Economic Data and Growth

Consumer confidence inched up 0.6 points in April to 92.8. Among its components, the Present Situation Index contracted while the Expectations Index improved as customers’ concerns regarding the present situation worsened and concerns about the future eased.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, edged down 0.3 points to 123.8. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects customers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, increased 1.2 points to 72.2, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February 2025.

Views of the current labor market situation improved in April, with 27.3% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down slightly from March (27.4%), while 19.8% said jobs were “hard to get,” also down from March (21.3%). Looking to the future, 16.1% expect more jobs to be available, up from 15.4% the prior month, while 26.9% anticipate fewer jobs, down from 27.8% the previous month.

Consumers’ views of the economy skewed pessimistic in April. In addition, mentions of inflation, oil and gas and war picked up as consumers continue to express concern over the conflict in the Middle East. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations edged down but remain elevated after a spike in March, and the proportion of consumers expecting higher interest rates rose to nearly 50.0%. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe that a recession is “very likely” over the next year increased, and the small share thinking the economy is already in a recession ticked up.

Buying plans for cars, with a clear preference for used cars, rose in April, and purchasing plans for homes recovered slightly. Meanwhile, consumers’ plans for buying other big-ticket items declined. At the same time, consumers’ intentions to purchase more services fell for all categories but pet care. Despite declining, restaurants, bars and take-out remained the top planned service spending category in April. Overall, consumers’ views of their current financial situation weakened slightly in April, while views of their future financial situation improved.