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Consumer confidence increased 12.3 points in May to 98.0. The Consumer Confidence Index rose for the first time after falling for five consecutive months. A rebound was apparent in the responses before the May 12 announcement that paused some tariffs on imports from China, but that rebound gained momentum afterward. The improvement was driven largely by consumer expectations with all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects and future income—increasing from April lows.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, rose 4.8 points to 135.9. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, jumped 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below the recession signal threshold of 80.

All components of the Consumer Confidence Index improved, signaling that consumers are less pessimistic and have regained some optimism about future income prospects. On the other hand, views of the current labor market situation are still poor, with 31.8% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” up slightly from April (31.2%), while 18.6% said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 17.5%. Looking to the future, 26.6% anticipate there will be fewer available jobs in the next six months, down from 32.4% the prior month. Additionally, expectations about future income returned to positive territory, with 18.0% of respondents anticipating increases compared to 13.8% expecting decreases.

May’s recovery in confidence was broad-based across age and income groups, with the strongest improvement among Republicans. Inflation expectations likewise edged down to 6.5% in May but remain elevated, with inflation and high prices remaining a top concern for consumers. Mentions of trade and tariffs were still prevalent in written responses, with consumers expressing fears of increasing prices, but there were also some mentions of easing inflation and lower gas prices.

Buying plans for homes and cars improved materially, particularly after the May 12 tariff announcement. Plans to buy big-ticket items were also up. Meanwhile, expectations for higher interest rates were unchanged. Consumers’ views of their current financial situation improved from April, when it reached the lowest level since 2022. Nonetheless, consumers were more worried about not being able to buy things they need or want than they were about losing their jobs.

Special questions in May focused on if consumers had changed their spending habits or financial behavior recently. More than one-third (36.7%) said they had saved money for future spending, and 26.0% postponed major purchases. On the flip side, 26.6% said they dipped into savings for goods and services. There were sizable differences between income groups, with households making more than $125,000 more likely to save while those under that threshold were more likely to dig into savings or postpone purchases. Higher income groups were also more likely to make advanced purchases ahead of tariff price increases.