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Consumer Confidence Decreases Despite Mentions of Easing Inflation

Consumer confidence decreased 5.4 points in June to 93.0. After increasing sharply last month, the Consumer Confidence Index returned to the downward trend from the prior five consecutive months and erased nearly half of May’s gain. All three components of the index weakened, with the largest decrease in the Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions. The decline in confidence was shared by all age groups and almost all income groups. Additionally, the survey registered declines in all political groups, with the largest decline among Republicans.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, fell 6.4 points to 129.1. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, slipped 4.6 points to 69.0, still below the recession signal threshold of 80.

Views of the current labor market situation are still poor, with 29.2% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” down from May (31.1%), while 18.1% said jobs were “hard to get,” down slightly from 18.4% the prior month. Looking to the future, 25.9% anticipate fewer available jobs in the next six months, down slightly from 26.2% the prior month. Additionally, expectations about future income declined from May, with 16.3% of respondents anticipating increases compared to 12.4% expecting decreases.

Although inflation and high prices remained an important concern in June, more consumers mentioned easing inflation, contributing to inflation expectations edging down from 6.4% in May to 6.0% in June. Mentions of tariffs were still prevalent in written responses, with consumers expressing fears of negative impacts on the economy and prices. References to geopolitics and social unrest increased but were still relatively low on consumers’ list of concerns.

Buying plans for cars stayed the same at the highest level since December 2024, but plans for purchasing homes declined. More consumers were undecided about buying big-ticket items than in May. Meanwhile, 57% of consumers expect interest rates to rise, the highest proportion since October 2023. Overall, consumers’ views of their current financial situation deteriorated slightly from May but remained solid.

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