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Consumer Confidence Falls to Seven-Month Low in November

Consumer confidence decreased 6.8 points in November to 88.7, its lowest level since April. Among its components, the Present Situation Index and Expectations Index both declined as consumers’ outlook regarding future business conditions and expectations for increased household incomes worsened notably.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, decreased 4.3 points to 126.9. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell 8.6 points to 63.2, remaining below the recession signal threshold of 80 since February.

Views of the current labor market situation weakened slightly, with 27.6% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down from October (28.6%), while 17.9% said jobs were “hard to get,” slightly lower than October (18.3%) but up from 14.5% in January. Looking to the future, 27.5% expect fewer available jobs in the next six months, down from 28.8% the prior month.

Mentions of high prices, inflation, tariffs and trade continued to top the list of topics influencing consumers’ views of the economy. Meanwhile, labor market mentions declined but remained elevated. Comments on U.S. politics continued, with increased mentions of the government shutdown. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations increased in November, and the proportion of consumers expecting interest rates to rise ticked down to about 50%. At the same time, the share of consumers who believe a recession is “very likely” over the next year fell, but the share thinking the economy is already in a recession rose for the fourth consecutive month.

Buying plans for cars stepped down in November, as did purchasing plans for homes. Consumers’ plans for buying big-ticket items fell in November, with purchasing plans for household appliances and most electronics decreasing. Consumers’ intentions to purchase more services also declined following an uptick in October; however, planned spending on health care jumped to the second-highest service expenditure. Overall, consumers’ views of their current and future financial situation weakened from October.

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