News

In June, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 1.9% annual gain, the slowest pace since summer 2023. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 2.6% in June, down from 3.4% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 2.1% year-over-year, down from 2.8%. Among the 20 cities, New York again posted the highest annual gain at 7.0%, followed by Chicago at 6.1% and Cleveland at 4.5%. Tampa again recorded the lowest annual return, with prices falling 2.4%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index ticked up 0.1% before seasonal adjustment. On the other hand, the 10-City and 20-City Composites decreased 0.1% and 0.04%, respectively. Meanwhile, after seasonal adjustment, the National Index and 20-City Composite both dropped 0.3%, while the 10-City Composite slipped 0.1%. This marks the fourth consecutive month of seasonally adjusted declines for the National Composite Index.

For the first time in years, home price gains are below the rate of inflation. Price growth in the Midwest and Northeast is now an outlier, as several Western markets have turned negative. Cities that saw pandemic highs but now experience weakness include Tampa (down 2.4%), San Diego (down 0.6%), Dallas (down 1.0%) and San Francisco (down 2.0%).

This housing cycle seems to be settling into a similar trajectory that aligns more closely with economic fundamentals compared to the tremendous gains homeowners experienced between 2020 and 2022, where housing appreciation is generally aligned with inflation. Furthermore, demand is reorienting toward traditional industrial centers and away from the markets that boomed during the pandemic.