Economic Data and Growth

Producer prices dropped more than expected in May, and the annual producer-inflation increase was the smallest in almost two-and-a-half years, Reuters (subscription) reports.

What’s going on: “In the 12 months through May, the [Department of Labor’s Producer Price Index] climbed 1.1%. That was the smallest year-on-year rise since December 2020 and followed a 2.3% increase in April. The annual PPI rate is moderating as last year’s surge drops out of the calculation.”

• Producer prices for final demand goods fell 1.6% in May, owing largely to falling energy costs, after increasing an unrevised 0.2% in April.
• Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted the PPI would dip 0.1% from April and rise 1.5% year-on-year.

The backdrop: The report comes a day after the Labor Department reported the smallest year-on-year increase in U.S. consumer prices in more than two years.

Why it’s important: Federal Reserve “officials are expected to keep rates unchanged at the end of their two-day meeting, for the first time since March 2022 when the U.S. central bank embarked on its fastest monetary policy tightening campaign in more than 40 years. … [The central bank] was seen leaving the door open to further rate increases given the economy’s resilience, particularly the labor market.”

The yearly rate of inflation slowed in May to less than half of what it was at its peak last year, but it’s still far higher than the Federal Reserve’s goal, according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What’s going on: Consumer prices increased 4% in May from a year earlier, marking the 11th straight month of slowdowns.

• On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1% in May, following a 0.4% increase in April.
• Core consumer prices—which exclude food and energy and are considered a better predictor of future inflation—rose 5.3% year-over-year in May, owing partly to increasing rent costs.

The good: “The U.S. economy has maintained momentum this year, staving off predictions of recession. The job market remains robust, and consumers have boosted their spending, though one measure shows economic output is falling. A possible credit crunch following the March collapse of a few regional banks could crimp the economy.”

The not so good: “While inflation has cooled significantly, higher prices for many goods and services are weighing on household spending decisions.”
 
What’s coming: The Fed meets today and tomorrow to determine its next steps for interest rates, which it has raised aggressively in the past year—though it probably will not raise them again this week, according to NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray.

• The Fed “is likely to make no changes to the federal funds rate this week, but with inflation remaining more stubborn than preferred, it could hike short-term rates by 25 basis points at either or both of its July 25–26 and Sept. 19–20 meetings before hitting the pause button on rate changes,” he said.

As banks tighten their lending standards in response to turmoil in the industry, it’s small businesses that are suffering, according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What’s going on: “Some entrepreneurs are finding it more difficult to get a new loan or have had existing credit lines cut. Others report stricter terms, higher borrowing costs, longer waits and tougher questions from their bankers.”

Not your imagination: Close to half of all banks reported having tightened their lending standards in the past three months, according to a Federal Reserve Board survey cited by the Journal.

• “The median interest rate for a variable-rate, small-business term loan was 7.44% in the fourth quarter, the last period for which data is available, up 3.42 percentage points from a year earlier, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Banks have continued to raise rates this year in response to Federal Reserve rate increases,” one source told the newspaper.

​​​​​​​Why it’s important: More stringent loan rules are forcing smaller companies—which tend to borrow from small banks—to put off or cancel expansions and consider bringing in equity investors.

• “‘The alternative to borrowing from your local small bank is another form of financing that is going to be notably more expensive,’ said Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist David Mericle.”
• Some banks are telling small businesses to seek Small Business Administration loans, which “carry a government guarantee” but tend to have higher interest rates than their conventional counterparts.

The last word: “Manufacturers—particularly small and medium-sized firms—are closely following developments related to access to credit, with an eye on the tightening of lending standards that were occurring even before the recent banking crisis,” said NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray.

• “Businesses need credit to be able to expand their operations, and any pullback in that access could have consequences.” ​​​​​​​

Manufacturing shed 2,000 jobs in May, the second month of declines for the industry in the past quarter, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

What’s going on: Manufacturing has added just 10,000 workers year to date, a significant slowdown from the 385,000 and 390,000 employees in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

• However … there were 12,984,000 manufacturing employees in May, just shy of the 12,988,000 in February, the highest number in more than 14 years.

Earnings are up: Average hourly wages of production and nonsupervisory employees in the sector increased 0.6%, from $26.03 in April to $26.19 in May.

• Manufacturing wages saw 4.9% growth in the past 12 months, which is an increase from the 4.7% year-over-year growth in April.

The bigger picture: Overall, U.S. employers added 339,000 new workers in May, an increase from April’s 294,000.

• While the U.S. economy has added 1,570,000 workers through the first five months of 2023—a strong pace—the U.S. unemployment rate increased to 3.7% in May from 3.4% in April.

​​​​​​​​​What’s up: The largest employment gains in manufacturing in May occurred in transportation equipment (up 10,500, including 6,800 for motor vehicles and related parts), electrical equipment, appliances and components (up 2,100), primary metals (up 2,000), chemicals (up 1,700), wood products (up 800) and miscellaneous nondurable goods (up 300).

What’s down: The biggest employment declines in the sector in May occurred in furniture and related products (down 4,000), machinery (down 2,400), fabricated metal products (down 2,300), printing and related support activities (down 2,000) and textile mills (down 2,000), among others.

The NAM says: In May “the labor market remained solid, with wages continuing to increase at healthy paces despite some deceleration from the 40-year highs seen last spring,” said NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray.

U.S. natural gas production is likely to keep growing through 2050, while LNG exports will take off, according to new forecasts from the Energy Information Association.

The gist: Natural gas production is predicted to increase 15%, while LNG exports will skyrocket 152% between last year and 2050, according to the EIA’s “Annual Energy Outlook 2023.”

• “Production growth is largely driven by U.S. LNG exports, which we expect to rise to 10 [trillion cubic feet] by 2050,” an EIA blog post explains.

Where it’s happening: “Natural gas production growth on the Gulf Coast and in the Southwest reflects increased activity in the Haynesville Formation and Permian Basin, which are close to infrastructure connecting natural gas supply to growing LNG export facilities.”

• “New liquefaction facilities in Louisiana became fully operational in 2022, ahead of schedule. In addition, new LNG trains in Texas are scheduled to be online by 2025.”

How they figured it out: This projection comes from the “reference case” in the outlook report for 2023.

• “We use different scenarios, called cases, to understand how varying assumptions affect energy trends. The AEO2023 Reference case, which serves as a baseline, or benchmark, reflects laws and regulations adopted through mid-November 2022, including the Inflation Reduction Act,” according to the EIA blog.

Washington, D.C. – Following the Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision to finalize its costly and unnecessary stock buybacks rule, National Association of Manufacturers Managing Vice President of Tax and Domestic Economic Policy Chris Netram released the following statement:

“The NAM is disappointed that the SEC has chosen to unjustifiably punish manufacturers for returning capital to their shareholders. Manufacturers, investors, retirement plans and the entire economy benefit when companies can efficiently allocate capital via share repurchases. The NAM was successful in convincing the SEC to abandon the most damaging aspect of its initial proposal, but the commission’s attempt to discourage these commonplace, commonsense transactions via an overly complicated, expensive and unworkable disclosure mandate is nevertheless a departure from its mission to enhance capital formation and protect investors.”

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.81 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 55% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

Manufacturing saw robust growth in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to newly revised real GDP estimates from the Commerce Department.

What’s going on: While the overall U.S. economy grew 2.6% at the annual rate in Q4 of last year, real GDP in the manufacturing industry rose by an annualized 5.5%. That’s a sizable increase from the 0.5% seen in the third quarter.

Q4 details: Value-added output in manufacturing increased to $2.895 trillion at the annual rate—an all-time high—from $2.809 trillion in Q3.

• Value-added output hit record levels for both durable goods (up to $1.595 trillion from $1.544 trillion) and nondurable goods (up to $1.299 trillion from $1.265 trillion).
• Manufacturing made up 11.1% of value-added output in the U.S. economy, an increase from Q3’s 10.9% and the most since 2019.
• Manufacturing gross output also rose to a record number, $7.359 trillion from $7.339 trillion at the annual rate.

However … Real value-added output in manufacturing remained lower than the record high in 2021.

• Real value-added output rose to $2.283 trillion from $2.259 trillion at the annual rate, as expressed in 2012 dollars.
• The record high, in 2021, was $2.325 trillion.

The NAM’s take: “Despite numerous challenges, manufacturing continues to prove its resilience, hitting new records for the sector’s contributions to the U.S. economy,” said NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray. “These data also suggest that in real terms, manufacturing output has pulled back recently, which points to inflation having buoyed these numbers.”

Washington, D.C. – National Association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons released the following statement regarding negotiations to raise the debt ceiling:

“It is imperative that Congress and the administration reach a resolution to the debt limit issue as swiftly as possible. Waiting to act until extraordinary measures are exhausted constitutes dangerous brinkmanship that would inject uncertainty into the global economy and increase the risk of a default that would derail manufacturing growth in America, tank markets and put jobs at risk.

“We did not become the greatest nation in the world by shirking our responsibilities. Manufacturers have been working overtime to rebuild our economy, strengthening supply chains, creating jobs at record rates and helping defend against threats from around the world. All of those achievements will be erased if the United States does not find a path forward on the debt limit and fiscal responsibility. Let’s rise above this challenge so that manufacturers can do what we do best: improve lives and livelihoods here and around the world.”

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs more than 12.9 million men and women, contributes $2.81 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 55% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Manufacturers released its Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2022. It illustrates manufacturers’ concerns around a challenging economic environment characterized by inflation, supply chain disruption and the workforce crisis. It also demonstrates the consequences of Congress’s continued inaction on key manufacturing priorities. The NAM conducted the survey from Nov. 29 to Dec. 13, 2022.

“The majority of manufacturers expect a recession this year. Congress failed to act on essential tax reforms, which complicates investment, increases inflationary pressures and could stifle economic growth,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “Much needed permitting reforms and provisions to strengthen our ability to conduct research and development, buy machinery and finance job-creating investments—which we need to promote growth within the sector—were left on the cutting room floor last year. Those reforms, combined with manufacturers’ ongoing efforts to inspire, educate and empower the future workforce, are critical to our competitiveness.”

Workforce shortages ranked as the industry’s number one concern, and there were 779,000 open jobs in manufacturing in the most recent data. This is why the NAM has pressed Congress to address immigration reform—as both a humanitarian solution and to help the sector grow its talent pool—and other solutions outlined in “Competing to Win,” the NAM’s policy roadmap to bolster manufacturers’ competitiveness.

Timmons added, “We’re looking to the new Congress and the administration for leadership and to focus on policies that remove barriers to manufacturing growth in the United States and fend off a severe downturn.”

Key Findings:

• More than 62% of manufacturing leaders believed that the U.S. economy would slip officially into a recession in 2023.
• More than three-quarters of respondents (75.7%) listed attracting and retaining a quality workforce as a primary business challenge, with supply chain challenges (65.7%) and increased raw material costs (60.7%) the next biggest impediments.
• Even in a recession, manufacturers plan to do the following: capital spending on new equipment and technological investments (65.3%), upskilling and training of existing workforce (64.1%), seeing solid demand for their company’s products (63.2%), hiring new employees (55.1%), investing in research and development (52.1%) and spending on new structures and existing facilities (38.6%).
• More than three-quarters of respondents (75.8%) said pushing back against regulatory overreach should be the top priority of the 118th Congress. Other priorities included supporting increased domestic energy production (69.3%), passing comprehensive immigration reform (65.4%), maintaining and permanently extending tax reform (63.0%), controlling rising health care costs (55.5%), addressing the skills gap facing manufacturers (50.5%) and modernizing permitting to reduce red tape (40.0%).

Due to the consistent economic headwinds, manufacturers’ confidence has declined, with 68.9% of respondents having a positive outlook for their company, the lowest since the third quarter of 2020.

Conducted by NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray, the Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey has surveyed the association’s membership of 14,000 manufacturers of all sizes on a quarterly basis for the past 25 years to gain insight into their economic outlook, hiring and investment decisions and business concerns.

The NAM releases these results to the public each quarter. Further information on the survey is available here. Click here for more on “Competing to Win.”

Washington, D.C. – The National Association of Manufacturers released a new economic analysis on the damaging impact of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s attempt to force private companies to disclose financial information publicly.

The SEC’s new rule interpretation would apply to private companies that raise capital via corporate bond issuances under SEC Rule 144A. If the new interpretation takes effect as scheduled in January 2023, these businesses will face decreased liquidity and increased borrowing costs—leading to significant job losses and a decline in U.S. GDP.

Key Findings:

These impacts will be felt across the economy, resulting in 30,000 jobs lost each year over the first five years the new interpretation is in effect. The job losses will increase over time—rising to 50,000 jobs lost each year after five years and 100,000 jobs lost each year after 10 years.

These job losses are attributable directly to the decreased liquidity and increased borrowing costs associated with the SEC’s new interpretation.

NAM Speaks Out:

NAM Managing Vice President of Tax and Domestic Economic Policy Chris Netram released the following statement:

“At a time of rising interest rates and economic uncertainty, manufacturers cannot afford for the SEC to roil the bond markets arbitrarily. With tens of thousands of jobs at stake, the SEC must act by year’s end to reverse this misguided interpretation.”

NAM Action:

Today, the NAM and the Kentucky Association of Manufacturers are filing two petitions for rulemaking with the SEC seeking to stop the harm this new rule interpretation would cause.

The NAM and the KAM are calling on the SEC to reverse course by clarifying—either by rule or by exemptive order—that Rule 144A issuers are not required to make public financial disclosures. The NAM and the KAM are also seeking emergency interim relief to prevent the new interpretation from taking effect in January.

Background:

• SEC Rule 15c2-11 requires broker dealers to ensure that key information about issuers of over-the-counter equity securities is current and publicly available prior to quoting those issuers’ securities freely.
• SEC Rule 144A allows for resales of securities (primarily corporate debt issuances) to qualified institutional buyers—large financial institutions that own or manage more than $100 million in securities. Retail investors cannot purchase Rule 144A securities. Notably, under Rule 144A, issuers are obligated to make their financial and operational information available to QIBs.
• In September 2021 and December 2021, the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets issued no-action letters applying Rule 15c2-11 to Rule 144A debt; the new requirements take effect in January 2023. This decision contradicted the historical application of Rule 15c2-11 to OTC equity securities and bypassed important rulemaking safeguards required by the Administrative Procedure Act.
• The NAM has weighed in with the SEC and Congress seeking to reverse this damaging interpretation.

-NAM-

The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs more than 12.9 million men and women, contributes $2.77 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 58% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.