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Global Manufacturing Contracts as Trade Tensions and Costs Weigh on Outlook

In April, the global manufacturing activity contracted after three consecutive months of growth, falling to 49.8 from 50.3. Three of the five PMI components—new orders, employment and stocks of purchases—signaled contraction. While output and delivery times improved, global trade conditions worsened and optimism slumped to a two-and-a-half-year low. Companies cited concerns about tariffs and protectionism impacting new orders, supply chains and pricing.

India, Greece and the Philippines had the highest PMI readings in April, while the Eurozone and China’s PMI also registered expansions. On the other hand, Japan and the U.S. were two of the larger nations to record contractions, while the U.K. showed the steepest decline. New orders fell for the first time this year, with new export orders suffering its steepest decrease since August 2023. Of the 28 nations included in the report, all but three—Germany, India and Greece—showed declines in new export orders. Output rose slightly in both the consumer and intermediate goods industries but was unchanged for investment goods producers.

Additionally, manufacturing employment fell for the ninth consecutive month in April and at the fastest rate since January. Staffing levels sank notably in China, the U.S., the Eurozone and the U.K. These cuts stemmed from a higher cost environment, as both input and output prices increased, with output prices hitting a 25-month high.

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