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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. edged down 0.3% to 98.8 in June, after staying the same in May. Over the past six months, the LEI has fallen 2.8%, much faster than the 1.3% rate of decline in the prior six months. For the second month in a row, a recovery in stock prices helped buoy the index but was again not enough to offset falling consumer confidence, weak new orders in manufacturing and rising claims for unemployment insurance.

Additionally, the index’s further decline in June puts the six-month growth rate into more negative territory, triggering the index’s recession signal for the third month in a row. Furthermore, a tariff-influenced slowdown in consumer spending is becoming more apparent. Nevertheless, the Conference Board does not anticipate a recession in 2025, although it expects a significant slowdown in economic growth compared to 2024, with U.S. GDP growth forecasted at 1.6%.

Meanwhile, the Coincident Economic Index ticked up 0.3% to 115.1 in June, after no change in May and April. As a result, the CEI has grown 0.8% in the past six months, down from the 1.0% growth rate over the previous six months. The Lagging Economic Index stayed the same in June at 119.9 and has risen 1.4% over the past six months, fully recovering from a 0.8% decline over the previous six months.