General

In March, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 3.4% annual gain, down slightly from 4.0% in February. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 4.8% in March, down from 5.2% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 4.1% year-over-year, down from 4.5%. Among the 20 cities, New York again posted the highest annual gain at 8.0%, followed by Chicago at 6.5% and Cleveland at 5.9%. Tampa again exhibited the lowest annual return, with prices falling 2.2%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index rose 0.8%, the 10-City Composite improved 1.2% and the 20-City Composite increased 1.1% before seasonal adjustment. Meanwhile, after seasonal adjustment, the National Index and the 20-City Composite posted decreases of 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, while the 10-City Composite improved 0.01%. Of the cities tracked by the 20-City Composite Index, 18 showed monthly price growth, signaling that price increases were broad-based across the country. Cleveland (+1.8%), Seattle (+1.8%) and New York (+1.5%) led monthly price gains, while only Tampa (-0.3%) and Miami (-0.2%) exhibited monthly declines.

While affordability continues to be severely constrained, it did not worsen considerably since borrowing costs have stabilized. Mortgage rates continue to hover in the mid-6% range and monthly payment burdens are near multi-decade highs relative to incomes. Nevertheless, weaker buyer demand counteracted persistent supply shortages due to many existing homeowners reluctant to part with low pandemic-era mortgage rates and limited construction activity. March’s upswing in prices underscores both homeowners’ retention of equity and the housing market’s sensitivity to mortgage rates and affordability constraints.

Consumer confidence increased 12.3 points in May to 98.0. The Consumer Confidence Index rose for the first time after falling for five consecutive months. A rebound was apparent in the responses before the May 12 announcement that paused some tariffs on imports from China, but that rebound gained momentum afterward. The improvement was driven largely by consumer expectations with all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects and future income—increasing from April lows.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, rose 4.8 points to 135.9. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, jumped 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below the recession signal threshold of 80.

All components of the Consumer Confidence Index improved, signaling that consumers are less pessimistic and have regained some optimism about future income prospects. On the other hand, views of the current labor market situation are still poor, with 31.8% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” up slightly from April (31.2%), while 18.6% said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 17.5%. Looking to the future, 26.6% anticipate there will be fewer available jobs in the next six months, down from 32.4% the prior month. Additionally, expectations about future income returned to positive territory, with 18.0% of respondents anticipating increases compared to 13.8% expecting decreases.

May’s recovery in confidence was broad-based across age and income groups, with the strongest improvement among Republicans. Inflation expectations likewise edged down to 6.5% in May but remain elevated, with inflation and high prices remaining a top concern for consumers. Mentions of trade and tariffs were still prevalent in written responses, with consumers expressing fears of increasing prices, but there were also some mentions of easing inflation and lower gas prices.

Buying plans for homes and cars improved materially, particularly after the May 12 tariff announcement. Plans to buy big-ticket items were also up. Meanwhile, expectations for higher interest rates were unchanged. Consumers’ views of their current financial situation improved from April, when it reached the lowest level since 2022. Nonetheless, consumers were more worried about not being able to buy things they need or want than they were about losing their jobs.

Special questions in May focused on if consumers had changed their spending habits or financial behavior recently. More than one-third (36.7%) said they had saved money for future spending, and 26.0% postponed major purchases. On the flip side, 26.6% said they dipped into savings for goods and services. There were sizable differences between income groups, with households making more than $125,000 more likely to save while those under that threshold were more likely to dig into savings or postpone purchases. Higher income groups were also more likely to make advanced purchases ahead of tariff price increases.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District contracted in May, but at a slower pace than the previous month, with the composite manufacturing index rising from -13 to -9. Nonetheless, the local business conditions index deteriorated further, falling from -21 in April to -25 in May. On the other hand, manufacturers are less pessimistic about the future, with the outlook for future local business conditions rising from -37 in April to -6. The Fifth Federal Reserve District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia.

Among its components, shipments and new orders improved but remained negative, rising from -17 to -10 and from -15 to -14, respectively. Employment edged up from -5 to -2, indicating hiring decreased at a slower rate in May. The vendor lead time index jumped from 1 to 15 in May, while the share of firms reporting backlogs rose from -24 to -19. The average growth rates of prices paid and received were little changed.

Looking ahead, firms still expect both price indexes to rise in the next 12 months but at a slower pace than forecasted in April. Expectations for future shipments rebounded from -20 to 2, turning positive, while new orders improved notably but remained negative at -3, suggesting that firms anticipate business to decline marginally in the next six months. Expectations for backlogs were largely the same, moving from -30 to -27. Meanwhile, firms continued a cautious approach to equipment and software spending, with expectations improving slightly to -13. Expectations for spending on capital expenditures remained the same at -15. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District are hesitant about the prospects for future growth and making new investments but are less sour on current conditions compared to April.

In May, Texas factory activity held steady, following slight growth in April. The production index fell four points to 0.9, indicating relatively flat output growth. The new orders index remained negative but improved, rising to -8.7 from -20.0 in April. The capacity utilization index also rose but remained negative, up 2.3 points to -1.5, while the shipments index turned positive, increasing six points to 0.5.

Perceptions of manufacturing business conditions continued to worsen in May but at a slower rate of decline than the prior month, with the general business activity index rising more than 20 points to -15.3. The company outlook index also improved while remaining negative, increasing to -11.3 from -28.3. Meanwhile, the outlook uncertainty index, which has been volatile in recent months, retreated in May, falling more than 34 points to 12.7. The series average is 17.3.

Labor market indicators suggested a slight increase in head counts and shorter workweeks in May, with the employment index back in positive territory at 3.5, while the hours worked index remained negative at -3.6. More than 11% of firms reported net hiring, while a smaller percentage (8.0%) noted net layoffs.

Historically high upward pressure on prices persisted in May, while wage growth remained relatively stable. The prices paid for raw materials index softened slightly, falling from 48.4 to 40.7. Meanwhile, the prices paid for finished goods index was largely unchanged, rising just 0.2 points. Both price indexes are roughly double their series averages. Meanwhile, the wages and benefits index is below the series average of 21.1, increasing 0.7 points to 15.0 in May.

The outlook for future manufacturing activity improved from April, with the future production index increasing from 14.8 to 31.1. Meanwhile, the future general business activity index and the future company outlook index both turned positive, rising 16.5 points and 11.6 points to 1.3 and 5.6, respectively. Other indicators also rose but remained below average.

The first brand-new U.S. liquefied natural gas export facility to advance under the new administration has gotten the final financial green light (Reuters, subscription).

What’s going on: “Australia’s Woodside Energy gave final approval to build a $17.5 billion liquefied natural gas project in Louisiana.”

•  The project—estimated to begin delivering gas in 2029—will be the largest single from-scratch investment in Louisiana to date, as well as the largest single foreign direct investment in the state’s history, according to Louisiana Economic Development.

What the project has: The Woodside LNG endeavor is “in a foreign trade zone, which gives it relief on some customs duties.”

• The construction will use mostly U.S.-based contractors, services and workers, and about half of the materials and equipment will be sourced domestically.

What it means: The project, which has an estimated lifespan of 40 years once operational, will help Woodside “produce around 24 million tonnes per annum from its worldwide LNG portfolio in the next decade, making up over 5% of global supply, to service demand in Europe and Asia.”

The NAM says: “Tremendous news from [Woodside Energy],” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons wrote following the announcement. “Growing LNG production is vital for fostering job creation, incentivizing investment and driving America’s economy forward.”

The NAM’s record: The NAM has long urged policymakers to supercharge the nation’s LNG export capacity. In 2024, it released a joint study with EY that found the LNG export industry’s total fiscal support of federal, state and local governments was $11 billion in 2023 alone.

• The study also found that the sector, which has created tens of thousands of jobs, could support more than 900,000 additional positions and add $216 billion to U.S. gross domestic product by 2044.
• Last December, the NAM made recommendations to Trump’s transition team, advocating the removal of the Biden export ban, a move that Trump made on his first day.
• In April, the NAM recommended to 10 federal agencies that 44 regulations should be revised or rescinded. Among those proposals was the recommendation that the Department of Energy issue a new study on LNG exports.

  The Manufacturing Leadership Council, the NAM’s digital transformation division, has announced its list of finalists for the Manufacturing Leadership Awards—an honor given to world-class manufacturing companies and leaders who are revolutionizing the industry’s digital capabilities.

The big reveal: All finalists will be celebrated at the ML Awards gala on June 18 in San Marco Island, Florida, where the winners will be announced.

• The awards given include the Future of Manufacturing Award, the Manufacturing Leader of the Year, the Small/Medium Enterprise Manufacturer of the Year and Large Enterprise Manufacturer of the Year.
• Manufacturers can also win awards in several categories, including artificial intelligence vision and strategy, business model transformation, collaborative ecosystems and more.
• Award nominations were judged by a distinguished group of manufacturing leaders from across the industry.
• You can see a complete list of finalists here.

Rethink: Ahead of the Awards gala, the MLC will be hosting Rethink, where manufacturing leaders gather to learn best practices and make connections. The star-studded lineup includes:

• A keynote address on digital transformation from Siemens USA President and CEO Barbara Humpton;
• A talk on “How Wall Street Views Digital Transformation in Manufacturing” by Goldman Sachs Managing Director, Technology, Media and Telecommunications Group Jack Anstey;
• An inside look at Hershey’s digital factory, featuring The Hershey Company Vice President of Manufacturing and Engineering and MLC Board of Governors member Will Bonifant; and
• Numerous case studies, best practice sessions, networking opportunities and more.

The last word: “In times of business uncertainty, manufacturers find that investments in digital technology can pay off for improving efficiency and overall performance and innovation,” said MLC Founder, Vice President and Executive Director David Brousell. “In our 21st season of recognizing excellence in Manufacturing 4.0, it is remarkable to witness the innovative methodologies that manufacturers are continually developing to propel their digital transformation initiatives.”

Join us: If you’d like to learn more about Rethink or register for the conference, go here.

When JaNette Barnett, vice president of field sales at Pella Corporation, is asked why she has spent nearly 30 years of her career in manufacturing, the answer comes easily. “I have always been drawn to the home improvement space, so it’s no surprise that my manufacturing experience has been centered in that sector—from cabinetry to lightbulbs, to plumbing to paint, and now windows.”

• “What makes this [sector] interesting to me is it delights our end consumer. It puts a smile on their face when they can transform their spaces in ways that make them feel at home.”

Barnett channels this joy into her efforts to modernize Pella’s sales team, a track record that won her recognition as part of the 2025 Women MAKE America Awards. Created by the Manufacturing Institute, the NAM’s workforce development and education affiliate, the awards honor 130 individuals who have achieved excellence in the manufacturing industry.

Barnett and the other honorees, selected by a panel of peers, will be celebrated at the Awards gala in Washington, D.C., on April 24, but we caught up with her earlier about her decades-long experience in the industry and advice for young people just starting out.

Her achievements: Barnett has been a game-changing leader for Pella’s field sales team, delivering a 30% year-over-year sales increase in 2024.

• Thanks to her extensive experience at previous companies, she has reconfigured its sales territories, overseen an expansion of the company’s sales team and improved its compensation structure—all of which has led to impressive engagement levels among Pella’s field sales personnel.
• Beyond that, Barnett is a highly respected mentor of young professionals at Pella and runs a foundation she named for her grandmother, the Betty Jefferson Memorial Fund, to support the education of Black, inner-city young people just as her grandmother did.

How it all began: As Barnett tells it, she fell into manufacturing two decades ago while looking for a job in marketing. She accepted a job in sales, but when she arrived, she found she’d been assigned to the production scheduling department instead—a job that involved walking the factory floor in steel-toed boots.

• “It wasn’t what I signed up for, but it was the best pivot ever,” said Barnett. “It put me in the heart of manufacturing—and as a sales and marketing leader, it gave me a different perspective on how products are made.”

Gaining insight: Her experience on the factory floor has informed her work ever since, even after she moved on to the corporate side of manufacturing. Today, she emphasizes that her holistic view of manufacturing impacts how she thinks about her sales work at Pella.

• “I truly believe that manufacturing is the heartbeat of the organization,” said Barnett. “Too often, that gets lost from a sales and marketing lens. We don’t always have a clear sense of the people behind the product getting made.”

Mentoring others: Barnett emphasized the importance of mentoring in introducing more people to the manufacturing industry. Especially at a time when manufacturing faces a significant employment gap—with more than 450,000 job openings today and an estimated 3.8 million positions needing to be filled by 2033—it is crucial to reach individuals who might not otherwise consider a career in the industry, she pointed out.

• “I believe mentoring is a form of paying it forward and bringing others along,” said Barnett. “There’s a need to bring new and fresh ideas to these places. And if people have aspirations to be in leadership, it’s my honor to help mentor them and help them understand that they can do the things they set their sights on.”

The last word: “My message has always been: You’re needed,” said Barnett. “We need you in this space. We need everything you can bring to the table.”

Washington, D.C. – At a critical moment for manufacturing policy, the National Association of Manufacturers today announced the promotion of Charles Crain to managing vice president of policy, overseeing the NAM’s team of expert advocates driving policy outcomes that fuel growth, innovation and competitiveness for manufacturers across the U.S.

“Charles has been a driving force behind many of the NAM’s most important policy victories,” said NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons. “From leading the NAM’s policy and advocacy efforts to secure pro-growth, pro-manufacturing tax reforms, to protecting manufacturers from activist overreach and proxy advisory firms, Charles understands what’s at stake—and what it takes—to advance policies in a comprehensive manufacturing strategy that will empower the 13 million people who make things in America. He is the right leader at a pivotal time for our industry.”

Crain has played a central role in shaping the NAM’s agenda across tax, regulatory, corporate governance, technology and health care policy. Most recently, he served as vice president of domestic policy, where he led initiatives to modernize regulations, preserve the 2017 tax reforms, finalize and defend pro-manufacturing proxy rules, enhance oversight of pharmacy benefit managers and promote artificial intelligence innovation across manufacturing.

Since joining the NAM seven years ago, Crain has built a strong reputation as a trusted policy leader and effective advocate—starting with the development of a dedicated corporate governance portfolio that has since become a cornerstone of the NAM’s work.

In his new role reporting to NAM Executive Vice President Erin Streeter, Crain leads a powerhouse policy team that includes Vice President of Domestic Policy Chris Phalen, Vice President of International Policy Andrea Durkin and Chief Economist Victoria Bloom. He also joins a dynamic group of NAM senior external affairs leaders, including Managing Vice President of Government Relations Stef Webb, Managing Vice President of Brand Strategy Chrys Kefalas and Managing Vice President of Communications and Public Affairs Jamie Hennigan—forming a united front driving the NAM’s mission to advance policies that strengthen manufacturing in the U.S.

Before joining the NAM, Crain worked at the Biotechnology Innovation Organization, where he focused on financial services, tax and health care policy. He began his career on Capitol Hill, serving members of both the House Financial Services and Senate Finance Committees. A native of Birmingham, Alabama, Crain holds a B.A. in political science from Mercer University in Macon, Georgia.

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The National Association of Manufacturers is the largest manufacturing association in the United States, representing small and large manufacturers in every industrial sector and in all 50 states. Manufacturing employs nearly 13 million men and women, contributes $2.93 trillion to the U.S. economy annually and accounts for 53% of private-sector research and development. The NAM is the powerful voice of the manufacturing community and the leading advocate for a policy agenda that helps manufacturers compete in the global economy and create jobs across the United States. For more information about the NAM or to follow us on Twitter and Facebook, please visit www.nam.org.

On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90-day pause of country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs above 10%, setting the “reciprocal” tariff rate at a flat 10%. However, he also announced an increase of additional “reciprocal” tariffs on Chinese imports, to 125%. The NAM’s trade team has the exact details for us.

Ninety days to negotiate: Trump’s executive order temporarily resets the additional country-specific ad valorem tariffs listed in Annex I of the April 2 executive order to a common 10% baseline, though previous exceptions still apply.

• The new rates went into effect on April 10, and the temporary reset applies until July 9, 2025, while the administration negotiates trade deals.

Higher tariffs on China: In response to China’s retaliation, the executive order increases tariffs on imports from China (and its administrative regions Hong Kong and Macau) into the U.S. from 84% to 125% as of April 10.

• The 125% rate is on top of the 20% additional rate on Chinese imports issued on Feb. 1, and in addition to any applicable Section 301 tariffs, Section 232 tariffs, MFN tariffs and AD/CVD tariffs.

De minimis: The April 2 EO laid out a new scheme for collecting tariffs on Chinese goods that would otherwise have been eligible for duty-free de minimis treatment, being valued at or below $800.The A pril 10 EO amends the previous order as follows:

•  From May 2, 2025, the tariff on postal items is increased from 90% to 120% of the package’s value or a flat fee per postal item.
• The flat fee is increased from $75 to $100.
• This flat fee was set to increase to $150 on June 1, 2025. This fee is now increased from $150 to $200.

 The U.S. stock market saw its worst day yesterday since the early days of the pandemic, following President Trump’s latest round of tariffs. These tariffs, when combined with other U.S. tariffs in 2025, make the U.S. average effective tariff rate 22.5%—the highest rate since 1909, according to The Budget Lab at Yale.

Manufacturers already had record-high concerns about trade uncertainties before this latest announcement, as the NAM’s Q1 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey found.  Now, the uncertainty and instability have only increased, reminding observers the last time the U.S. imposed sweeping tariffs—with disastrous consequences.

Back then: The Tariff Act of 1930, also known as the Smoot-Hawley Act, was signed into law by President Herbert Hoover. Originally intended to protect the U.S. agricultural industry, it was later expanded to cover a broad swath of the U.S. economy, as CNBC recounts.

• The Smoot-Hawley Act imposed tariffs on approximately 25% of all imports to the U.S., according to Santa Clara University economic historian Kris James Mitchener.
• Some sounded the alarm at the time. Before signing the law in June 1930, President Hoover received “a petition signed by more than 1,000 economists asking him to veto the bill.”

A spiral: “Smoot-Hawley raised the average tariff on dutiable imports to 47% from 40%, [Dartmouth economist Doug] Irwin said. Depression-era price deflation ultimately helped push that average to almost 60% in 1932, he added.”

• Compare that to now: the latest tariff rates will be higher than the Smoot-Hawley levels, as reported by CNBC .

Manufacturers hurt: Following the passage of Smoot-Hawley, Argentina, Australia, Canada, Cuba, France, Italy, Mexico, Spain and Switzerland all responded with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.  These tariffs often fell on manufactured products, weakening the sector amid the economic catastrophe of the Depression.

• For example, France, Spain, Italy and Switzerland increased tariffs on American cars, effectively closing off those markets to major American exports.
• In all, “U.S. exports to retaliating nations fell by about 28% to 32%, said Mitchener. Further, nations that protested Smoot-Hawley also reduced their U.S. imports by 15% to 23%.”

Long-lasting pain: The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid following the imposition of the tariffs, bottoming out in July 1932.

History lesson: Smoot-Hawley has long been condemned by American leaders of both parties as a mistake that severely damaged the American economy.

• Before taking office, Roosevelt denounced the Smoot-Hawley Act, saying it “compelled the world to build tariff fences so high that world trade is decreasing to vanishing point.” He would sign the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act, which reduced tariffs with trading partners on a reciprocal basis, in 1934.
• When President Ronald Reagan spoke to the NAM’s Annual Meeting in 1986, he said, “I well remember the antitrade frenzy in the late twenties that produced the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, greasing the skids for our descent into the Great Depression and the most destructive war this world has ever seen. That’s one episode of history I’m determined we will never repeat.”

Modern realities:  President Trump has insisted that “we’re bringing wealth back to America” through these sweeping tariffs (CNBC). But manufacturers are urging caution, especially when future tax policy is so uncertain.

• One family-owned U.S. textile manufacturer, founded in 1887, warns that tariffs will dramatically raise the prices of its components, such as fabric, thread, yarn and fiber—none of which it can source in the U.S. “Tariffs would force us to curtail employment or close facilities if our customers would not accept higher prices,” the company said.
• Another manufacturer, an employee-owned firm, makes products and systems that control, monitor and protect utility and industrial electric power systems—which is critical for the coming buildout of new power generators and the electrical grid to meet the demand for AI datacenters. Tariffs will materially harm its ability to enable this essential economic growth.
• A third manufacturing company, a 100-year-old Wisconsin company specializing in custom-designed thermal solutions and large-scale HVAC cooling systems used in agriculture, mining, oil and gas and more, says that “tariffs on Canada and Mexico could cause us to take cost-cutting measures, including workforce reductions.”
• Last, a manufacturer that has made chemicals in the U.S. since the late 1800s reports that tariffs may set back its plans for expansion in North America, “which is already five times more expensive for us than in Asia and three times more expensive than in Europe.” The company will be less able to support crucial semiconductor manufacturing, and may even have to close low-margin business lines in the U.S.

The last word: “[M]anufacturers are scrambling to determine the exact implications for their operations [of the April 2 tariffs],” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons said on Wednesday. “The stakes for manufacturers could not be higher. Many manufacturers in the United States already operate with thin margins. The high costs of new tariffs threaten investment, jobs, supply chains and, in turn, America’s ability to outcompete other nations and lead as the preeminent manufacturing superpower.”