Immigration

Manufacturers and other businesses on both sides of the U.S.–Mexico border are feeling the pinch from sudden, intermittent port closures and other government measures being taken to mitigate the ongoing migrant crisis, the NAM and two allied groups told President Biden and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador this week.

What’s going on: Last December, U.S. Customs and Border Protection temporarily shuttered critical rail ports, including San Diego, California, and El Paso and Eagle Pass, Texas, in an effort to stem migration surges, idling nearly 10,000 rail cars on both sides of the border.

• Last month, the Texas Department of Public Safety renewed safety inspections of vehicles between Texas and Mexico, adding hours to cargo trucks’ border wait times (Freight Waves).

Why it’s important: Port closures and increased vehicle inspections “have significantly increased congestion around ports of entry, caused delays to cross-border trade and harmed productive businesses across industries and their employees,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons, Texas Association of Business President and CEO Glenn Hamer and CONCAMIN President Alejandro Malagón.

• The stoppages “risk making critical supply chains between the United States and Mexico less resilient and dependable.”

What should be done: The U.S. and Mexican governments must commit to creating and abiding by predictable, transparent processes for cross-border trade, the groups urged.

• In addition to stopping the port closures for commercial freight and trucking, “our two countries should strive to enhance trading ties as the importance of nearshoring and friendshoring accelerates. Doing so will make our manufacturing, energy and agricultural sectors more competitive globally.”

The U.S. fertility rate is at record lows (The Wall Street Journal, subscription).

What’s going on: “The total fertility rate fell to 1.62 births per woman in 2023, a 2% decline from a year earlier, federal data released Thursday showed. It is the lowest rate recorded since the government began tracking it in the 1930s.”

• The data reflect a continuing trend: American women, across ethnic groups, are delaying or foregoing having children.
• In 2023, the number of U.S. births was the lowest in 44 years.

Why it’s happening: “A confluence of factors are at play. American women are having fewer children, later in life. Women are establishing fulfilling careers and have more access to contraception.”

• As a group, they are also increasingly uncertain about their futures “and spending more of their income on homeownership, student debt and child care.”

The details: From 2022 to 2023, birthrates declined more among younger women.

• “Women in their mid-to-late 30s are having children at similar rates to those in their early to mid-20s. Birthrates for women 35–39 fell to 54.7 births per 1,000 women—closer to the rates for women 20–24, which dropped 4% to 55.4 births per 1,000 women in 2023.”
• Birthrates among women in their 40s stayed the same.

Why it’s important: Fewer U.S. births could reshape the economy and “other facets of American life.”

• However, “[a]n influx of people immigrating to the U.S. could offset the impact of lower birthrates on the U.S. population’s size,” said Brady Hamilton, a co-author of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report that includes the data findings. “Immigration has risen in recent years, easing labor shortages and expanding the population of big metropolitan areas.”

​​​​​​​Read more: For a comprehensive blueprint on U.S. immigration reform, download “A Way Forward,” the NAM’s recommendations to Congress on the subject.
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With President Biden set to deliver the State of the Union address Thursday, manufacturing is likely to be in the spotlight once again. At the NAM, we will be listening closely for our key priorities—those that have been achieved and those still in progress. 

Promises kept: President Biden has been a partner on a range of issues that are key to manufacturers across the United States. We hope he will outline how pro-growth legislation has helped set the stage for manufacturing growth, with industry employment reaching a 15-year high.

• CHIPS Act: The CHIPS and Science Act marked a major push to boost manufacturers’ competitiveness, supporting large and small businesses up and down the supply chain by investing in domestic semiconductor production and funding programs to support the STEM workforce, advanced technology development, excavation of critical minerals, clean energy and more.

• Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill: President Biden secured a bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, a long-sought, major achievement for manufacturers throughout the country, offering transformational upgrades and significant investments in America’s manufacturing capabilities.

• Inflation Reduction Act: Some of the provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act supported manufacturers across the United States, with direct investments and tax credits generating a major increase in manufacturing construction and jobs.

• Ukraine: The Biden administration has been unwavering in its support of Ukraine. The NAM—which in March 2022 passed a unanimous resolution denouncing Russia’s invasion of the country—has kept the pressure on Congress to pass the stalled Ukraine aid bill.

Progress to come: But this progress will be undermined if the Biden administration continues to issue onerous regulations and call for policies that make it harder to innovate, invest and expand in America. The NAM is working hard to push back against items that would harm manufacturers and encourage the president to refrain from pursuing policies that will make us less competitive.

• Taxes: The NAM is pushing back against any new taxes or attempts to increase tax rates on manufacturers, and we are pressing for tax policies that will make it easier to invest in the future—including the “tax trifecta” found in the recently House-passed Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act. The NAM urges the Senate to approve these business tax provisions quickly.

• Protecting intellectual property: Late last year the administration proposed invoking “march-in” rights to seize the patents of any products it deems too costly—if those innovations were developed in any part with federal dollars. This move, which would open the door to similar actions in other sectors of manufacturing, would undermine manufacturers’ IP rights, disincentivize early-stage entrepreneurship and dissuade capital investment, all of which could jeopardize our ability to develop future cures. This is just one example of how actions that undermine manufacturers’ IP can have dangerous unintended consequences.

• Regulations: Burdensome rules—such as the tighter National Ambient Air Quality Standards from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy’s recent freeze of liquefied natural gas export permits—are preventing manufacturers from creating jobs and harming U.S. competitiveness. We need to end the regulatory onslaught and give manufacturers the chance to grow.

• Energy: Manufacturers in America are at the forefront of the planet’s work to reduce emissions and promote sustainable energy. But to be effective, we need to embrace an all-of-the-above energy strategy that uses the fuel we have while developing the tools we need.

• Immigration: Immigration and border security reforms must be a priority for the administration and Congress. Inaction poses significant economic risks—especially at a time when manufacturers have 600,000 open jobs. Manufacturers are leading on bipartisan solutions, like those found in our A Way Forward plan.

The last word: “Our commitment is to work with anyone, and I truly mean anyone, who will put policy—policy that supports people—ahead of politics, personality or process,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “Because here’s what I know: Manufacturers are building an incredible future for our country and our world. And we need partners in the federal government who will work with us to reduce burdens on manufacturers and manufacturing workers, rather than creating barriers to our success.”

Learn more: For more information on the state of manufacturing, check out the 2024 NAM State of Manufacturing Address here.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Manufacturers released its Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey for the first quarter of 2024, which reveals that the expiration of federal tax incentives related to R&D, interest deductibility and expensing for capital investments has already caused nearly 40% of respondents to pull back on hiring and investing due to increased taxes.

“Manufacturers’ concerns in this survey should provide a stark warning to both parties ahead of the State of the Union: If you want to continue America’s manufacturing resurgence, focus on constructive policies to strengthen our industry—reinstating key tax provisions, achieving immigration solutions and advancing permitting reform. But if President Biden wants to put his manufacturing legacy at risk, nothing will do that faster than raising taxes on manufacturers or continuing this regulatory onslaught,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons.

The latest data show that two-thirds (65.5%) of manufacturers said that rules coming from the Biden administration will be costly to implement. Additionally, amid the regulatory onslaught, concern about the overall business climate was elevated and not far from levels last seen at the end of 2016.

“President Biden and Sen. Britt will opine on their parties’ respective priorities, many of which manufacturers share. But actions speak louder than words. Congressional inaction and the stream of senseless regulations from the EPA and elsewhere are creating greater uncertainty for businesses, which hurts manufacturers’ ability to create jobs and raise wages. All of this is undermining manufacturers’ confidence and has the potential to drive investment away from the United States,” added Timmons. “Our commitment is to work with anyone who will put policy—policy that supports people—ahead of politics, personality or process.”

Overall, 68.7% of respondents felt either somewhat or very positive about their company’s outlook, edging up slightly from 66.2% in the fourth quarter. It was the sixth straight reading below the historical average of 74.8%.

Key Survey Findings:

• Nearly 94% of respondents say that it is important for the federal tax code to help reduce manufacturers’ costs for conducting R&D, accessing capital via business loans and investing in capital equipment purchases, with 58% saying that it is very important.
• The majority of respondents (72.4%) said that the length and complexity of the current permitting reform process affects their investment decisions in various degrees, with 38.9% suggesting that they were extremely or moderately impacted. In survey responses throughout 2023, manufacturers stated that reform to the current system could allow them to hire more workers, expand their business and increase wages and benefits.
• More than 65% of manufacturers cited the inability to attract and retain employees as their top primary challenge.
• An unfavorable business climate (58.9%), rising health care and insurance costs (58.2%) and weaker domestic economy and sales for manufactured products (53.2%) are also impacting manufacturing optimism.

You can learn more at the NAM’s online tax action center here.

The NAM releases these results to the public each quarter. Further information on the survey is available here.

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The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.85 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

Washington, D.C. – Following the Senate introduction of the Border Act of 2024, National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement:

“For years, manufacturers have called on Congress to fix our broken immigration system, and the need for a solution at the border has only grown more urgent. This bill is neither perfect nor comprehensive, but it is important to take steps to address immigration reform and border security consistent with our plan, ‘A Way Forward.’

“Manufacturers believe the Senate’s legislation clears some critical tests: Does it make us more secure than we are today by tackling the border crisis? Yes. Does it address our ongoing worker shortage through strengthening the visa program? Yes. And does it protect democracy by supporting our allies overseas? Yes.

“Anytime Congress shows progress on sensible policy, it is a positive development for our country. The bipartisan group of Senate leaders deserves great credit for forging a plan on one of the most complicated issues facing our nation, and we appreciate the leadership’s support for this critical work.

“The NAM will work with both chambers and the administration to enact meaningful change on the critical issues of immigration and border security.”

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The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.85 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection has closed two critical rail ports in Texas in an effort to stem a surge of migration, according to CNBC.

What’s going on: Immigration authorities “announced rail operations would be halted at El Paso and Eagle Pass, Texas, beginning Monday in light of the surge of migrants crossing the border.”

• Officials said this temporary suspension of operations will enable the government to redirect personnel to assist Border Patrol with taking migrants into custody.
• “Collectively both railroads operate 24 trains daily at these crossings.”

Why it’s important: More than $200 million in goods, wages and transportation are lost each day the El Paso and Eagle Pass rail lines remain shuttered, according to Union Pacific.

• The closures are affecting international commerce, with mounting impacts on the agricultural, food, automotive, consumer goods and industrial commodity sectors, among others.
• A total of nearly 10,000 rail cars are being held on both sides of the U.S.–Mexico border, according to Union Pacific.
• “According to Bureau of Transportation Statistics data, El Paso and Eagle Pass accounted for $33.95 billion, or 35.8%, of all cross-border rail traffic from November 2022 – October 2023,” CNBC reports.

The backdrop: The developments come the same week Texas Gov. Greg Abbott “signed into law a measure giving state and local police authority to arrest and deport migrants caught crossing the border illegally,” according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What we’re doing: The NAM is in communication with the White House, U.S. Customs and Border Protection and key Senate and House members on the issue, advocating for an immediate solution to the reopening of the rail ports.

• “Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, and enabling trade between the two countries is critical for North American economic competitiveness,” said NAM Director of Trade Facilitation Policy Ali Aafedt. “The NAM will continue to advocate for solutions that uphold our laws while also facilitating legitimate trade.”

The Biden administration announced broad updates to restrictions on U.S. exports of advanced computing and semiconductor-making equipment to China, according to Reuters (subscription).

What’s going on: “The measures are designed to prevent China from acquiring the cutting-edge chips needed to develop AI technologies such as large language models, which power applications such as ChatGPT but that U.S. officials say also have military uses that present a national security threat.”

• The updated interim final rules announced on Oct. 17 will go into effect Nov. 17 and will “reinforce the October 7, 2022, controls to restrict [China]’s ability to both purchase and manufacture certain high-end chips critical for military advantage,” according to a press release from the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security.

Why it matters: “These controls were strategically crafted to address, among other concerns, [China]’s efforts to obtain semiconductor manufacturing equipment essential to producing advanced integrated circuits needed for the next generation of advanced weapon systems” and other technologies that “present U.S. national security concerns,” according to the BIS.

• In an effort to control a wider range of chips, Tuesday’s rules will focus on computing power only and will require companies to notify the U.S. government when they sell chips that come in just under restriction limits.

“Chiplets”: The rules also seek to address “chiplets,” in which small portions of a chip are spliced to make a full chip.

• “Analysts had expressed concern that Chinese firms could use such technology to acquire chiplets that stayed within the legal limits but that could later be assembled in secret into a larger chip that would break the rules,” according to Reuters.

​​​​​​​ The last word: “By imposing stringent license requirements, we ensure that those seeking to obtain powerful advanced chips and chip manufacturing equipment will not use these technologies to undermine U.S. national security,” said Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Export Administration Thea D. Rozman Kendler.
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The number of new homes being built “showed a substantial rebound” in September, while the number of permits to build declined, according to Markets Insider.

What’s going on: “The Commerce Department said housing starts spiked by 7.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.358 million in September after plunging by 12.5 percent to a revised rate of 1.269 million in August.”

• At the same time, permits—an indicator of future demand for housing—dropped by 4.4% to an annual rate of 1.475 million, following a surge in August.

Less than predicted: Economists had predicted that September housing starts would spike to a rate of 1.380 million from the previous month.

Why it’s important: Mortgage rates have risen to record highs recently, pushed by the Federal Reserve’s still-elevated interest rate target.

• Higher rates have led to a decline in home sales and prices.

The Justice Department has reached an agreement with the American Civil Liberties Union that would give benefits to thousands of migrant families separated at the border under the previous administration’s policies, according to ABC News.

What’s going on: “Under the proposed agreement, the Justice Department says, new standards would be established to limit migrant family separations in the future. The settlement would prohibit separations unless there are concerns regarding the wellness of the migrant child, national security issues, medical emergencies or in the case of criminal warrants.”

• The deal—on which a federal judge must still sign off—would also cover any medical costs incurred because of the separations.
• If approved, it would stay in effect for six years. 

Why it’s important: “[U]nder the settlement, more than 3,900 children and their families would be eligible for temporary relief from future deportation for up to three years, with a chance to renew. Members of those families would also be granted work authorizations.”

• More than 75% of the originally identified families that were separated have either been reunited or given the information they need to reunite, according to a Biden administration official.
• “The agreement further expands the number of families that will be eligible for humanitarian parole and reunification, meaning that the ACLU and other organizations will be receiving information on separated families that was previously unknown,” according to ABC News.

Previous policy: A policy in place for four months in 2018 “mandated prosecutions for all suspected illegal border crossings, which led to parents being deported while their children stayed in U.S. custody or were placed in foster care.”

The last word: “The NAM has long called for policy that explicitly prohibits the separation of minor children from their parents, which is what we lay out in ‘A Way Forward,’ our immigration-policy document,” said NAM Director of Domestic Policy Julia Bogue.

Life expectancy in the U.S. started falling even before the global pandemic—and it’s continuing to decline, according to The Washington Post (subscription).

What’s going on: According to a yearlong investigation by the Post, “[a]fter decades of progress, life expectancy—long regarded as a singular benchmark of a nation’s success—peaked in 2014 [in the U.S.] at 78.9 years, then drifted downward even before the coronavirus pandemic. Among wealthy nations, the United States in recent decades went from the middle of the pack to being an outlier. And it continues to fall further and further behind.”

• While the opioid crisis and gun violence are contributing to the rising death toll, heart disease and cancer have remained the leading cause of death among people aged 35 to 64.
• Meanwhile, diabetes and liver disease are becoming more common killers.

A worrisome increase: “In a quarter of the nation’s counties, mostly in the South and Midwest, working-age people are dying at a higher rate than 40 years ago, The Post found.”

• The trend is exacerbated by economic divisions. In the early 1980s, the nation’s poorest people were 9% more likely to die than their wealthier counterparts. Today, they are 61% more likely to die.

What we can do: “Medical science could help turn things around. Diabetes patients are benefiting from new drugs, called GLP-1 agonists . . . that provide improved blood-sugar control and can lead to a sharp reduction in weight. But insurance companies, slow to see obesity as a disease, often decline to pay for the drugs for people who do not have diabetes.”

• The FDA has approved several such drugs so far, including Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro.