Economic Data and Growth

Consumer confidence increased 2.2 points in February to 91.2. Among its components, the Present Situation Index declined while the Expectations Index rose as consumers’ concerns regarding the present situation worsened, and concerns about the future eased.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, declined 1.8 points to 120.0. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, rose 4.8 points to 72.0, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation improved slightly, with 28.0% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” up from January (25.8%), while 20.6% said jobs were “hard to get,” up from January (19.0%). Looking to the future, 15.7% said they expect more jobs to be available, up from 14.8% the prior month, while 26.1% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 28.7% the previous month.

Mentions of high prices, inflation, trade and politics continued to top the list of topics influencing consumers’ views of the economy. At the same time, mentions of the labor market eased somewhat in February, while comments about immigration increased. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations remained elevated but were little changed from January, and the proportion of consumers expecting interest rates to remain high persisted. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe a recession “very likely” over the next year fell, and the small share thinking the economy is already in a recession dipped.

Buying plans for new cars stayed the same in February, while purchasing plans for homes were little changed, although they remained above levels seen a year ago. Consumers’ plans for buying big-ticket items overall improved in February, with used cars, furniture, TVs and smartphones remaining the most popular items among consumers. On the other hand, consumers’ intentions to purchase more services declined overall; however, restaurants, bars and take-out remained the top planned service spending category and edged up in February. Overall, consumers’ views of their current financial situation worsened after surging in January, and views of their future financial situation remained weak.