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Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the month and 2.4% over the year in September, slightly above consensus expectations of a 2.3% year-over-year increase. This is the smallest over-the-year increase since February 2021. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, ticked up slightly to a 3.3% increase over the year and remains higher than overall CPI.

Shelter increased 0.2% over the month and 4.9% over the year in September. Food, which rose just 0.1% over the month and 2.1% over the year in August, rose 0.4% over the month and 2.3% over the year in September. Together, these two indexes accounted for more than 75% of the monthly increase of the all-items index. Transportation services also remain high, rising 1.4% over the month and 8.5% over the year, with motor vehicle insurance increasing 16.3% over the year.

Energy costs, which fell 1.9% over the month and 6.8% over the year in September, helped restrain the headline inflation rate. This significant decline is partly due to energy prices being elevated in September 2023. While energy commodity prices are down over the year, electricity prices are up 3.7%.

Although the report came in hotter than expected, markets are still anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting in November. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee noted there would likely be more close call-type meetings in deciding the Fed’s interest rate target in the coming months.