Input Stories

In November, consumer prices increased 0.2% from September and 2.7% over the year, down from the 3.0% annual rise in September and lower than the 3.1% advance anticipated. Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to collect survey data in October, the agency used nonsurvey data sources for certain indexes, while other indexes were missing. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.2% from September and 2.6% over the year, lower than the 3.0% 12-month increase in September.

Energy costs advanced 4.2% over the year in November, after rising 2.8% year-over-year in September. Within the energy index, gasoline prices ticked up just 0.9% over the year, while fuel oil prices jumped 11.3%. Meanwhile, electricity prices increased 6.9% year-over-year, and natural gas prices surged 9.1%.

In November, food prices grew 2.6% over the year, after increasing 3.1% year-over-year in September, while prices for food at home advanced 1.9%. Meanwhile, prices for food away from home climbed 3.7% from November 2024, the same as the year-over-year increase in September. Of the different food groups, beef and veal and coffee continue to rise at the fastest pace, soaring 15.8% and 18.8% over the year, respectively.

The shelter index grew 0.2% from September and 3.0% over the year, continuing its downward 12-month trend since peaking at an 8.2% annual gain in March 2023. Meanwhile, prices for used cars and trucks increased 0.3% over the month and 3.6% over the year, while new vehicle prices ticked up just 0.6% from November 2024. Relatedly, prices for motor vehicle maintenance and repair jumped 6.9% year-over-year.

The headline inflation rate moderated some in November but is still elevated from earlier this year. Although Federal Reserve officials cut their interest rate target at their December meeting, markets anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee will not lower its interest rate target at the January meeting. Amid significant divergences in the FOMC’s summary of economic projections regarding where rates are headed, officials are anticipated to assess the incoming data to determine the appropriate timing of additional cuts in 2026.