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Economic Data and Growth

Case-Shiller Signals a Broader Housing Slowdown as Annual Price Gains Fade Further

In February, the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 0.7% annual gain, down from the 0.8% rise in January. The 10-City Composite increased 1.5%, down from 1.7% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 0.9% year-over-year, down from 1.2% in January. Among the 20 cities, Chicago posted the highest annual gain at 5.0%, followed by New York at 4.7% and Cleveland at 4.2%. Meanwhile, Denver posted the lowest annual return, with prices falling 2.2%.

On a month-over-month basis, the U.S. National Index moved up 0.3% before seasonal adjustment. At the same time, the 10-City and 20-City Composites both stepped up, rising 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and 10-City Composite both increased 0.1%, while the 20-City Composite edged down less than 0.1%. The Northeast and Midwest continue to outperform other regions, but price declines across more than half of the major U.S. metropolitan markets signal a housing slowdown beyond just the Sun Belt. Meanwhile, in addition to Denver, Tampa (down 2.1%), Seattle (down 2.0%), Phoenix (down 1.8%), Dallas (down 1.7%), Los Angeles (down 0.8%) and Washington, D.C. (down 0.1%) exhibited declines in February.

Affordability concerns continue to be impacted by elevated interest rates, which show no signs of easing. Those concerns have held back transaction growth and kept increases in U.S. home values below inflation for nine consecutive months. Before seasonal adjustment, 6 of the 20 major metro areas saw price declines in February.

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