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White House: October Economic Data Might Never Be Released


Employment and inflation data for October may not be released at all due to the government shutdown, the White House said Wednesday (CNBC).

What’s going on: “… White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that part of the fallout [from the shutdown] could be lasting damage to the government’s data collection ability,” including last month’s nonfarm payrolls count and the Consumer Price Index report.

  • To compile the employment report, the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys both business establishments and households. While the establishment survey is easier to collect retroactively, it will be more difficult to get accurate and complete data on unemployment from households a month late.

The shutdown’s impact: The shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, could also lower fourth-quarter economic growth by as much as 2 percentage points, Leavitt said.

  • “Earlier in the afternoon, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said the impasse might shave up to 1.5 percentage points from current-quarter GDP.”

Yes, but … “[M]ost economists expect the [shutdown’s] impact to be minimal,” CNBC reported.

  • Goldman Sachs even raised its GDP forecast going into the end of the year.
  • Economists at the firm also said the shutdown will likely have “limited impact” on the quality of jobs data.

What’s next: The September nonfarm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, also delayed due to the shutdown, “could be released as early as Friday but more likely in the early part of next week.” If the October count is to be released, Citigroup economists said it might take until early December to be compiled.  
 

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