News

A day after President Donald Trump’s first address to Congress in his second term, the industry remains on edge amid the growing uncertainty of what’s being called a trade war by some in Washington.

What Congress is saying: We’re starting to see public comments from members of Congress on various topics in the president’s speech on Tuesday. Here’s what they’re saying.

Tax reform: House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) committed yesterday to delivering a comprehensive tax bill to President Trump by Memorial Day, according to MarketWatch. Echoing NAM President and CEO Jay Timmons’ repeated calls for a swift tax deal, Chairman Smith emphasized the urgency of providing certainty to small businesses and working families, stating, “Failure is not an option.”

• “[W]e have to move this one big, beautiful bill as quickly as possible,” he said.
• In recent weeks, Timmons has leveraged the NAM’s public platform extensively—including through the NAM State of Manufacturing Address, television and radio interviews across the country, social media and op-eds in Ohio and Florida—to press Congress to act now and make the 2017 tax reforms permanent.

CHIPS: New Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), the former lieutenant governor of the state, expressed support for the CHIPS and Science Act, emphasizing its bipartisan backing and importance of national security. “For the economic and national security of America, we need to make chips in the USA—I believe this is part of an America First agenda,” he wrote in a statement provided to The Columbus Dispatch.

• House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) indicated to Punchbowl that nothing would be discussed on the CHIPS and Science Act until the president’s FY 26 budget.
• Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) said that the president’s mention of the act in his speech was “not consistent with the extensive conversations we’ve had with the administration about the many successes and future of the CHIPS program and how it helps with our shared goal of creating a robust domestic chips supply.”

Trade and workforce: “As I’ve said, tariffs are a tool in the toolbox, but they must be strategic and support American jobs—not create uncertainty that undercuts our domestic manufacturing,” Rep. Debbie Dingell (R-MI) told the Detroit Free Press. “The domestic auto industry currently relies on an integrated North American supply chain, and our trade policies need to reflect that.”

• Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) zeroed in on implementation of any tariffs. “If you’re talking about tariffs that are going to be inflationary, causing all kinds of retaliation and disrupting the markets, I’m almost certainly against them,” he said in an interview with CQ Roll Call. “However, if you’re talking about tariffs that are used surgically … to be used judiciously and to build the economy, then I’m all for it.”
• For Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND), according to The Wall Street Journal (subscription), “It comes down to how long [the tariffs] would last.” He said you “can’t simply turn on and off an inflationary switch” or flip a switch to build manufacturing facilities in the U.S., “or even harder yet, get the workforce to fill those jobs that would be created, particularly at the same time as you’re shirking immigration.”

Big picture: “Manufacturers are already planning for 2026, and they need the certainty to invest and grow now. We’re seeing bipartisan interest in these priorities, and the NAM is building consensus to achieve exactly that and have even stronger champions for manufacturers in Congress to reinforce what we need to compete and win,” said NAM Executive Vice President Erin Streeter.

The Richard L. Trumka Protecting the Right to Organize Act, reintroduced this week, would harm manufacturers and their employees alike if it passes, the NAM and allied organizations told the Senate Tuesday.
 
What’s going on: The PRO Act, reintroduced Wednesday by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA), purports to broaden labor protections for workers.

• In truth, however, it “would limit workers’ right to secret ballot union representation elections, allow government bureaucrats to unilaterally impose contracts on the private sector, trample free speech and debate, jeopardize industrial stability and limit opportunities for small businesses and entrepreneurs,” according to the Coalition for a Democratic Workplace, a group of organizations representing employers and employees. The NAM is a member.

Why it’s a problem: “The PRO Act is designed to push union representation on workers whether they want it or not,” the coalition said. The legislation would do this by:

• Limiting the right of employees to vote for or against union representation via secret ballot, instead instituting “card check”;
• Limiting employees’ right to free speech, effectively silencing debate;
• Giving the government unprecedented control over private-sector employment contracts;
• Requiring employers to give union organizers employees’ personal information without the employees’ consent;
• Eliminating right-to-work protections nationwide; and
• Allowing unions to choose a bargaining unit that maximizes its chances of winning an election instead of having the National Labor Relations Board choose a unit fairly.

The “ABC test”: In addition, the PRO Act would limit people’s opportunities for self-employment by imposing California’s failed “ABC test” on workers to determine whether they are independent contractors or employees.

• “The ABC test makes it very difficult for someone to work as an independent contractor by defining the term ‘employee’ very broadly,” the groups told the Senate. “Nationwide implementation would forcibly reclassify millions of workers who routinely say they do not want a traditional employee relationship and prize the flexibility and autonomy independent contracting provides.”    

Joint employment: The measure would also replace the existing standard for determining who is a “joint employer” under federal labor law with a much broader, more vague definition.

• “The current standard focuses on whether the potential employers have direct and immediate control over employees. The PRO Act standard, on the other hand, would establish joint employment liability based on indirect or even just reserved control.”
• “It would overturn decades of established labor law and undermine nearly every contractual relationship, from the franchise model to those between contractors and subcontractors and suppliers and vendors.”

The economic impact: The PRO Act would be economically devastating to companies, workers and the country, the coalition said.

• The measure’s independent worker classification alone could cost up to $57 billion nationwide, while its joint-employer standard would cost franchises as much as $33.3 billion annually.
• This would mean more than 350,000 job losses and a 93% spike in lawsuits.

The Manufacturing Institute—the workforce development and education affiliate of the NAM—has announced the recipients of the 2025 Women MAKE Awards, honoring some of the most impressive and inspiring women in the manufacturing industry today.

The awards, which will take place in Washington, D.C., on April 24, will highlight 130 individuals who have demonstrated excellence and leadership in their careers across all levels of the manufacturing industry.

The challenge: The manufacturing industry faces a significant talent gap—with more than 400,000 job openings and an estimated 3.8 million positions needing to be filled by 2033.

• Women make up about half of the U.S. labor force, but less than one-third of the manufacturing workforce. Boosting the numbers of women who choose a career in modern manufacturing is essential to closing this gap—and the honorees of the Women MAKE Awards are leading the way.

The initiative: The MI’s Women MAKE America Initiative  strengthens the modern manufacturing workforce by elevating and highlighting the women leading the industry at every level—from the shop floor to the C-suite—in order to inspire the next generation and help close the talent gap in the industry.

The awards: Each year, 100 Honorees and 30 Emerging Leaders are chosen from the thousands of nominations submitted to the MI by their peers for making significant contributions to their companies, communities and efforts to cultivate the next generation of skilled talent. Since its inception, the Women MAKE Awards have recognized about 1,700 outstanding individuals.

The MI says: “Every year, more women are finding opportunity and breaking barriers in manufacturing,” said MI President and Executive Director Carolyn Lee. “By elevating these outstanding women for their success, we are showing young women—and everyone else—that manufacturing is a rewarding industry with unlimited potential.”

• “At a time when there is such high demand for talent in our sector, these extraordinary women demonstrate the impactful careers that are available. By elevating role models who are paying it forward, the Women MAKE Awards strengthen the future of the industry by inspiring the next generation.”

Manufacturing leaders say: “With hundreds of thousands of open jobs in manufacturing, it has never been more critical to attract and retain top talent,” said Toyota Senior Vice President of Electric Vehicle Supply Susan Elkington.

• “This year’s Women MAKE Honorees and Emerging Leaders are breaking barriers, leading with innovation and proving there is no limit to what they can achieve in our industry. By amplifying their stories and accomplishments, we inspire others to step into manufacturing and shape its future.”

Learn more: Read about the awardees and learn more about the awards gala.

“[T]he next phase of our plan to deliver the greatest economy is for this Congress to pass tax cuts for everybody,” President Trump said last night, reiterating the importance of this key manufacturing policy priority. “They’re in there. They’re waiting for you to vote,” he said.

The urgency: Even before price pressures from tariffs, the NAM’s study with EY showed that failing to act now could cost the U.S. 6 million jobs—including more than 1.1 million in manufacturing.

• In addition, approximately $540 billion in employee wages will be lost, and U.S. GDP will be reduced by $1.1 trillion.

The NAM says: “When President Trump signed these tax cuts into law, it was rocket fuel for manufacturing in America and made the U.S. economy more competitive on a global scale,” said Timmons last night. “That fuel is about to run out as key provisions have expired, and others are about to lapse. …We must ensure these historic, pro-growth manufacturing provisions are made permanent and even more competitive so manufacturers can plan, grow and succeed.”

• “Manufacturers need a deal now as they make decisions for investments in 2026 and beyond,” NAM Executive Vice President Erin Streeter said. “Every day we delay costs investments, jobs and opportunity.”

Making the case: Since igniting the sprint toward a tax deal with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-ID) at the Capitol in January, the NAM has kept the pressure on lawmakers.

• Yesterday during the president’s address to Congress, the NAM leveraged a new tax ad, “When Manufacturing Wins, America Wins,” to amplify its message even further.

Federal prosecutors have been ordered to prioritize the prosecution of “immigration-related violations,” according to a recent memo from U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi to all Justice Department employees.
 
What’s going on: The memo, sent Feb. 5, tasks U.S. Attorneys’ Offices across the U.S. with using “all available criminal statutes to combat the flood of illegal immigration … and to continue to support the Department of Homeland Security’s immigration and removal initiatives.” The offices are also required to track and report immigration-related cases and convictions.   
 
What it means: Under the new policy, employers that knowingly hire foreign workers who lack work authorization will face heightened risks of criminal prosecution.

• There will also be more criminal investigations into employers found to have committed workplace immigration violations, even unintentional ones.
• Companies that have a history of noncompliance will be prioritized for enforcement actions.
• The federal government will lean on state and local authorities to investigate and pursue immigration-related violations. Those that obstruct investigation efforts (which can include simply failing to comply or cooperate) could face criminal charges.
• Prosecution will not be limited to large companies.

Dive deeper: Read our partner law firm Fisher Phillips’ top five takeaways from the DOJ memo.

In December, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index recorded a 3.9% annual gain, up from 3.7% in November. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.1% in December, up from 5.0% the previous month, while the 20-City Composite rose 4.5% year-over-year, up from 4.3%. Among the 20 cities, New York again posted the highest annual gain at 7.2%, followed by Chicago at 6.6% and Boston at 6.3%. Tampa again exhibited the lowest annual return, with prices falling 1.1%.

On a month-over-month basis, both the U.S. National Index and 20-City Composite dropped 0.1% before seasonal adjustment, and the 10-City Composite fell 0.04% pre-adjustment. Meanwhile, all three indexes increased 0.5% after adjustment. Since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, housing prices have risen 8.8% annually, led by markets in Florida, North Carolina, Southern California and Arizona. The National Index continues to trend above inflation but below the home appreciation peak of 18.9% in 2021.

Although the National Index is at a 19th consecutive all-time high, home prices stalled during the second half of 2024. The fastest pricing drop occurred in the West, with San Francisco falling 4.5% and Seattle declining 3.0%. Prices in San Diego and Tampa, previous strongholds, dropped 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively. The Northeast continues to lead with above-trend growth, led by New York for the eighth consecutive month. Meanwhile, Boston reached an all-time high, the only market to do so in December 2024.

Manufacturing activity in the Fifth District improved slightly in February. The Fifth Federal Reserve District consists of Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia. The composite manufacturing index rose from -4 in January to 6 in February. Although activity improved, manufacturers are less optimistic looking ahead, with the outlook for future local business conditions falling from 32 in January to 2 in February.

Among its components, shipments increased from -9 to 12, which led the overall gain in the composite index. New orders rose slightly from -4 to 0. Employment improved from 3 to 9, indicating hiring increased in February. The vendor lead time index dropped from 10 to 2 in February, while the share of firms reporting backlogs remained roughly the same at -6. Companies remained pessimistic about local business conditions, with the index staying the same at -5. The average growth rates of prices paid decreased slightly, while the growth rate of prices received rose in February. Firms still expect both price indexes to increase in the next 12 months.

Expectations for future shipments and new orders both declined but remained in positive territory, suggesting that firms still anticipate improvement in these areas over the next six months but not as much as previously expected. Expectations for backlogs fell, moving from 17 to 3. Meanwhile, firms exhibited a more cautious approach to equipment and software spending, with expectations slipping from 3 to 0. Similarly, expectations for spending on capital expenditures edged down from 3 to 2. In sum, businesses in the Fifth District are growing more hesitant about the prospects for future growth.

In February, Texas factory activity fell amid increased uncertainty, after rising markedly in January. The production index plummeted more than 21 points to -9.1. The new orders index declined more than 11 points to -3.5, after January’s reading was the highest since April 2022. The capacity utilization index dropped nearly 14 points to -8.7, while the shipments index remained positive but slipped from 8.7 to 5.6.

Perceptions of manufacturing business conditions worsened in February, with the general business activity index plunging more than 22 points to -8.3, following a seven-month high in January. The company outlook index fell nearly 24 points to -5.2. Meanwhile, the outlook uncertainty index, which has been volatile in previous months, shot up in February, rising nearly 28 points after a near zero reading in January.

Labor market indicators suggested relatively flat employment and significantly shorter workweeks in February, with the employment index slipping to -0.7 from 2.2, while the hours worked index decreased by more than 16 points to -14.2, the lowest reading since mid-2020. Nearly 12% of firms reported net hiring, while roughly the same percentage (12.4%) noted net layoffs. Upward pressure on prices intensified in February, while wages fell slightly. The prices paid for raw materials index soared from 17.5 to 35.0, while the prices paid for finished goods index increased marginally, from 6.2 to 7.8. Meanwhile, the wages and benefits index edged down from 20.9 to 16.7.

The outlook for future manufacturing activity is still positive, but less optimistic than January’s reading. The future production index decreased from 44.8 to 28.3, with nearly 42% of firms expecting increases in output in the next six months. Similarly, the future general business activity index fell nearly 28 points to 7.7.

Manufacturing activity contracted modestly in the Tenth District in February, with the month-over-month composite index remaining unchanged at -5. Meanwhile, expectations for future activity remained positive. The Tenth Federal Reserve District encompasses the western third of Missouri; all of Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming; and the northern half of New Mexico. The month-over-month decrease in activity was due primarily to declines in nondurable manufacturing, specifically food, chemicals and paper. Most month-over-month indexes were negative, apart from prices, inventories and supplier delivery times.

Production fell four points to -13, while new orders slipped from -6 to -7. Employment declined in February, falling from 1 to -14, as did the average employee workweek, turning negative from 1 to -9. The backlog of orders remained negative but improved slightly from -19 to -12. The year-over-year composite index for factory activity dipped from -9 to -18. Prices received and prices for raw materials increased both month-over-month and year-over-year in February.

In February, survey respondents were asked about their firms’ anticipated reactions to trade policy and their ability to pass along costs to consumers. Firms are split on how trade policy changes will impact their business, with 43% saying there will be no change to demand or revenues, while roughly one-quarter predict demand will be lower (26%) or higher (23%). Meanwhile, just 7% of firms believe demand will be lowered significantly, compared with 1% who think it will be improved substantially. Nearly 40% of firms expect to pass along 0–20% of costs to their customers, while 23% forecast to pass along 80–100% of costs.

Consumer confidence declined seven points in February to 98.3. The Consumer Confidence Index, which fell for the third consecutive month, exhibited the largest monthly decrease since August 2021. The index is now at the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022.

The Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market conditions, fell 3.4 points to 136.5. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, dropped 9.3 points to 72.9 and fell below the recession signal threshold of 80 for the first time since June 2024.

Of all components, only consumers’ assessments of current business conditions improved, and only slightly, with 19.6% of consumers saying business conditions were “good,” up from 18.5% in January. On the other hand, consumers’ outlook for future business conditions turned negative. Views of the current labor market situation softened, with 33.4% of consumers saying jobs were “plentiful,” while 16.3% said jobs were “hard to get.” Consumers’ pessimism about future labor market conditions worsened to a 10-month high, with a higher percentage anticipating fewer rather than more jobs to be available in the next six months. February’s drop in confidence was strongest for consumers between the ages of 35 and 55.

As inflation pressures have heated up in recent months, inflation expectations likewise ticked up from 5.2% to 6.0% in February. Meanwhile, expectations for higher interest rates rose, with more than half of consumers (51.7%) expecting higher rates in the next 12 months. Consumers’ views of their current financial situation softened from January, following a series high, while expectations for a recession in the next 12 months increased to a nine-month high. Nevertheless, buying plans for homes improved, perhaps linked to a decrease in mortgage rates, but plans to buy new cars and other big-ticket items declined. Mentions of trade and tariffs in written responses sharply increased to levels not seen since 2019, likely influencing inflation expectations.