Economic Data and Growth

In December, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.3% annual gain, down from the 1.4% gain in November and the weakest full year gain since 2011. The 10-City Composite increased 1.9%, down from 2.0% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 1.4% year-over-year, consistent with November’s gain. Among the 20 cities, Chicago again posted the highest annual gain at 5.3%, followed by New York at 5.1% and Cleveland at 4.0%. Meanwhile, Tampa again posted the lowest annual return, with prices falling 2.9%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index declined 0.3% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite both edged down 0.1%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index rose 0.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both grew 0.5%. The Northeast and Midwest continued to outperform other regions as the second half of the year exhibited weaker price growth. Meanwhile, in addition to Tampa, the Sun Belt market kept declining, including Denver (down 2.1%), Phoenix (down 1.5%), Dallas (down 1.5%) and Miami (down 1.5%).

The combination of high financing costs and prices continued to cap growth. Before seasonal adjustment, 15 of the 20 major metro areas saw price declines in December. Over the year, home prices trailed inflation. In comparison, home prices outpaced inflation by 3.7 percentage points over the prior decade, a trend that reversed starting in June 2025.