Input Stories

Global demand for oil and gas could continue to grow until the middle of this century, according to a new model by the International Energy Agency (The Wall Street Journal, subscription).

What’s going on: “The Paris-based agency, which represents oil-consuming nations, said that under this scenario, demand for oil and natural gas would continue to grow to 2050, while coal goes into a decline before the end of this decade.”

• The IEA had discarded this model previously and focused on one in which consumers weaned themselves off oil and gas in the coming years, “[b]ut a change in policies in the U.S. toward heavier reliance on fossil fuels and the potential for a slower-than-expected take-up for [electric vehicles] could now alter the calculus.”
• The scenario was published as part of the United Nations’ annual climate change talks, now being held in Belem, Brazil.

The details: The report forecasts worldwide demand for oil and gas to rise to 105 million barrels a day in 2035 and 113 million barrels a day in 2050, up from 100 million barrels a day in 2024.

• EV sales, meanwhile, are set to plateau after 2035.

The LNG effect: “Final investment decisions for new [liquefied natural gas] projects have surged this year, with 300 billion cubic meters of new annual export capacity set to come online by 2030—representing a 50% increase in global LNG supply.”
 
“Urgent priorities”: At the same time, electricity and critical mineral security have become top prerogatives.

• Energy supply security will hinge on electrical grid security and energy storage, among other factors, while the major challenge ahead for critical minerals “lies in the high level of supply concentration, particularly in refining, where China controls around 70% of the market for 19 out of 20 critical energy-related minerals.”