News & Insights

In December, consumer prices increased 0.3% from November and 2.7% over the year, unchanged from the 2.7% annual rise in November. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.2% from November and 2.6% over the year, also unchanged from the 2.6% 12-month increase in November.

Energy costs advanced 2.3% over the year in December, after rising 4.2% year-over-year in November. Within the energy index, gasoline prices declined 3.4% over the year, while fuel oil prices jumped 7.4%. Meanwhile, electricity prices increased 6.7% year-over-year, and natural gas prices surged 10.8%.

In December, food prices grew 3.1% over the year, after increasing 2.6% year-over-year in November, while prices for food at home advanced 2.4%. Meanwhile, prices for food away from home climbed 4.1% from December 2024, up from the 3.7% year-over-year increase in November. Of the different food groups, beef and veal and coffee continue to rise at the fastest pace, soaring 16.4% and 19.8% over the year, respectively.

The shelter index grew 0.4% from November and 3.2% over the year, the greatest factor in the all-items monthly increase and ticking up from the 3.0% annual gain in November. Meanwhile, prices for used cars and trucks decreased 1.1% over the month but rose 1.6% over the year, while new vehicle prices stayed the same over the month and ticked up 0.3% from December 2024. Relatedly, prices for motor vehicle maintenance and repair jumped 5.4% year-over-year.

Although the headline inflation rate did not accelerate from November, it is still elevated from earlier last year. Federal Reserve officials cut their interest rate target at their prior three meetings, but markets anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee will not lower its interest rate target at this month’s meeting. While risks to the Federal Reserve’s employment mandate remain elevated, so do risks to inflation, and those two risks may be coming into balance again.