced in the U.S. be sold in the U.S. by 2027, increasing to 30% in 2028 and 40% in 2029.

Brazil: Meanwhile, the president also released an executive order yesterday imposing an increased International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariff on imports from Brazil, citing concerns about violations of free expression rights and human rights in that country, as well as the “political persecution” of Brazil’s former president.

50%: The July 30 EO imposes an additional 40% tariff to be stacked with the 10% IEEPA “reciprocal” tariff issued on April 2, bringing the IEEPA tariff to 50%.

• This adjustment will go into effect seven days after the EO (not including the day itself).

Exemptions and adjustments: The EO includes a list of products not subject to this increase and also states that if a Section 232 tariff applies to the goods, the IEEPA tariff will not apply.

Going forward: As previewed in the president’s letter, the EO states that should Brazil retaliate, the U.S. tariff will be increased by the same amount.

• This EO directs the Secretary of State to monitor and recommend any additional actions under IEEPA.

The U.S. and European Union have announced a trade deal, but no joint statement or official order has been released, though the White House issued a broad fact sheet. The president must issue an executive order or other legal document amending his April 2 EO that established “reciprocal” tariff rates to make the terms of the new trade deal official.

15% tariff: President Trump said that U.S. goods would gain access to European markets without tariffs, but the specific terms of that arrangement are not yet known.

• Meanwhile, the EU agreed to a 15% tariff by the U.S. on its products, which it regards as a “clear ceiling.”
• The 15% tariff on EU goods will apply “across most sectors, including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals,” according to a statement issued by EU President Ursula von der Leyen.
• President Trump and EU leaders also made differing statements about metals, with the EU statement saying that metal “tariffs will be cut. A quota system will be put in place.” President Trump, however, said the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum would remain.

Zero-for-zero: According to the EU statement, the U.S. and EU agreed on zero-for-zero tariffs on many strategic products, including all aircraft and component parts, certain chemicals, certain generics, semiconductor equipment, certain agricultural products, natural resources and critical raw materials.

• This agreement, if verified, would reflect in part the NAM’s longstanding advocacy of zero-for-zero tariffs on industrial trade.
• The EU has also said it is working to get other products added to this list.

EU investments in the U.S.: President Trump suggested the EU would purchase $750 billion in U.S. liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear fuels; buy U.S. military equipment; and increase its foreign direct investment into the United States by $600 billion. The EU statement references energy and U.S. AI chips.

Stay tuned: These statements represent an uncertain sketch of an eventual deal, and the NAM will report on the official terms of the agreement once they become available.

• Meanwhile, President Trump indicated in a press conference that other countries might soon receive tariff letters outlining new rates, though these too require EOs to become official policy.

The Trump administration has released the text of a framework agreement with Indonesia yesterday, also announcing a deal with Japan that has not been made public yet.

Framework agreement with Indonesia: The document released yesterday is a framework for negotiating an “Agreement on Reciprocal Trade.” It includes some commitments but also lays the groundwork for more negotiations.

U.S. exports to Indonesia: Indonesia will “eliminate tariff barriers” on approximately 99% of U.S. industrial and agricultural exports.

• For context, U.S. manufacturing exports to Indonesia in 2024 were $6.5 billion of the $10.2 billion total. Manufacturing imports from Indonesia in 2024 were $25.4 billion of the $28 billion total.

U.S. imports from Indonesia: This agreement would reduce the U.S. tariff on imports from Indonesia to 19% from the 32% rate imposed by the Trump administration on April 2.

• Significantly, the agreement suggests the U.S. “may identify certain commodities not naturally available or domestically produced for further reduction in the reciprocal tariff rate.”
• This type of approach is exactly what the NAM has pushed for in its proposed U.S. Manufacturing Investment Accelerator Program, and it will continue advocating for such policies in subsequent trade agreements.

Critical minerals: Indonesia, which had previously banned exports of nickel, will also remove restrictions on exports to the U.S. of industrial commodities, including critical minerals.

Other key components: The agreement also achieves commitments by Indonesia on other key trade issues.

• Nontariff barriers: Indonesia will accept U.S. standards and certifications for vehicles, medical devices and pharmaceuticals, exempt certain U.S. products from local content requirements and also allow the import of U.S.-remanufactured goods.
• Digital trade: The country will also now support the World Trade Organization’s e-commerce moratorium on tariffs on electronic transmissions—something it had opposed previously and that is essential to manufacturers seeking to move information across borders.
• Steel: Indonesia pledged to join the Global Forum on Steel Excess Capacity, an approach the NAM supports to address unfair subsidization and excess production, particularly by China, that distort global markets.
• China: Indonesia will work with the U.S. to address the unfair practices of other countries and to cooperate on export controls, investment security and combatting duty evasion.
• Purchases: Indonesia has agreed to purchase U.S. aircraft, agricultural products and energy products.

More to come: President Trump has previewed agreements with the Philippines and Vietnam on social media, while Japanese officials have announced an agreement on tariffs at a press briefing. The NAM will report on the official details once they are available.

The bigger picture: Here are some other trade developments that the NAM is tracking:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet his Chinese counterpart in the coming days.
• President Trump will travel to Scotland for discussions on “finalizing” details in the U.K. deal.
• Talks with the EU, Canada and Mexico continue.
• And lastly, the president has signaled he may send letters setting a flat rate of 10–15% tariffs to some 150 countries.

There’s a lot for manufacturers in the U.S. to celebrate right now, starting with the historic passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act with pro-growth tax provisions—but they are still seeking more policy fixes to help them grow and compete, the NAM said last week at the 14th annual John Hazen White Manufacturing Forum at The Brookings Institution.

Starting with tax policy: “When we think about the president’s manufacturing strategy, his manufacturing policies, you really have to start with tax policy,” NAM Managing Vice President of Policy Charles Crain said about manufacturing under the Trump administration.

• “We know from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act the impact that pro-growth tax policy [had] on manufacturing in 2018 and 2019. Coming out of the TCJA, we saw record capital investments in the manufacturing industry. We saw record job increases. We saw record wage increases.”
• The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law on the Fourth of July, “prevents … tax increases, and it really should support manufacturers’ efforts to drive manufacturing growth,” Crain continued, adding that the OBBBA included incentives for capital equipment purchases, research and development, factory building and more.
• The legislation is “a big win” for manufacturing and “a real credit to the president,” he said.

Reaching a shared goal: Even if the U.S. were “operating at full capacity,” manufacturing in the country would still require imports from other nations—making a commonsense trade policy a necessity, Crain said.

• In practice, manufacturing in the U.S. is only making about 67% of inputs required for finished goods, Crain said.
• “So we really need to solve for that 30-ish percent of outstanding inputs that we need to make things here. … Manufacturers need inputs to make things, and we need export markets to sell things. And so we think that a commonsense trade policy can allow for the president to achieve [the administration’s] trade policy goals without preventing manufacturers from investing here in America, which is a goal we all share.”

Giving manufacturers certainty: In the latest quarterly NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey, just 55% of manufacturers—the lowest reading since the global pandemic in 2020—reported feeling positive about their companies’ outlook, Crain said. The top reason for the optimism drop? Trade uncertainty, something that a comprehensive U.S. trade policy can help remedy.

• Not knowing what to expect next when it comes to trade “makes it more difficult to make long-term investment decisions that we know drive manufacturing growth,” according to Crain.
• While tax uncertainty has now “been taken off the table” thanks to the passage of the OBBBA, “we’re still facing additional barriers to those long-term decisions that we need to create jobs here in America.”
• It’s also critical to manufacturing in the U.S. that the current corporate tax rate be maintained, Crain said. “[I]f we have a 35% corporate rate as opposed to the current 21[%], it’s going to be really difficult to onshore domestic manufacturing.”

Fewer regulations needed: Manufacturing in the U.S. also needs more balanced regulations—and fortunately, that’s something the administration began doing on day one.

• “[M]anufacturers, in our experience, have been very encouraged to see the administration taking a second look at some of the rules that were finalized in recent years … finding ways to maintain reliable rules of the road, but [also] to make those rules less costly.”

Open jobs in manufacturing: Manufacturers also remain committed to filling the 400,000 open manufacturing jobs in the U.S., Crain said, addressing an audience question.

• Manufacturers “are really focused on providing competitive benefits, having flexible work schedules, having onsite child care” as well as “partnering with local community colleges to implement training programs [and] partnering with the military to bring folks coming out of active duty into manufacturing shop floors.”

The takeaways: The OBBBA “delivers for manufacturers in America by making pro-growth tax provisions permanent,” Crain wrote on X following the event.

• But “[t]o ensure we can continue to grow manufacturing in America, policymakers must pursue a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that will provide manufacturers the tools, and the certainty, needed to make long-term investments,” he wrote in a second post.

President Trump issued more tariff letters late last week, warning major U.S. trading partners of the tariffs that will go into effect if negotiations do not lead to agreements by Aug. 1. Tariffs on Canadian imports will be assessed at 35%, while Mexican and European Union imports will see new tariffs of 30%.

Canada: The letter to Canada accuses the country of failing to stop the flow of fentanyl drugs into the U.S., while also citing tariff and nontariff trade barriers, including dairy policies.

• Canada is subject to an International Emergency Economic Powers Act fentanyl tariff rate of 25%. According to an April 2 executive order, if IEEPA fentanyl tariffs are withdrawn, a 12.5% IEEPA “reciprocal” tariff rate would replace them.
• USMCA-compliant goods are exempt from the existing Canada tariffs. The July 10 letter does not specify whether goods that qualify for an exception under the USMCA will continue to be exempt. It also does not say whether energy and energy resources from Canada will still be subject to the lower 10% tariff.
• The letter also warns that goods that are transshipped will be subject to an unspecified, higher tariff, and that an additional 35% tariff will be imposed should Canada retaliate.

Mexico: The letter to Mexico cites the country’s “failure to stop the Cartels,” while also mentioning trade barriers.

• Mexico is subject to the same arrangement as Canada under the April 2 executive order—IEEPA fentanyl tariffs of 25%, which if withdrawn would be replaced by a 12.5% “reciprocal” tariff.
• The letter to Mexico is likewise unclear about the USMCA exceptions and contains similar warnings about transshipment penalties and an additional 30% tariff in the case of retaliation.

EU: The European Commission also received a letter, which threatens the EU with a 30% tariff, a number “far less than what is needed to eliminate the trade deficit.” The letter also says that the U.S. expects “complete, open market access.”

• EU retaliatory tariffs were set to take effect this week but have been suspended pending negotiations.

The response: In a  post on X, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said, “We are committed to continuing to work with the United States to save lives and protect communities in both our countries. … We are strengthening our trading partnerships throughout the world.”

• In a statement, EU Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen said the EU is “working towards an agreement by August 1,” adding that the EU “will take all necessary steps … including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”

President Trump signed more individual country letters this week, following his extension to Aug. 1 of the pause on “reciprocal” tariffs over 10%.

A quick recap: The president had delayed tariffs on individual countries, which had been announced on April 2, until July 9. He imposed a flat 10% tariff until then on all countries except Mexico, Canada and China.

• This week, he extended that pause until Aug. 1. If new trade deals are not reached by then, individual country rates will go into effect.

More letters: The president had issued letters on July 7, assigning tariff rates to imports from more than a dozen countries and followed those up with more letters to other countries on July 9. The second round included Libya, Iraq, Algeria, Moldova, Brunei and the Philippines.

• The letters also warned that if countries impose retaliatory tariffs, U.S. levies will rise as well. The increases cited in the letters range from 25% to 50%.
• You can find a full chart here of the countries that have received letters, as well as those that were included in the April 2 order but have not yet received letters.

Targeting Brazil: The U.S. ran a trade surplus with Brazil in 2024, which means it was not included in President Trump’s imposition of tariffs in April.

• Decrying the legal proceedings against former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro along with social media censorship policies (as well as trade barriers), President Trump announced that the U.S. is imposing a 50% additional tariff on Brazil, which will rise another 50% should Brazil retaliate.
• President Trump also ordered the United States Trade Representative to open a Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s “attacks on the digital trade activities of American companies” and other unfair trade practices, which could result in other tariffs.

Section 232: In a Truth Social post, the president mentioned plans for Section 232 tariffs on copper.

• The administration will have to issue a proclamation and provide documents defining the scope of the tariffs, including which products are subject to them, so details are yet to come.

The NAM is monitoring the administration’s actions on Section 232 closely and has been detailing manufacturers’ interests and concerns for the administration. You can read about its advocacy here.

Operators of U.S. ports say that the Trump administration’s proposed tariffs on port equipment would add tens of millions of dollars in costs to much-needed upgrades (The Wall Street Journal, subscription).

The background: “The administration is proposing tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese-made cranes and other cargo-handling equipment as part of broader efforts to counter China’s dominance of the maritime industry.”

• “Shipping industry officials say the fees would be stacked on top of 25% tariffs on Chinese-made cranes introduced under the Biden administration, and in addition to China duties being considered by Trump’s trade team.”

Chinese dominance: One Chinese company, Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries, is the maker of nearly 80% of ship-to-shore cranes used in the U.S., and Chinese firms produce a total of 70% of all such cranes worldwide, according to U.S. government data.

• Chinese cranes cost about $15 million on average—several million dollars less than competitors’ cheapest offerings, according to shipping industry leaders.
• Meanwhile, there are no domestic U.S. producers of these cranes, nor can smaller manufacturers in other countries provide enough cranes to equip U.S. ports.

The risks: “Administration officials worry China’s control of critical infrastructure is an economic and a national security threat. They also allege some Chinese-made cranes have been fitted with communications equipment that could be used for espionage.”

The ask: Since a typical order for a ship-to-shore crane takes two years to fulfill, “port operators are asking the administration to provide tariff exemptions for cranes ordered before the end of 2024.”

• “They are also asking the [U.S. Trade Representative’s] office to delay imposing levies on new crane orders for three years to give time for crane manufacturing to develop in the U.S., or for manufacturers in allied countries to expand production.”

NAM in action: The NAM has been in close contact with the USTR, advocating for policies that strengthen American shipbuilding instead of imposing burdensome new fees.

• In March, the NAM weighed in on the Trump administration’s plan to impose fees on Chinese ships entering U.S. ports, saying, “The NAM encourages the administration to focus on revitalizing American shipbuilding—not burdening manufacturers in the U.S. through new port fees that will reduce the availability of the necessary cargo capacity at U.S. ports, increase pressure on domestic infrastructure and raise costs that may render American exports less competitive around the world.”

Earlier this week, the NAM followed up with the USTR to stress the burden that these port fees would cause, citing especially the difficulty they would pose for vehicle and liquefied natural gas exports. “We continue to have concerns regarding the overall impact to manufacturers in the U.S. of proposed and impending port fees,” said NAM Vice President of International Policy Andrea Durkin.

The Trump administration has approved a $10 billion infrastructure project that will speed up freight crossings over the U.S.–Mexico border—via an elevated transit system for self-driving shuttles (The Wall Street Journal, subscription).

What’s going on: Austin, Texas–based Green Corridors received a presidential permit to construct a 165-mile “guideway” connecting Laredo, Texas, and Monterrey, Mexico, using autonomous diesel-electric hybrid shuttles to carry cargo.

• The system would operate like a monorail, with truck drivers dropping off 53-foot trailers at terminals before shuttles transport them across the border.
• The company plans to build four terminals of about 100 acres each, with two on each side of the border.

Why it matters: Trade volume at the Port of Laredo has surged 28% since 2019, with more than 3 million truck crossings last year.

• Current wait times average 45 minutes on weekday afternoons at existing bridges, creating supply chain bottlenecks for imports of auto parts, vehicles, appliances and electronics.

How it will work: The guideway would run alongside existing truck and rail operations, reducing congestion at this busy crossing.

• Green Corridors will charge toll fees for companies using the service, focusing on trips under 200 miles rather than competing with long-haul railroads.

What’s next: Green Corridors still needs Mexican government permits and must negotiate with landowners before construction can begin.

• The company expects to complete the project and enter testing by 2031, with the presidential permit expiring in five years if construction has not started by then.

NAM advocacy: As the U.S., Canada and Mexico prepare to discuss the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, the NAM remains one of the staunchest proponents of U.S. trade with the countries on its borders, having played an instrumental role in securing the USMCA in the first place.”

• The stakes remain high, as International Trade Administration data show: one-third of U.S. imported manufacturing inputs originate in Canada and Mexico.

President Trump has extended the 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs over 10% until Aug. 1 and issued revised reciprocal tariff rates for several countries, set to take effect if no agreements are reached by then.

The extension: President Trump issued an executive order effectively extending the baseline additional 10% “reciprocal” tariff on all countries (except Mexico, Canada and China) until Aug. 1.

• No new trade deals have been announced, though the White House has hinted that some may be revealed in the next day or two.
• This pause is an extension of the original pause in the “reciprocal” tariffs that were announced on April 2. The pause has been in place since April 9.

Country-specific rates: The president also announced revised “reciprocal” tariffs for specific countries in the form of letters to his counterparts. These rates are similar to those announced in April, with some slightly lower.

• Courtesy of the NAM’s trade policy experts, here is a link to a chart  comparing the April 2 rates with the July 7 rates and links to where each letter is posted on the president’s Truth Social account.
• These letters also declared that if U.S. trading partners eliminate tariffs and other trade barriers, the U.S. may adjust the rates “upward or downward.”
• However, the letters warn of retaliation if countries raise tariffs in response to these rates.

Other tariffs: The July 7 EO does not modify other International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariff rates applied to Canada, Mexico or China, and does not change any Section 232 tariffs in effect.

Manufacturing accelerator: The NAM has offered its own policy solution for the administration that will jumpstart American manufacturing, the U.S. Manufacturing Investment Accelerator Program .

• This program offers a way to bring in inputs essential to manufacturing in the U.S.—and it rewards manufacturers that expand production, invest in new equipment and create jobs here at home.

From personal heroes to tax reform and tariffs, NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons covered it all in his recent appearance on iHeart Radio’s “CEOs You Should Know.”

From the beginning: In his June 9 interview with show host Mike Howard, Timmons told listeners about his journey from a childhood in the mill town of Chillicothe, Ohio, to his current role, running the largest manufacturing trade association in the U.S.

• As both the only child and the only grandchild in his family, Timmons was inspired professionally and personally by his parents and grandparents.
• Timmons’ grandfather “stood in line for six months during the Great Depression trying to get a job in manufacturing because he knew that that would be a way forward for his family,” he said.
• His mother climbed the ranks at the Chillicothe Gazette, eventually becoming president and CEO of the newspaper, and his father owned an appliance store, Timmons Appliance and TV.

Part of the Reagan Revolution: As an undergraduate student at Ohio State University, Timmons decided that college wasn’t for him—and he wanted “to do everything I could to help Ronald Reagan succeed.”

• So, he headed for Washington, D.C., where he ended up on Capitol Hill. His desire to enter politics “was really about [wanting to help shape] policy that enabled people to live their best lives.”
• Timmons ended up becoming the youngest chief of staff in the U.S.—to Virginia Gov. George Allen.

The road to manufacturing: Later, Timmons took over the policy and government relations team at the NAM, where he spent six years shaping the association’s agenda before being named CEO in 2011.

• “[M]anufacturing is not a partisan issue, and [neither is] the success of America,” Timmons continued. The industry “is really infused into the fabric of all we are as Americans. … [M]anufacturing helped us to build the infrastructure system that made us the strongest, most connected economy in the world in the 1950s and ’60s.”

Rocket fuel: From 2018 to 2022, manufacturing “had record investment, we had record hiring, and we had record wage growth over the course of the next three years—because of that rocket fuel, as President Trump called it,” the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.

On tariffs: The manufacturing industry in the U.S. is hoping the administration and its trading partners will make trade deals during the current three-month pause on tariffs.

• “[M]anufacturers … are very hopeful that the administration really is going to be able to settle in their 90-day window all of these potential trade agreements throughout the world,” he said, adding that it would mean that “manufacturers actually can have the certainty they need to again invest higher and increase wages and benefits.”