General

The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for the international economy on Tuesday despite slowing activity in China, according to CNBC.

What’s going on: “In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth prediction by 0.2 percentage points to 3%, up from 2.8% at its April assessment. The IMF kept [its] 2024 growth forecast unchanged at 3%.”

• The IMF expects inflation to improve, too, and sees core inflation “declining more slowly to 6% this year, from 6.5% last year.”
• IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in a blog post Tuesday that “the signs of progress are undeniable.”

However … Global economic challenges remain on the horizon, the IMF cautioned, citing a less-than-robust Chinese economic recovery from the pandemic, weakness in China’s real-estate market and an expected contraction of Germany’s economy.

• In Germany, manufacturing output declined in Q1 2023.
• Across nations that use the euro, “[d]ata released Monday showed business activity shrinking at a faster pace than expected.”

Our take: “While there continue to be significant challenges in the manufacturing sector globally, it is encouraging to see signs of resilience—not just in the U.S. economy, but in other markets as well,” said NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray.

United Parcel Service Inc. and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters came to a tentative agreement on a five-year labor contract yesterday, according to NBC News.

What’s going on: “Union leaders announced the deal midday Tuesday, hours after resuming negotiations following a breakdown in talks on July 5. The handshake agreement must still be approved by rank-and-file union members at UPS to take effect.”

• The current contract between the parties was set to expire on July 31. Earlier this year, the Teamsters overwhelmingly voted to strike beginning as soon as 12:01 a.m. Aug. 1 if no agreement had been reached.
• The tentative agreement—said to be worth about $30 billion in total—averts the possibility of a strike, which could have further snarled manufacturing supply chains and significantly affected domestic shipping services.
• The contract covers 340,000 UPS workers.

What they’re saying: “The deal, [UPS CEO Carol Tome] said, ‘continues to reward UPS’s full- and part-time employees with industry-leading pay and benefits while retaining the flexibility we need to stay competitive, serve our customers and keep our business strong.’” She called it a “win-win-win.”

• Teamsters President Sean O’Brien said in a statement that the deal “sets a new standard in the labor movement and raises the bar for all workers.”

Why it’s important: “A work stoppage by UPS drivers would have been the largest single-employer strike in U.S. history. A recent forecast by the Anderson Economic Group estimated that a 10-day walkout would cost the U.S. economy some $7 billion, with workers racking up $1.1 billion in lost wages and UPS seeing $816 million in losses.”

Our take: “Manufacturers applaud today’s agreement between @UPS and @Teamsters and thank both parties for working quickly to reach a resolution that provides our industry with the supply chain certainty we need to keep the U.S. economy strong,” the NAM tweeted yesterday following news of the deal.

Following years of regulatory disputes, the incandescent lightbulb will be almost completely phased out starting this month, according to E&E News’ ENERGYWIRE (subscription).

What’s going on: “Along with prohibiting the manufacture, import and retail sales of most incandescent bulbs, [Department of Energy] rules finalized last year authorize DOE to slap penalties of $542 on companies per each violation. That could mean millions of dollars in fines for large incandescent orders.”

• DOE says the move will cut greenhouse gas emissions and lower consumers’ utility bills.
• While there is not an explicit ban on incandescent bulbs, most of them are unable to meet the efficiency requirements that were set by Congress in 2007 and will now go into full enforcement.

What it could mean: “Industry representatives say the sweep of regulations on various appliances will spike upfront costs for consumers in the market for appliances,” ENERGYWIRE reports. “Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill argue the Biden administration is waging a back-door campaign to ban gas stoves and other appliances.”
 

Sales of new single-family homes dropped 2.5% in June after increasing for three consecutive months, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

What’s going on: New construction sales fell to a seasonally adjusted 697,000 units last month from a revised May rate of 715,000 units.

• The median sales price of new homes in June was $415,400, down from $416,300 in May.
• Purchases of new homes declined in Midwest and West, but continued to grow in the Northeast and South.

Still higher than 2022: However, June’s sales rate is 23.8% above last June’s estimated rate of 563,000 units.

Supply: June also saw a new-home supply of 7.4 months, up from May’s 7.2 months.

The NAM’s take: “The housing market continued to be challenged by affordability issues and an uncertain economic outlook,” NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray said. “Still, with inventories low, tremendous demand and need exist for more housing.”

The Department of Energy released a draft proposal late last week that would impose stricter efficiency standards on water heaters—and increase costs for manufacturers, E&E News’ ENERGYWIRE (subscription) and The Washington Examiner report.

What’s going on: On Friday night, the DOE released a 425-page plan “to mandate energy efficiency levels for new consumer water heaters, which the department defines as appliances in homes and small businesses that use ‘oil, gas or electricity to heat potable water for use outside the heater upon demand,’” according to ENERGYWIRE.

• The Biden administration says the move—which would go into effect in 2029 if approved in its current iteration—would cut carbon dioxide emissions and reduce energy use by residential water heaters, saving consumers money.
• The draft rule arrives just months after the DOE released a proposal to phase out approximately half of the gas-powered stoves on the market. The House recently approved two measures to stop “gas stove rulemaking from DOE and the Consumer Product Safety Commission,” according to ENERGYWIRE.

What it would mean: The water heater rule would force manufacturers to use heat pump technology to produce electric water heaters and condensing technology to make gas-fired water heaters—and it would spike production costs in the process, according to the Examiner.

• “The [DOE] draft outlines the potential effect on manufacturers, estimating the implementation of the updated standards could result in ‘a loss of $207.3 million to a gain of $165.5 million’ through the year 2056. The DOE estimates conversion costs would be $228.1 million,” the Examiner reports.

The NAM says: “These proposed regulations add costs to manufacturers and consumers and remove market options,” said NAM Vice President of Domestic Economic Policy Brandon Farris.

• “Manufacturers believe that regulations should allow manufacturers in America to compete in a global market—while protecting consumers. The targets proposed by the DOE fail to accomplish that goal.”

Lack of flexibility is a top workforce challenge for employees, according to a recent report released by the MI. To address this concern and help employees attract and retain more workers, the MI has been convening manufacturing leaders to discuss flexibility solutions, identify what’s working and share insights. Here are some of the key takeaways.

The shop floor challenge: Flexible work arrangements for shop floor workers are different from those offered to office staff or remote workers, as manufacturers must fulfill in-person production requirements and timelines.

• Companies have gotten creative, testing out different options including compressed work weeks, rotating schedules, flex scheduling, shift swapping and phased retirements.

A data-driven approach: Participants in the MI’s working group conducted surveys to gauge the types of flexibility their employees wanted. Companies then assessed production needs before determining what flexibility options they would test, sometimes with the help of a consultant.

• One company collected data on recruitment and retention as part of their pilot to help evaluate its effectiveness.
• Other companies utilized employee engagement surveys to assess the success of their pilots.

Support system: Companies in the working group talked about the importance of creating support structures for flexibility plans.

• For example, one company hired a training and scheduling coordinator to manage their new systems. Others employed technology platforms to organize shifts.
• Supervisors also needed to be trained to handle new systems and manage flexibility requests while meeting production demands, the participants noted.

Stay tuned: The MI is planning to release a white paper based on the working group discussions in the fall.

Speaking of the importance of flexibility, a Harvard Business Review survey of 5,700 onsite US workers in industries like manufacturing, transportation and health care found a mismatch between the flexibility options that companies provide and what employees actually want.

What companies are offering: The most common flexibility options that onsite workers reported were relaxed dress code (55%), flexible start and end times (33%) and choice over hours they worked (31%).

What onsite workers want: When asked what flexibility options they would change jobs to get, onsite workers reported increased paid time off or vacation time (57%) and four-day work weeks (44%).

Employee engagement matters: People with engaging work and one week of vacation report 25% higher well-being than actively disengaged workers who have six or more weeks of vacation, according to Gallup research.

• Among those with fully onsite work responsibilities, Gallup finds that those with a four-day work week report lower active disengagement and higher overall well-being.

Which manufacturing sectors experienced the most growth in job openings over the past year? We used Lightcast™ to dive into the 789,969 unique job postings for the past 12 months (May 2022 to May 2023) and organized by North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) codes. In this case, we are better able to understand what sectors are experiencing the most growth. As a reminder, the data get more granular with increased digits.

The top manufacturing sectors over the past 12 months at the 3-digit NAICS level, ordered by the number of unique postings, were:

1. Computer and Electronic Products (NAICS 334) – 103,507 unique postings
2. Transportation Equipment (NAICS 336) – 93,075
3. Food Manufacturing (NAICS 311) – 78,397
4. Machinery (NAICS 333)– 74,193
5. Chemicals (NAICS 325) – 72,254

The top manufacturing sectors over the past 12 months at the 4-digit NAICS level, ordered by the number of unique postings:

1. Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical, and Control Instruments Manufacturing (NAICS 3345) – 66,411 unique postings
2. Beverage Manufacturing (NAICS 3121) – 54,837
3. Aerospace Products and Parts (NAICS 3364) – 40,541
4. Pharmaceuticals and Medicines (NAICS 3254) – 27,442
5. Motor Vehicle Manufacturing (NAICS 3361) – 25,006

➔   The takeaway: Though growth in manufacturing has been broad-based, many of the sectors leading job creation over the past year require advanced skills and yield high salaries. Looking at only the top five 4-digit NAICS manufacturing sectors list above, the median advertised salaries for those five sectors over the past 12 months was $36.12 per hour.  

* Lightcast™ data accessed on June 16, 2023.

The big number: 74.4% of respondents in the Q2 NAM Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey cited the inability to attract and retain workers as their primary business concern, even amid signs of a cooling labor market. This is the third consecutive quarter in which this concern appeared at the top of respondents’ list.

• In the previous survey, more than 59% of manufacturers said that not having enough employees would impact their ability to make investments or expand.

Manufacturing: Manufacturing employment rose by 7,000 in June, continuing to seesaw from month to month over the year to date.

• The sector added just 15,000 workers during the first six months of 2023, slowing materially after adding a robust 385,000 and 390,000 employees in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
• More positively, there were 12,989,000 manufacturing employees in June, just shy of February’s total of 12,988,000, which was the most since November 2008.

Nonfarm payrolls: Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 209,000 in June, slowing from 306,000 in April but still a good figure. The U.S. economy has added 1,669,000 workers through the first half of 2023, a robust pace.

• The unemployment rate edged down from 3.7% in May to 3.6% in June, as the economy remains at or near “full employment.”
• The number of employed workers increased from 160,721,000 in May to 160,994,000 in June, which was not far from April’s record level (161,031,000). Those who were unemployed declined from 6,097,000 to 5,957,000.
• The labor force participation rate remained at 62.6% for the fourth straight month, the best rate since March 2020.

Job openings: There were 604,000 manufacturing job openings in May, down from 668,000 in April and the lowest level since February 2021. Even with the overall labor market remaining solid, the number of job postings in the sector continues to cool notably, as expected.

• Total quits in the manufacturing sector rose to 293,000 in May, an 11-month high. In addition, total quits in the overall economy increased to 4.015,000, the most since December.
• With that said, layoffs in the manufacturing sector have also risen, up to 139,000 in May, the highest level since July 2020.
• Meanwhile, nonfarm business job openings declined from 10,320,000 in April to 9,824,000 in May, a solid reading. In May, there were 62.1 unemployed workers for every 100 job openings in the U.S. economy.

Wages: The average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers in manufacturing jumped 1.0% to $26.41 in June, with 5.6% growth over the past 12 months, up from 4.7% in May.  

➔  Key takeaway: Manufacturers continue to cite an inability to attract and retain workers as their top challenge. While there are signs that the labor market is cooling, both for manufacturers and the macroeconomy, employment remains not far from a 15-year high while wage growth continues to increase very solidly.

Industrial production declined 0.5% in June for the second month in a row, the Federal Reserve reported today, according to Bloomberg (subscription).

What’s going on: “The June index of production at factories, mines and utilities decreased 0.5% for a second [consecutive] month, Federal Reserve data showed Tuesday. Manufacturing output declined 0.3% in June, the most in three months.”

• The central bank’s index of manufacturing output has dipped 0.3% from June 2022, with production hamstrung “by lackluster export markets, efforts to work down inventories and more limited consumer spending on merchandise.”

The details: Consumer goods output declined 1.3% in June, the biggest drop in more than two years and a reflection of decreased production across a wide swath of categories, including automotive vehicles, apparel and appliances.

• Materials output also declined, while production of business equipment was flat.

Some good news: “[M]anufacturing may benefit some in coming months as retailers get inventories more in line with sales and the pace of goods inflation slows. Separate data on Tuesday showed retail sales rose by less than forecast, while an underlying measure of household spending pointed to a more resilient consumer at the end of the second quarter.”