General

New residential construction in the U.S. soared to their highest levels in more than a year in May, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

What’s going on: Construction starts rose 21.7% from April to May, to 1,631,000 units at the annual rate from 1,340,000 units, the largest increase in these numbers in more than a year.  

• Single-family homebuilding jumped 18.5% to 997,000 in May from 841,000 in April. It’s a level last seen in June 2022.
• Multifamily housing starts increased 27.1%, to a 14-month high. 

Permits: New housing permits, which are a proxy for future residential building, increased 5.2% from April to May.

• Single-family permits rose 4.8%, up for the fourth consecutive month, to a 10-month high
• Multifamily permits increased 5.9% in May.

Overall: Housing starts have risen 5.7% overall since May 2022, but starts of single-family homes have dipped 6.6% year-over-year, even in the face of solid gains in the most recent data.

• On a year-over-year basis, housing permits have declined 12.7% from May 2022, with permits for single-family homes falling even more, by 13.2%.

The NAM’s take: “Issues of affordability have impacted the new housing starts negatively over the past year, but Americans have become accustomed to the ‘new normal’ in mortgage rates,” said NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray.

• “Would-be homebuyers are coming back into the market. With little inventory, the strong growth in housing starts [was] encouraging.”

The Panama Canal—which “handles about one-third of Asia-to-Americas seaborne trade”—is at its lowest level in more than 100 years, a development that could jeopardize global supply chains, according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What’s going on: “The government agency that manages the artificial waterway implemented travel restrictions in May to avoid ships running aground, and since then, some large vessels have had to reduce container loads by roughly one-quarter. Further restrictions could go into effect in late June, authorities say.”

• In the first five months of 2023, rainfall in the canal area was 47% below the historical average.
• The canal, which opened in 1914, depends heavily on rainfall to replenish the tens of millions of gallons of water that flow into the sea each time a ship goes through the canal’s locks.

Why it’s important: “Disruptions in the canal’s operations would hurt Southern Hemisphere exporters and importers in the north. Brazilian meat, Chilean wines and bananas from Ecuador are routinely shipped across the canal, along with copper from Chile and liquefied natural gas from the U.S. Gulf Coast.”

• Panamanian officials are trying to avoid a repeat of the problems that afflicted the Suez Canal in March 2021, when a large containership blocked that waterway for nearly a week, costing billions of trade dollars.

The fallout: “In addition to cutting cargo loads, shipowners are adjusting to Panama Canal restrictions by moving containers to trains to ensure safe passage through locks. In some instances, boxes are unloaded from ships on the Pacific Ocean side of the canal, moved by rail and returned to ships before they continue their voyage through the Atlantic Ocean.”

• The Panama Canal Railway has seen a 20% increase in cargo volume as a result of the drought.
• Shipowners are responding by charging an average of $600 more per box on vessels that cross the canal.
• The daily Asia–U.S. East Coast freight rate was $2,400 per container in May, according to Freightos Baltic Index, but it is expected to rise this month partly due to the drought surcharge.

What’s next: Large container shipping companies “have no plans to divert ships away from Panama”—for now. “[E]xecutives said it could happen if drought conditions persist.”

During meetings this week, the U.S. and China attempted to restore high-level bilateral interactions and reverse the tension growing between the two nations, according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What’s going on: “During two days of meetings in Beijing, [U.S. Secretary of State Antony] Blinken and senior Chinese foreign-policy officials agreed to more high-level talks, continuing a thaw after months of near-frozen contacts.”

• “They also promised to find common ground on increasing flights between the two countries and combating the flow of fentanyl into the U.S.”

The background: In recent months, U.S.–China relations have been on a downward trend, following U.S. detection of what the Biden administration said was a Chinese spy balloon.

• Last year, the U.S. imposed restrictions on the export of certain advanced technology to China and is expected to issue new limits on U.S. investments overseas.
• China has taken issue with these moves, as well as with U.S. support for ally Taiwan.
• Some 67% of Americans say China is a “major threat” to the U.S., according to a Pew Research Center questionnaire. That’s up from 43% in 2015.

Topics discussed: During his visit, Blinken raised a number of issues, including tensions over Taiwan and North Korean aggression. He also discussed China’s trade-distorting practices, human rights violations, imprisonment of U.S. citizens and position on Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to POLITICO.

• The meetings also touched on areas of mutual interest, including climate, macroeconomic stability, food security and public health.

What didn’t happen: Blinken’s visit to China—the first by a U.S. cabinet member in more than four years—did not produce substantive advancement on the above issues. However, the meeting served as a starting point for future high-level communications.

• Officials did not address Chinese intelligence movements in Cuba or the establishment of “a military communication channel between the countries to address frequent incidents around Taiwan … a key goal of the Biden administration.”

​​​​​​​Business with China: “Blinken said he also met with members of the U.S. business community on Monday, many of whom expressed a desire to continue to grow their operations in China,” according to POLITICO.

• “He said a full decoupling of the American and Chinese economies would be disastrous, pointing to record trade between the two last year, but said the U.S. would continue to take steps to make American supply chains more resilient and deny China technologies that threaten U.S. national security.”

Unions and their employers at 29 West Coast ports have reached a tentative deal resolving a labor crisis that has lasted almost a year, reports CNBC.

No details yet: While the deal will last six years and cover all 29 ports, no details have been released yet.

• “We are pleased to have reached an agreement that recognizes the heroic efforts and personal sacrifices of the ILWU workforce in keeping our ports operating,” said Pacific Maritime Association President James McKenna and International Longshore and Warehouse Union President Willie Adams in a joint statement.

​​​​​​ Ramping back up: Workers at several ports had engaged in slowdowns or had not shown up for shifts over the course of the past two weeks, leading to delays and congestion.

• “The ports, which are currently running at 70% capacity, will need several days to clear out the containers once a full labor force is back to work.”

​​​​​​​The NAM says: “Manufacturers welcome last night’s announcement of a long-term deal between the #ILWU and #PMA. Certainty at America’s West Coast ports ensures reliability in domestic shipping lanes and keeps manufacturing in America competitive and thriving,” tweeted NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons.

• “@POTUS understands that manufacturing is the backbone of our economy, and @ShopfloorNAM thanks President Biden for his leadership in bringing these parties back together to reach a final agreement that eliminates the threat of additional supply chain disruptions.”

China’s cyber-spying capabilities are “an epoch-defining threat,” the top U.S. cybersecurity official warned this week, according to CNBC.

What’s going on: Aggressive cyber actions by China are “‘the real threat that we need to be prepared for,’ Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Jen Easterly said at an appearance Monday at the Aspen Institute in Washington, D.C.”

• Easterly was answering a question about the recent discovery of Chinese cyberattacks on the U.S. military and the private sector, by a group dubbed “Volt Typhoon.”

Why it’s important: The U.S. should expect groups like Volt Typhoon to try to target pipelines and railways, Easterly said, adding, “It’s going to be very, very difficult for us to prevent disruptions from happening.”

The backdrop: Tensions have escalated between China and the U.S., leading to greater concern about attacks.

• “Fending off cyber threats from China and Asia has become a top priority for the U.S. government, which has begun to describe in clearer and blunter terms the links between the Chinese government and myriad hacking groups.”

More than 99% of International Longshore and Warehouse Union Canada workers whose jobs are critical to West Coast port operations voted in favor of a labor strike, according to CNBC.

What’s going on: “The vote, which took place on June 9–June 10, occurred during a 21-day cooling-off period between the British Maritime Employers Association and ILWU Canada. Negotiations with the Federal Maritime Conciliation Service started on March 28. Two mediators appointed by the Canadian government were overseeing the discussions that ran through the end of May.”

• June 24 is the soonest a strike would occur.

In the U.S.: The Canadian development—which threatens the Port of Vancouver, the largest port in Canada—comes as tensions rise in the U.S. between the ILWU and the Pacific Maritime Association, which have been negotiating a labor contract since May 2022.

Why it’s a problem: About 15% of container trade that comes through the Port of Vancouver is destined for or coming from the U.S.

• “Canadian shippers could shift trade to the neighboring Port of Seattle, but the Port of Seattle has been significantly impacted by labor slowdowns and work stoppages which led to its closure on Saturday as the ILWU in the U.S. continues to negotiate with the Pacific Maritime Association for a new contract, with wages and automation proving to be sticking points.”

Why it’s important: The events in Canada are “a significant blow to operations on the West Coast,” ITS Logistics Vice President of Drayage and Intermodal Paul Brashier told the Journal.

• “These ports are vital to Midwest manufacturers and the auto industry, as most transpacific freight enters at these points prior to interlining to rail and going to inland rail ramps in Chicago and other major markets. More significant is that these ports were used as relief valves to avoid ILWU activity.”

Our view: The NAM has been recommending White House intervention in the U.S. labor dispute for many months.

• “[With] the dramatic impact of port closures, your leadership and intervention are needed,” NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons told President Biden last week. “Manufacturers respectfully encourage you to bring the parties back together and reach a final agreement that reopens our West Coast ports and eliminates the threat of additional supply chain disruptions.”

Producer prices dropped more than expected in May, and the annual producer-inflation increase was the smallest in almost two-and-a-half years, Reuters (subscription) reports.

What’s going on: “In the 12 months through May, the [Department of Labor’s Producer Price Index] climbed 1.1%. That was the smallest year-on-year rise since December 2020 and followed a 2.3% increase in April. The annual PPI rate is moderating as last year’s surge drops out of the calculation.”

• Producer prices for final demand goods fell 1.6% in May, owing largely to falling energy costs, after increasing an unrevised 0.2% in April.
• Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted the PPI would dip 0.1% from April and rise 1.5% year-on-year.

The backdrop: The report comes a day after the Labor Department reported the smallest year-on-year increase in U.S. consumer prices in more than two years.

Why it’s important: Federal Reserve “officials are expected to keep rates unchanged at the end of their two-day meeting, for the first time since March 2022 when the U.S. central bank embarked on its fastest monetary policy tightening campaign in more than 40 years. … [The central bank] was seen leaving the door open to further rate increases given the economy’s resilience, particularly the labor market.”

The U.S. railway system may be a solution to serious energy problems, according to ENERGYWIRE’s E&E News (subscription).

What’s going on: During extreme weather events, “trains could dispatch batteries across the country, preventing blackouts without expensive new energy infrastructure,” according to a new Department of Energy study cited by the news source.

• The fix would be less expensive than constructing either new transmission infrastructure or standalone battery storage for extreme-weather occurrences, researchers found.

Why it’s important: Approximately two-thirds of the U.S. is at risk of blackouts this summer, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation warned recently.

Power by rail: Just one train could carry enough battery storage to supply 50,000 households with energy for 12 hours, researchers found.

• “The reach of the country’s 140,000-mile rail network also makes it attractive from a grid perspective, since it extends into dense population centers and transmission-congested regions. That reach has already prompted DOE to identify rail rights-of-way as potential hot spots for a transmission buildout.”

However … While mobile battery storage looks promising, it needs further exploration on a larger scale, one source told E&E News.

As demand for raw materials escalates, mining companies in the U.S. are struggling to find enough workers to keep up, reports The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What’s happening: The U.S. is advancing its green-energy transition while also developing new domestic sources of minerals to decrease reliance on China.

Workforce shortage: “The overall industry’s seasonally adjusted head count shrank by nearly 39% since 1990 … according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

• While colleges and universities—not to mention companies themselves—are working to fill the gap, they are not turning out new workers fast enough.
• “‘The problem is that talent isn’t lying around waiting to be paid more—there just isn’t enough of it,’ said Andrea Brickey, an associate professor of mining engineering and management at the South Dakota School of Mines & Technology.”

Get help: If you are searching for ways to attract or upskill workers, the Manufacturing Institute (the NAM’s 501(c)3 workforce development and education affiliate) has you covered. It can also help you start preparing now for manufacturing’s biggest opportunity to reach young people and prospective workers: MFG Day.

The yearly rate of inflation slowed in May to less than half of what it was at its peak last year, but it’s still far higher than the Federal Reserve’s goal, according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription).

What’s going on: Consumer prices increased 4% in May from a year earlier, marking the 11th straight month of slowdowns.

• On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1% in May, following a 0.4% increase in April.
• Core consumer prices—which exclude food and energy and are considered a better predictor of future inflation—rose 5.3% year-over-year in May, owing partly to increasing rent costs.

The good: “The U.S. economy has maintained momentum this year, staving off predictions of recession. The job market remains robust, and consumers have boosted their spending, though one measure shows economic output is falling. A possible credit crunch following the March collapse of a few regional banks could crimp the economy.”

The not so good: “While inflation has cooled significantly, higher prices for many goods and services are weighing on household spending decisions.”
 
What’s coming: The Fed meets today and tomorrow to determine its next steps for interest rates, which it has raised aggressively in the past year—though it probably will not raise them again this week, according to NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray.

• The Fed “is likely to make no changes to the federal funds rate this week, but with inflation remaining more stubborn than preferred, it could hike short-term rates by 25 basis points at either or both of its July 25–26 and Sept. 19–20 meetings before hitting the pause button on rate changes,” he said.