2025 First Quarter Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey
Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey: First Quarter 2025
The National Association of Manufacturers Q1 2025 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey reveals growing concerns over trade uncertainties and increased raw material costs. Trade uncertainties surged to the top of manufacturers’ challenges, cited by 76.2% of respondents, jumping 20 percentage points from Q4 2024 and 40 percentage points from Q3 of last year. Increased raw material costs came in second, cited by 62.3% of respondents.
In the Q1 survey, 69.7% of survey respondents felt positive about their company’s outlook, down slightly from 70.9% in Q4 2024.
If Congress fails to act now on extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, 69.35% of survey respondents said they would delay purchasing capital equipment, while 45.23% would hold off on hiring, 44.72% would stall expansion of operations, 41.71% would limit R&D investments and 40.20% would curb increases in employee wages or benefits.
The NAM conducted the Q1 2025 Manufacturers’ Outlook Survey Feb. 11 – Feb. 28.
Additional Findings:
- Manufacturers expect prices on their company’s product line to increase 3.6% over the next 12 months, up from 2.3% in Q4 and the highest level since Q3 2022 when inflation was still more than 8%.
- Manufacturers expect raw material prices and other input costs to rise 5.5% over the next year. This marks the highest anticipated rate of increase since Q2 2022, when inflation hovered between 8% and 9%.
- Manufacturers expect export sales to increase just 0.1% over the next 12 months, the lowest level since Q2 2020—the height of the COVID-19 pandemic—highlighting challenges in global trade and demand.