2025 Fourth Quarter Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey: Fourth Quarter 2025
The National Association of Manufacturers Q4 2025 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey shows a mixed bag of economic challenges facing the sector. Optimism rose 4.9 percentage points, with 69.9% of respondents reporting a positive outlook for their companies, up from 65.0% in Q3. Yet, in line with last quarter, trade uncertainties remained the top business challenge at 73.1%, with 80.3% of respondents reporting they have paid tariffs on imported manufacturing inputs since the start of the year.
Additionally, rising health care and insurance costs rose to manufacturers’ second highest business concern at 70.2%, with 95% of manufacturers expecting higher health insurance premiums in 2026, projecting an average jump of 11%. A weaker domestic economy and sales to United States customers ranked as the third highest concern at 60.1%.
The NAM conducted the Q4 2025 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey Nov. 13 – Dec. 4, 2025.
Additional Findings:
- A majority of manufacturers (80.3%) report paying tariffs on imported manufacturing inputs since the start of 2025, led by 58.6% of respondents paying Section 232 tariffs, 52.1% paying reciprocal tariffs on other countries under IEEPA and 50.0% paying Section 301 tariffs on China.
- Tariffs are impacting manufacturers of all sizes, with 72.8% small and medium-sized manufacturers with less than 500 employees paying tariffs on inputs this year—alongside 97% of large manufacturers.
- When it comes to hiring needs, 72.1% of respondents cite skilled production workers (technicians, welders and machinists), 60.1% point to core production workers (operators, assemblers and packaging) and 33.5% say they need high-skilled, degreed workers (scientists, researchers and engineers).
- Climate disclosure regulations are costing manufacturers, with more than one-third (38.2%) of manufacturers subject to new international or state laws and regulations requiring disclosure of emissions and climate risks. Of those respondents, 91.6% face increased reporting costs and are diverting funds from productive uses to pay these added costs.
- 82.3% of respondents indicated it is important to their companies for Congress to pass legislation maintaining robust, multiyear infrastructure investment to support manufacturing.