2026 First Quarter Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey: First Quarter 2026
The National Association of Manufacturers Q1 2026 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey shows optimism among manufacturers is rising, with 75.3% reporting a positive outlook for their company, up 5.4 percentage points from the previous quarter. For the first time since 2023, manufacturers’ outlook topped the historical average of 74.3%, and manufacturers expect most indices to improve meaningfully over the next 12 months. Sales and production are projected to rise 3.8% and 3.5%, respectively, up from the previous quarter’s forecast of 2.8% and 2.4% growth.
The NAM conducted the Q1 2026 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey Feb. 10 – 26.
Additional Findings:
- 70.6% of manufacturers cited trade uncertainties as a top business challenge for the fifth consecutive quarter.
- For the second consecutive quarter, rising health care/insurance costs (69.8%) remained the second most-cited business challenge for manufacturers.
- Raw material and other input costs are not anticipated to slow, rising at the same pace as projected in Q4 (4.1%) and ranking as the third-highest business concern at 57.5%.
- A majority of manufacturers (54.6%) report they utilize either Canada or Mexico for critical parts of their supply chains—82.2% of those manufacturers say they source raw materials or other inputs from either country, while 62.7% benefit from a strong customer base across the border.
The NAM releases these results to the public each quarter. Further information on the survey is available here.