Input Stories

What’s going on: “With the government shutdown entering its second day and no indications of a resolution anytime soon, economists and Fed policymakers will have to rely on data that doesn’t come from the government” (CNBC).

• Federal agencies, such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis are unable to operate at full capacity during a government shutdown.
• As a result, federal statistical agencies will not release or collect data until the government shutdown has concluded.

The alternative: “More attention may be given to the ADP data this week because the government’s monthly jobs report, scheduled for release on Friday, Oct. 3, could be delayed due to the government shutdown” (CBS News).

• “The ADP National Employment Report said on Wednesday that payrolls at private employers declined by 32,000 jobs last month, signaling the labor market continued to face headwinds in September.”

Why it matters: The ADP report only tracks employment at private companies, while the BLS data covers private- and public-sector hiring. Furthermore, the two reports often differ significantly, making the ADP report an imperfect substitute.