News & Insights

Consumer confidence decreased 1.0 point in October to 94.6. Among its components, the Present Situation Index improved while the Expectations Index declined, with consumers’ pessimism about future job availability and future business conditions being partially mitigated by consumers’ views of current job availability improving for the first time since December 2024.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, increased 1.8 points to 129.3. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell 2.9 points to 71.5, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation improved, with 27.8% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” up from September (26.9%), while 18.4% said jobs were “hard to get,” slightly higher than September (18.2%) and up from 14.5% in January. Looking to the future, 27.8% anticipate fewer available jobs in the next six months, up from 25.7% the prior month.

Mentions of high prices and inflation continued to top the list of topics influencing consumers’ views of the economy. Meanwhile, mentions of tariffs continued to decline in October but remained elevated. Comments on U.S. politics increased, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned as a key concern. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations inched up from 5.8% to 5.9% in October. Meanwhile, 52.8% of consumers, compared to 51.1% in September, expect interest rates to rise, and a smaller share of consumers (26.2% vs. 26.9% in September) expect rates to fall.

Buying plans for cars increased in October, while buying plans for homes decreased. Consumers’ plans for buying big-ticket items were little changed in October but have started to pick up after weakening earlier this year. Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services rose after September’s pullback, and vacation intentions seem poised for a recovery. Preliminary data suggest consumers’ holiday spending will be down this year. Overall, consumers’ views of their current and future financial situation strengthened from September.